Prospect Review – Buster Posey – C – SF


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The Basics
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
How Acquired: Drafted out of Florida State University in the 1st round (#5 overall) of the 2008 amateur draft
Age: 23

Statistics

2009 – San Jose (California League – Giants High-A) – 80 games

  • .326/.428/.540
  • 13 Homeruns, 58 RBI
  • 45 BB, 45 strikeouts (BABIP: .352)
  • Baserunners: 31 CS out of 63 (49%)

2009 – Fresno (Pacific Coast League – Giants AAA) – 35 games

  • .321/.391/.511
  • 5 Homeruns, 22 RBI
  • 17 BB, 23 strikeouts (BABIP: .359)
  • Baserunners: 8 CS out of 21 (38%)

2009 – San Francisco Giants – 7 games

  • 2 for 17
  • 0 BB, 4 strikeouts
  • Baserunners: 1 CS out of 2 (50%)

2009 Minors Totals

  • .325/.416/.531
  • 18 homeruns, 80 RBI
  • 62 BB, 68 strikeouts
  • Baserunners: 39 CS out of 84 (46%)

Rankings
Baseball America – #1 (SFG – 2010), #2 (SFG – 2009), #14 (Overall – 2009)
Baseball Prospectus – #2 (SFG – 2009), #9 (Overall – 2009)
Project Prospect – #3 (Catchers – 2010), #1 (NL West – 2010), #4 (Position Players – 9/2009)
John Sickels – #1 (SFG – 2010) – A, #2 (SFG – 2009) – A-

Analysis

Posey came into the 2008 draft considered to be one of the top prospects available, and has not disappointed since starting his professional career. Posting an excellent .326/.428/.540 line in High-A, the Giants fast-tracked Posey, sending him to AAA Fresno after the All-Star break in 2009. The move did nothing to really slow him down, as he put up a .321/.391/.511 line in the slightly less hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. The one thing that did surprise me was that he received a September call-up, and then proceeded to hardly play for the first couple of weeks in the Majors.

Posey appears to be the real deal. He draws walks, hits for average, and hits for power. He also has had strong success in throwing out base runners, posting a 46% rate between both minor league levels last season. He’s generally considered to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and at his position. It appears that he is very likely to stick at the position long term. So how does he compare to some of the more prolific hitting catchers of late? Let’s look at each of the following’s last full season in the minor leagues.

Mike Piazza – .350/.412/.587 between AA and AAA (1992)
Joe Mauer – .338/.398/.434 between High-A and AA (2003)
Victor Martinez – .323/.393/.476 between AA and AAA (2003)

Obviously, these are some heady comparisons. Posey appears to be well on track to end up in the same group of catchers as the above mentioned. The question that appears to be left at this point is whether or not he is ready to lead the Giants’ excellent young pitching staff. Although it helps that he’ll have a 2-time Cy Young winner (Lincecum), and some other solid pitchers who have been in the Majors for a while now (Cain, Sanchez, Zito)

Outlook

The Giants really did well for themselves here, in drafting a franchise catcher who is moving extremely fast through the system. At first, I thought he may have been rushed when they sent him to AAA straight from High-A, but he definitely proved that they knew he could hit well enough to play at the level. The Giants have started his arbitration clock by calling him up and putting him on the 40 man roster last season, but since he will most likely be the starter in 2010, it is a bit of a moot point. Posey’s approach to hitting and skill set indicate to me that he should have a very good career as a Major Leaguer.

Prediction for 2010

.280/.370/.500 – 20 homeruns, 75 rbi (MLB)

Expected ETA

2010 – Starting Catcher for the Giants

Tomorrow’s Prospect:  Jesus Montero (C/DH) of the New York Yankees

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2 responses to “Prospect Review – Buster Posey – C – SF

  1. Pingback: How are They Doing So Far? part 1 « Jason's Baseball Blog

  2. Pingback: Prospect Reviews: Midseason Review – Majors and AAA « Jason's Baseball Blog

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