Hall of Fame Ballot Review 2010 – Conclusions

Well, over the last month and change, I have been reviewing many of the candidates for the Hall of Fame. You can find all of the posts in the sidebar to the left, but here’s the recap:

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Larry Walker

We have finally reached the end of the ballot for the Hall of Fame for this season, with another first time candidate in Larry Walker. Walker was an outfielder for the Expos, Rockies and Cardinals from 1989-2005.

Career Accomplishments
1997 NL MVP
5 All Star Appearances
7 Gold Gloves
3 Silver Slugger Awards
.313/.400/.565
383 home runs
230 stolen bases
1355 runs scored
1311 runs batted in
9 seasons with .300+ batting average
4 seasons with 30+ home runs
5 seasons with 100+ runs batted in
4 seasons with 100+ runs
10 seasons with OPS+ of 130 or higher
140 Career OPS+
67.3 Career WAR
4 seasons with WAR of 5.0+

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Alan Trammell

Another candidate on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this year is Alan Trammell, long time shortstop for the Detroit Tigers. Trammell is on the ballot for the 11th time this year, and reached his highest vote percentage last year (22.4%).

Career Accomplishments
4 Gold Gloves
6 All Star Appearances
3 Silver Sluggers
.285/.352/.415
13 seasons with 10+ SB
8 seasons with 10+ HR
7 seasons with .300+ batting average
6 seasons with 125+ OPS+
7 seasons with 5.0+ WAR
66.9 Career WAR

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Lee Smith

Today’s candidate up for review for Hall of Fame consideration is Lee Smith. Smith was the closer for the Cubs, Cardinals, and Red Sox, and also played for the Yankees, Angels, Reds, Orioles, and Expos during his 18 year career.

Career Accomplishments
478 career saves
11 seasons with 30+ saves
6 All Star Appearances
30.3 Career WAR
4 seasons with WAR of 3.0 or higher

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Tim Raines

Tim Raines was on the ballot for the 3rd time last year, and was a candidate I reviewed last year. Raines received 30.4% of the vote last year, his best showing yet. You can read my thoughts from last year below, along with my thoughts regarding Rock Raines this year.

Baseball Reference.Com Profile

Career Accomplishments
808 steals
.294/.385/.425
OPS+ of 123
2605 hits
7 All-Star Appearances
6 100 run seasons
11 40 steal seasons
7 130 OPS+ seasons

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – John Olerud

2010 is the first year on the ballot for 1B John Olerud, who retired after the 2005 season. He spent 17 seasons in the Majors with the Blue Jays, Mets, Mariners, Yankees, and Red Sox, and was one of the few players who made the jump straight from the draft to the Majors back in 1989.

Career Accomplishments
2 All Star Appearances
3 Gold Gloves
1993 AL Batting Champ
2 World Championships (1992, 1993)
.295/.398/.465, 2238 hits
7 seasons with OPS+ of 125 or higher
3 seasons with WAR of 5.0 or higher
4 100-rbi seasons
2 100 run seasons

The Case for Olerud

Olerud was one of the better hitting first basemen of his time, with a beautiful, smooth swing to go with excellent defense at the position. He finished his career with 2238 hits and a .295 career batting average to go with his 3 Gold Gloves.

The Case Against Olerud

Olerud was never considered much of a power hitter, never finishing higher than 24 home runs in a season. While he was generally considered to be a solid player, he was never really grouped with the elite players at his position in his generation.

Analysis

When I first saw that Olerud’s name was on the ballot this year, I was actually really excited. I always enjoyed watching him play the game, and he always seemed to be very relaxed about his performance. It made me wonder whether or not he should be in the Hall of Fame. Looking at his accomplishments, he clearly had a very good career. He was an excellent hitter and a very good defender as well. Not known for his home run stroke, he did still finish his career with 500 doubles, or an average of 36 per 162 games played.

I think his back story is also a bit interesting, as he was drafted out of college and jumped straight to the Majors without playing a single game in the minors. It wasn’t until his final season with the Red Sox where he finally played in the minors. He played 3 games in the minors in 2005, the only 3 of his career. He was also known for wearing a batting helmet in the field, as he suffered a brain aneurysm during his college career.

While Olerud definitely had a great career, I don’t think I’m seeing enough out of his numbers and his career to warrant a vote for the Hall of Fame.

MY VOTE: NO

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Rafael Palmeiro

Another first year candidate this year, and probably the most controversial of the group, is first baseman Rafael Palmeiro.

Career Accomplishments
569 career HR
1835 career RBI
10 seasons with 30+ HR
3020 career hits
.288/.371/.515
4 All Star Appearances
3 Gold Gloves
11 seasons with OPS+ of 130 or higher
6 seasons with AVG of .300 or higher
10 seasons with RBI of 100 or higher
Career WAR of 66.0

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Dale Murphy

Dale Murphy is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the 13th time this year, and received 63 out of 539 votes last year (11.7%). The highest vote percentage he has ever gotten was 23.2% in the 2000 balloting.

Career Accomplishments
1982, 1983 National League Most Valuable Player
5 Gold Gloves
4 Silver Sluggers
7 All Star Appearances
6 seasons with 33 or more home runs
5 100+ RBI seasons
4 100+ Runs seasons
398 career HR
6 seasons with 130+ OPS+
6 seasons with 5.0+ WAR
1 30 HR/30 SB season

The Case for Murphy

Murphy was an elite level outfielder from 1981 to 1987 (7 seasons), providing league leading power numbers (averaging 36 homers per season from 1982-1987) and was a solid defensive outfielder as well.

The Case Against Murphy

His career path tailed off dramatically after the 1987 season, never posting an OPS over 744 after the 1987 season despite playing for 6 more seasons.

Analysis

Murphy seems like he should be a better candidate that he actually ends up being. He was one of the more prolific power hitters during his elite years, but the numbers seem a bit small in comparison to the generation of hitters who came afterward. He was the face of the franchise for some truly horrendously bad Atlanta Braves teams in the 80′s, and was traded just before they really started seeing success again. He seems to be one of the lightning rod candidates who has clearly had a very good career, but doesn’t necessarily stand out as a sure-fire candidate. I think that Murphy seems to get hurt by the fact that he spent so much time playing for such bad teams, and gets hurt in the comparison between himself and the other elite players of his era.

The Hall of Very Good’s article about Murphy from last year had an interesting point:

The following players have had 390+ HR, 160+ SB, and 5 Gold Gloves in their career – Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, Ken Griffey Jr, Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Dave Winfield, Larry Walker, and Dale Murphy.

Murphy was an overall well rounded player who was clearly elite for a substantial portion of the 1980s, and would probably have been a slam dunk candidate had he played for a slightly more competitive team during his career, and to me he stands out as someone who belongs in the Hall of Fame.

MY VOTE: YES

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Mark McGwire

Last year, I went through and reviewed the case for a number of players for the Hall of Fame, and whether or not I thought that they deserved to be enshrined in the Hall. I’ll be doing this again this year, and for players I reviewed previously, I will revisit my vote and see if it has changed in a year’s time. Theoretically, this should remain the same, but there’s always a chance I am now a whole year wiser than I was last year. Today’s candidate is one that I looked at last year, Mark McGwire

McGwire was eligible for the Hall for the fourth time in the 2010 class (2009), and you can find what I wrote last year below. He finished the voting last year with 128 votes out of a possible 539 ballots (23.7%). This was his highest vote percentage to date, but I am really wondering what will happen this year after his admission to using steroids during his playing career.

This one is a little different, as I have changed portions of last year’s with these new revelations. You can see the original writeup here, with the new notes as well.

Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Fred McGriff

Last year, I went through and reviewed the case for a number of players for the Hall of Fame, and whether or not I thought that they deserved to be enshrined in the Hall. I’ll be doing this again this year, and for players I reviewed previously, I will revisit my vote and see if it has changed in a year’s time. Theoretically, this should remain the same, but there’s always a chance I am now a whole year wiser than I was last year. Today’s candidate is one that I looked at last year, Fred McGriff

McGriff was eligible for the Hall for the first time in the 2010 class (2009), and you can find what I wrote last year below. He finished the voting last year with 116 votes out of a possible 539 ballots (21.5%). McGriff really seems like a candidate that some of the writers are going to vote for every single year, but I think his path could follow Don Mattingly‘s, where this may have been his high water mark.