Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Tim Raines

Tim Raines was on the ballot for the 3rd time last year, and was a candidate I reviewed last year. Raines received 30.4% of the vote last year, his best showing yet. You can read my thoughts from last year below, along with my thoughts regarding Rock Raines this year.

Baseball Reference.Com Profile

Career Accomplishments
808 steals
OPS+ of 123
2605 hits
7 All-Star Appearances
6 100 run seasons
11 40 steal seasons
7 130 OPS+ seasons

The Case for Raines
Raines is currently 5th all-time with 808 stolen bases. He won 2 World Championships (1996, 1998), and made 7 All-Star Appearances. He scored 100 runs 6 times, stole 70 bases 7 seasons in a row, and hit .300 6 times.

The Case Against Raines
Raines was essentially a part-time player from 1996 onward, and really started fading in 1993. It is hard to see how he got to 2605 hits without a 200 hit season. His speed faded fast, and his hitting does not appear to have recovered from the missing speed.

That career steal number really stands out to me. I consider the fact that he finished his career 5th all time in such a major statistic to be extremely impressive. All 4 players who finished in front of him are all in the Hall of Fame. Raines’ role was always to be a table-setter, and it shows in his fairly low career slugging percentage. It really concerns me that he dropped off so precipitously after the 1993 season. After 1993, he never played more than 133 games or stole more than 21 bases, and only had one season with at least 500 at bats. That encompasses a period of almost 10 seasons, nearly half of his career.

So what do the season-to-season numbers tell us? From 1981-1987 he was an extremely dominant player. During that time he:

  • stole 70 bases or more each season
  • led the league in steals 4 times
  • hit .300 or better 5 times
  • scored 100 runs 4 times (led the league twice)
  • had an OPS+ of 129 or better 6 times
  • posted an on-base percentage of .390 or better 6 times
  • went to all 7 All-Star games

Simply put, he was one of the most dominant lead off hitters during this period. I am really torn on whether or not he deserves induction. The fact that his career seems to have tailed off so fast worries me. However, the fact that he was able to embrace these roles, and still provide some solid production leads me to believe that he is a Hall of Famer.

My Thoughts This Year

After looking at his case again this year, I don’t really see anything to dissuade me from casting a vote for him for the Hall of Fame. I feel like he’s going to eventually make it to the 75%, as people start to really take another good look at his case. Ranies was an elite level leadoff hitter for a substantial period of time, and has the additional cuonting stats to help back up his case as well. I think he’s still going to be hurt by the fact that his career path tailed off so fast, but I think that will go down over time.


One response to “Hall of Fame Ballot Review – Tim Raines

  1. I knew Rock Raines was good, but didn’t have enough perspective when he was playing. From 1981 to 1987 he was awesome. Is he somewhat like Don Mattingly in that his flame was quite bright, but for a short time? And yet he did continue to play, longer than Mattingly I assume and you’re are so spot on–those career steals are eye catching. I hope he gets in the Hall.

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