Prospect Review - Chris Withrow - P - LAD

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The Basics
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#20 overall) of the 2007 Amateur Draft by the Dodgers
Age: 21

Statistics

2009 – Inland Empire (California League – Dodgers High-A) – 19 appearances (16 starts)

• 6-6, 4.69 ERA, 86 1/3 IP
• 105 strikeouts, 45 walks
• .357 BABIP, 2.96 FIP

2009 – Chattanooga (Southern League – Dodgers AA) – 6 starts

• 2-2, 3.95 ERA, 27 1/3 IP
• 26 strikeouts, 12 walks
• .301 BABIP, 3.68 FIP

Rankings
Baseball America – #2 (LAD – 2010)
Baseball Prospectus – Unranked (2009)
John Sickels – #2 (LAD – 2010) – B+

Analysis

Withrow missed the majority of the 2008 season due to injuries, and so the Dodgers were undoubtedly looking forward to seeing what Withrow could do when healthy. Withrow started 2009 at Inland Empire in the California League, and posted some excellent numbers in a definite hitters’ league (105 strikeouts in 86 1/3 IP).

Withrow’s walk rate concerns me a bit, as he posted 45 walks in only 86 1/3 IP at High-A, and 12 walks in 27 1/3 IP at AA. Both of these numbers seem high, as they both approach 4.5 walks per 9 innings. He is definitely going to need to improve on this if he wants to continue to be promoted. I looked at his game logs, and it really looks to me like Withrow may be trying to pitch away from contact. His hit totals are low, and most games have high strikeout totals, and high walk totals as well.

Withrow throws a low-90s fastball, as well as a curveball and a changeup. His arm angle is 3/4, and his motion looks to be somewhat difficult to duplicate consistently. I do have to remind myself though that Withrow is only going to be 21 this season, and realistically didn’t get a whole lot of development for a full season, and realistically should probably be looked at as a 20-year-old in terms of development.

Outlook

Withrow should start the 2010 season back at AA, and will hopefully spend the majority of the season there. I have to remind myself that in spite of some of my concerns about his control, he’s still very young, and was at a fairly advanced level for his age. I think that if he can improve his control to somewhere under 3 walks per 9 innings, he’s going to be something special.

Prediction for 2010

9-7, 3.75 ERA, 145 IP, 150 strikeouts, 55 walks

Expected ETA

2012 at the soonest. I am inclined to believe it’s a lot more likely that he will not be up until at least midseason 2012.

Tomorrow’s prospect for Review: Casey Kelly (P) of the Boston Red Sox

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