Back in January and February, I reviewed 30 minor league prospects, and made some predictions. With the season over at the Minor League level and nearly over at the Major League level, I figured now was a great time to look back at how I did.
Carlos Santana (CLE)
I predicted back in January that Santana would spend the majority of the season in AAA, and would post the following line: .285/.400/.520 – 25 doubles, 25 homeruns, 95 rbi (AAA). How did his numbers end up looking? .316/.447/.597 – 13 doubles, 13 home runs, 51 RBI (AAA), and .260/.401/.467 – 13 doubles, 6 home runs, 22 rbi at the Majors. And that was only in approximately 100 games total as he suffered that season-ending knee injury blocking the plate. I think that had he stayed in AAA all year, he would have clearly blown through these numbers, and could very well have reached some of these numbers in the Majors as well.
Mike Stanton (FLA)
I thought that Stanton would spend the full season down at AA, believing that the Marlins would not rush to move Stanton too fast and start his arbitration clock too soon. I forgot that the Marlins only sort of concern themselves with the arbitration clock. They were looking for some power, and called him up straight from AA. My prediction for him back in January: .265/.355/.500, 27 hr, 90 rbi (AA). His actual AA numbers: .313/.442/.729, 21 hr, 52 rbi in just 53 games. And also .241/.317/.500, 20 hr, 51 rbi in the Majors. I think that the strikeouts remain a huge concern for Stanton, but the power is most definitely legitimate.
Shelby Miller (STL)
Miller was a very difficult prospect for me to review at the time, simply because he had hardly any innings pitched as a professional. I predicted back then that he would post the following line in the minors: 5-3, 3.50 ERA, 70 IP, 75 K, 35 BB. I didn’t predict a level, and find it a bit odd that I didn’t. His actual line at Single-A: 7-5, 3.62 ERA, 104.1 IP, 140 K, 33 BB. Clearly, both John Sickels and Baseball America knew what they were seeing with him.
Michael Pineda (SEA)
Pineda really profiled to me as a potential candidate for growth, and to me seems to be one of my best calls. I thought he would post the following: 8-5, 2.70 era, 150 k/35 bb, between High-A and AA. Much too conservative, as the Mariners started him at AA and he earned a midseason move to AAA. His AA line: 8-1, 2.22 ERA, 78 k/17 bb in 77 IP. His AAA line: 3-3, 4.76 ERA, 76 k/17 bb in 62.1 IP. I think he’s going to start next season in the Mariners’ rotation.
Buster Posey (SFG)
I thought that Posey would start the season in the Majors, and it appears that the Giants may end up regret not doing so. My prediction: .280/.370/.500 – 20 homeruns, 75 rbi. His actual numbers: .321/.369/.516, 15 homeruns, 62 rbi in 98 games. So another prediction where I was too conservative. In my opinion, Posey’s one of only two candidates for the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Jesus Montero (NYY)
I figured that Montero would start the season in AA, and eventually make his way to AAA during the season. The line to go with that: .330/.385/.530, 25 homers, 90 rbi. What actually happened was that the Yankees sent him to AAA, and while he got off to a slow start, ended up finishing his season pretty strong: .289/.353/.517, 21 homers, 75 rbi. I think that he’s likely to be with the big club next season providing he can get regular playing time at catcher.
Derek Norris (WAS)
Norris missed a lot of time this season due to a wrist injury, and clearly this prediction wasn’t going to happen as a result: .280/.410/.500, 22 homeruns, 80 RBI. The wrist injury appears to have sapped him some, as he hit .235/.419/.419 with 12 homeruns and 49 RBI. I think that next season he will start the season at AA, and it is very telling that the Nationals have already converted top pick Bryce Harper to the outfield.
Eric Hosmer (KC)
I wrote back in January that it was too early to give up on Hosmer, and that the Lasik procedure he had during the offseason could help him. Whether or not it did, my prediction ended up a bit underwhelming: .275/.380/.480, 15 homeruns, 70 rbi (A/High-A/AA) He actually hit well over .354/.429/.545 with 7 homeruns and 51 rbi at High-A, and then continued the excellent hitting at AA with a .313/.365/.615 line and 13 homeruns and 35 rbi. He seems likely to start 2011 in AAA, and could see a call up during the season at some point.
Jordan Lyles (HOU)
After reviewing Lyles during the offseason, I really, really liked what I saw out of him. My prediction: 9 – 6, 3.40 ERA, 150 IP, 165 K, 40 BB (Split between High-A and AA). He did end up splitting time between AA and AAA this season, posting a 7-12 record with a 3.57 ERA, 158.2 IP, 137 K, 46 BB. Clearly a more impressive performance than I had originally envisioned. I think he will spend a majority of 2011 at AAA, as the Astros are really unlikely to compete significantly next year.
Trevor Reckling (LAA)
I really thought Reckling would do better than he did, but I did mention that the control issues concerned me. My prediction initially: 11 – 8, 3.35 era, 170 innings pitched, 155 strikeouts, 55 walks. His actual numbers: 7-13, 6.42 era, 148 2/3 innings pitched, 108 strikeouts, 85 walks. He started the season at AAA, and was actually demoted to AA to finish the season. This was a completely lost season for Reckling, and until he can prove he won’t walk so many batters, he’ll probably remain at AA.