Prospect Review – Kyle Drabek – P – TOR


Baseball Reference.Com Profile
Fangraphs Profile

The Basics
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#18 overall) of the 2006 Amateur Draft by the Phillies
Age: 22

Statistics

2009 – Clearwater (Florida State League – Phillies High-A) – 9 starts

  • 4-1, 2.48 ERA, 61 2/3 IP
  • 74 strikeouts, 19 walks
  • 1.82 FIP

2009 – Reading (Eastern League – Phillies AA) – 14 starts

  • 8-2, 3.64 ERA, 96 1/3 IP
  • 76 strikeouts, 31 walks
  • 3.83 FIP

2009 Totals (2 Levels)

  • 12-3, 3.19 ERA, 158 IP
  • 150 strikeouts, 50 walks

Rankings
Baseball America – #2 (PHI – 2010)
Baseball Prospectus – #1 (TOR – 2010) – 5 star
John Sickels – #3 (TOR – 2010) – B+

Analysis

Drabek spent part of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery,  but was able to have a very productive 2009 campaign, split between Clearwater and Reading. He was dominant at Clearwater, posting a 1.82 FIP and 74 strikeouts to only 19 walks in 61 2/3 IP. He was promoted to Reading (AA) in June, but saw a bit of a dropoff in his control. He still posted a very respectable 3.83 FIP, but had 31 walks in 96 1/3 IP. The increased walk total towards the end of the season is a small concern, but this could be attributable to the jump in innings to 158, and tiring as a result.

Drabek was one of the key pieces to the trade that brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, and had been discussed during the season for that same purpose as well. Considered to be the top pitching prospect in the Phillies system, it was no surprise that any trade that included Halladay would also require Drabek going the other direction.

Drabek throws from a 3/4 arm slot, with a high leg kick when pitching out of the windup.

From MLBFantasyProspects.Com’s profile: Drabek has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, a nasty curve with horizontal-like action, and a developing change. Now, some have suggested Drabek’s upside is limited because he only has two-plus pitches (fastball and curve). Don’t believe the nega-hype. Drabek didn’t start using a change until he reached the professional ranks. Further, his signature pitches are so filthy that he will turn out just fine even if his change tops out as average.

Outlook

Drabek will be given plenty of time to develop in the Blue Jays system, as there are still quite a few young pitchers that are either at the Major League level, or very close to it. I can foresee him starting the season back at AA, and being promoted to AAA if he pitches well. Based on the scouting report above, I can see him being a #2 starter potentially, assuming he can improve his control from the end of the 2009 season.

Prediction for 2010

11-8, 3.50 ERA, 165 IP, 145 strikeouts, 40 walks

Expected ETA

Midseason 2011, with the possibility of 2012 if the Blue Jays do not need him at the Major League level until then.

Tomorrow’s prospect for Review: Brett Lawrie (2B) of the Milwaukee Brewers

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3 responses to “Prospect Review – Kyle Drabek – P – TOR

  1. Pingback: How Are They Doing So Far? Part 2 « Jason's Baseball Blog

  2. Pingback: Prospect Reviews: Midseason Review – AA, High-A, and Low-A « Jason's Baseball Blog

  3. Pingback: End of Year Review | Jason's Baseball Blog

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