Season Preview: AL West

Time to move to my own team’s division, as I take a look at the AL West. You can also take a look at my previews of the AL East and AL Central.

Last Year’s Records
Texas – 90-72
Oakland – 81-81
Los Angeles – 80-82
Seattle – 61-101

Notable Additions

Los Angeles – Vernon Wells, Hisanori Takahashi

Oakland – Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus, Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Josh Willingham, Rich Harden, Brandon McCarthy

Seattle – Miguel Olivo, Jack Cust

Texas – Adrian Beltre, Arthur Rhodes, Mike Napoli, Brandon Webb

Notable Losses

Los Angeles – Mike Napoli, Juan Rivera, Hideki Matsui, Scot Shields

Oakland – Rajai Davis, Vin Mazzaro

Seattle – Russell Branyan, Jose Lopez

Texas – Cliff Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, Frank Francisco

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Who are the Faces of the Franchise? AL West Edition

Continuing on with my look at each organization and their Face of the Franchise, the AL West…

• Angels – I think that at this point, Torii Hunter has taken the mantle of the face of the franchise. He has even shown leadership (whether or not it was his choice remains to be seen) by switching positions last year for a younger player in Peter Bourjos, and likely to remain the same for Vernon Wells this year.

Michael Young’s Trade Request

According to MLBTR, Michael Young has requested a trade, and will only accept a trade to 8 teams. From T.R. Sullivan, those teams are: Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Padres. Realistically, what of those are the best fit?

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Young is currently under contract for 3 more seasons for a total of $48 million. Realistically, unless the Rangers eat a major portion of the contract, the Twins, Padres, and Astros seem like poor fits. But what about the rest of the teams?

Fantasy Rankings in Review: Third Basemen

Back in February, I took my first shot at attempting to rank players for fantasy purposes. After a full season, I thought it wise to take a look back at how they went, and compare them to how it actually turned out and see if there is anything to be gained from it. Next up is the review of my 3B rankings.

My Preseason Rankings

1.     Alex Rodriguez
2.     David Wright
3.     Evan Longoria
4.     Mark Reynolds
5.     Ryan Zimmerman
6.     Kevin Youkilis
7.     Aramis Ramirez
8.     Chone Figgins
9.     Pablo Sandoval
10.  Michael Young
11.  Gordon Beckham
12.  Ian Stewart
13.  Jorge Cantu
14.  Casey Blake
15.  Chipper Jones

Original Draft Series: #4 – Toronto Blue Jays

For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #4: Toronto Blue Jays

General Managers(since 1994)

Pat Gillick (1994): 55-64
Gord Ash (1995-2001): 541-575
J.P. Ricciardi (2002-2009): 642-653
Current GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Team Performance

Playoffs			Division Finish
WC	League	Playoff App	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Last
0	0	0	0	1	9	3	3

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position	Name	Acquired	Years with Org.	Stats with Organization	Left?
C	J.P. Arencibia	2007 – 1st Rd (21)	3	6 gm, .217/.217/.522, 2 HR, 4 RBI	Currently with Org.
1B	Casey Blake	1996 – 7th Rd	3	14 gm, .256/.293/.385, HR, RBI	Selected off waivers by IN – 5/23/00
2B	Orlando Hudson	1997 – 43rd Rd	8	1 Gold Glove 462 gm, .270/.328/.418, 35 HR, 201 RBI, 19 SB	Traded to ARI – 12/27/05
3B	Michael Young	1997 – 5th Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to TEX – 7/19/00
SS	Felipe Lopez	1998 – 1st Rd (8)	4	134 gm, .240/.293/.399, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 9 SB	Traded to CIN – 12/15/02
LF	Reed Johnson	1999 – 17th Rd	8	610 gm, .281/.342/.410, 42 HR, 234 RBI, 28 SB	Released – 3/23/08
CF	Vernon Wells	1997 – 1st Rd (5)	13	3 All Star Appearances, 3 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger 1367 gm, .279/.328/.472, 215 HR, 794 RBI, 89 SB	Currently with Org.
RF	Alex Rios	1999 – 1st Rd (19)	10	2 All Star Appearances 809 gm, .285/.335/.451, 81 HR, 395 RBI, 112 SB	Selected off waivers by CHW – 8/10/09
DH	Adam Lind	2004 – 3rd Rd	6	1 Silver Slugger 475 gm, .271/.323/.470, 76 HR, 270 RBI	Currently with Org.
SP	Shaun Marcum	2003 – 3rd Rd	7	35-24, 3.83 ERA, 559.2 IP, 451 K, 178 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Roy Halladay	1995 – 1st Rd (17)	14	2003 AL Cy Young Award, 6 All Star Appearances 148-76, 3.43 ERA, 2046.2 IP, 1495 K, 455 BB	Traded to PHI – 12/16/09
SP	Ricky Romero	2005 – 1st Rd (6)	5	24-17, 3.95 ERA, 358 IP, 294 K, 148 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Brett Cecil	2007 – 1st Rd (38)	3	18-11, 4.35 ERA, 240 IP, 105 K, 45 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Chris Carpenter	1993 – 1st Rd (15)	9	49-50, 4.83 ERA, 870.2 IP, 612 K, 331 BB	Released – 10/9/02
RP	Brandon League	2001 – 2nd Rd	8	7-10, 4.09 ERA, 202.1 IP, 154 K, 73 BB	Traded to SEA – 12/23/09
RP	Mark Hendrickson	1997 – 20th Rd	6	12-9, 4.94 ERA, 195 IP, 97 K, 52 BB	Traded to TAM – 12/14/03
RP	Alfredo Aceves	Int’l FA – 2001	1	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Purchased by Mex. League – 4/24/02
RP	Casey Janssen	2004 – 4th Rd	6	14-19, 4.12 ERA, 268.2 IP, 163 K, 70 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Kelvim Escobar	Int’l FA – 1992	11	58-55, 4.58 ERA, 58 SV, 849 IP, 744 K, 394 BB	Left via Free Agency – 10/26/03
CL	Brandon Lyon	1999 – 14th Rd	3	6-8, 5.40 ERA, 125 IP, 65 K, 34 BB	Selected off waivers – 10/9/02
BN	Cesar Izturis	Int’l FA – 1996	5	46 gm, .269/.279/.388, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 8 SB	Traded to LA – 12/13/01
BN	Aaron Hill	2003 – 1st Rd (13)	7	1 All Star Appearance, 1 Silver Slugger 748 gm, .273/.328/.429, 85 HR, 350 RBI, 22 SB,	Currently with Org.
BN	Travis Snider	2006 – 1st Rd (14)	4	161 gm, .248/.318/.434, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 6 SB	Currently with Org.
BN	Gabe Gross	2001 – 1st Rd (15)	4	84 gm, .226/.316/.326, 4 HR, 23 RBI	Traded to MIL – 12/7/05
BN	Kevin Cash	Amateur FA – 1999	5	101 gm, .173/.222/.262, 5 HR, 29 RBI	Traded to TAM – 12/12/04

June Amateur Draft

The Blue Jays have done better than just about any team with finding and maintaining first round talent. Last year’s rotation featured 3 first round picks (Halladay, Romero, and Cecil), and this season’s lineup features 3 starters from the first round as well (Hill, Snider, Wells). The only position where they are particularly weak is catcher, simply because J.P. Arencibia has not been called up to stay and start yet for the Jays. The key with the Blue Jays has to be their ability to develop pitching, as shown by Marcum, Halladay, Romero, and Cecil. There were even more pitchers who have been at least serviceable in the Majors who were not included because I simply ran out of room. Clearly, not all the moves have been winners (Carpenter, Lyon, Rios), but the team has done extremely well all the same.

International Free Agency

The Blue Jays have not done a whole lot in the international markets, instead choosing to spend their money on draft picks. That said, there really isn’t a lot to like in terms of international free agents here. Kelvim Escobar is really the only player who has become any kind of success in the Majors, with Aceves limited to middle relief only.

Overall Grade

A. The Blue Jays have done poorly in the international markets, but with the amount of talent they have been getting out of the draft, it wasn’t really necessary to have. They’ve established themselves as one of the premier teams when it comes to identifying and developing pitching talent, but don’t get near enough credit for it. In addition, they have also managed to develop Major league starters at nearly every position on the diamond, with some solid players left in reserve as well. They are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the teams to this point.

Team Preview – Texas Rangers

Roster Makeup
Lineup		Pitching Staff
Pos	Name	Role	Name
C	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SP 1	Scott Feldman
1B	Chris Davis	SP 2	Rich Harden
2B	Ian Kinsler	SP 3	Colby Lewis
3B	Michael Young	SP 4	Tommy Hunter
SS	Elvis Andrus	SP 5	Derek Holland
LF	Josh Hamilton	Bullpen
CF	Julio Borbon	CL	Frank Francisco
RF	Nelson Cruz	RP	C.J. Wilson
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	RP	Neftali Feliz
Bench		RP	Darren Oliver
C	Taylor Teagarden	RP	Chris Ray
OF	David Murphy	RP	Brandon McCarthy

Additional roster information can be found at MLB Depth Charts.

Off-Season Transactions
Key Additions			Key Losses
Pos	Name	How	Pos	Name	How
SP	Rich Harden	Free Agency	C	Ivan Rodriguez	Free Agency
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	Free Agency	SP	Kevin Millwood	Trade (BAL)
RP	Chris Ray	Trade (BAL)	3B	Hank Blalock	Free Agency

Top Prospects: Justin Smoak (1B), Marin Perez (P), Tanner Scheppers (P)

2009 Review

The Rangers came into the 2009 season with the same problem that they have had in many of the past seasons: not enough pitching. They had been coming off of a rebuilding effort, and were unlikely to be particularly competitive in the weaker AL West division. So much for that theory. The Rangers finished 87-75, good for 2nd in the AL West. They were led by excellent performances by 2B Ian Kinsler (31 HR, 31 SB), RF Nelson Cruz (33 HR, 20 SB), and 3B Michael Young (.322, 22 HR). Offense was not really considered likely to be the problem for the Rangers, but first year pitching coach Mike Maddux was able to help improve bring out the best in starter Scott Feldman. Feldman finished with a 17-8 record, leading the staff. The rebuilding efforts also started to show some returns, with SS Elvis Andrus and RP Neftali Feliz both having a large impact on their season. Both players were acquired in the Mark Teixeira trade from two seasons prior.

Team Outlook for 2010

The Rangers looked to help address what was perceived to be a weakness in the rotation, signing free agents Rich Harden and Colby Lewis to help anchor the rotation with Feldman. They will also see young OF Julio Borbon start the season as the starter, and should provide quite a bit of speed at the top of the Rangers batting order. I really liked the signing of Vladimir Guerrero, as he should provide a lot of power out of the DH spot.

The AL West has become surprisingly competitive, as the Rangers finished in 2nd place last year. They actually look like they will be competitive, but I think that they will need ace-level performance out of Rich Harden, and a solid 3rd starter in Colby Lewis. Neither of these things are a given unfortunately. The offense will carry this team most likely, but they’re going to need some excellent pitching. They do have more help coming potentially, although it seems more likely to be on the offense side with Justin Smoak.

Fantasy Outlook for 2010

2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Michael Young, and LF Josh Hamilton are the top fantasy players in terms of ranking. Hamilton is coming back from what was essentially a lost season, and will be moving from CF to LF. Julio Borbon is the reason for this move, and should also provide quite a bit of fantasy value.  On the pitching side, Scott Feldman is a pitcher I would actually be concerned about, as a lot of his fantasy value last season came from his high win total. Another to watch: Colby Lewis is coming off of two very good seasons (albeit in Japan), where he posted excellent strikeout rates. He should be someone to watch for in your drafts as well.

Prediction for 2010

The Rangers have definitely improved since the start of last season, and should still be considered to be working on their rebuilding efforts. They should compete in the division, but I think that unless they have a lot of luck go their way, they are not going to win the division. But look out for them in 2011 as well.

86-76, T-2nd in the AL West

Fantasy Preview – Third Basemen

A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 15 Third Basemen for 2010

1. Alex Rodriguez – NYY
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
78	30	100	14	.286
Rodriguez missed almost 40 games last season, and still put up amazing numbers during that time. I can pretty easily see a return to 100 runs, 20 steals, and even possibly 40 homers for A-Rod. Throw in that there shouldn’t be quite as much pressure on him now that he’s won a championship for the Yankees, and he’s a definite first rounder and probably going to end up as a top-5 player for me.

2. David Wright – NYM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
88	10	72	27	.307
Wright was a huge disappointment for his owners last season, as they drafted him expecting something similar to a 30-30 season. Wright saw a huge spike in his strikeout rate last season, but still posted a similar walk rate. I’m inclined to believe that he’s due to rebound this season, and while his power may not necessarily get back to the 30 HR range necessarily, I can see a 25-25 guy in Wright with a great average.

3. Evan Longoria – 3B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
100	33	113	9	.281
Longoria posted another excellent season, building on an excellent rookie campaign in 2008. Longoria is still maturing, but in the Rays lineup he’s a pretty good lock to provide around 100 runs, 100 rbis, and 30 homers. Throw in the handful of steals, and he’s one of the few 3B who will provide value in all 5 categories.

4. Mark Reynolds
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
98	44	102	24	.260
I talked about Reynolds in the 1B preview as well. At 3B, the power and speed combination more than makes up for the drag he is going to be on your batting average. I still don’t think he’s likely to give you 40 HR again, but 30 HR and 20 stolen bases are definitely possible.

5. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
110	33	106	2	.292
Zimmerman, very quietly, has developed into an excellent fantasy 3B. Realistically, he’s one of only 2 fantasy useful players on the Nats, so he tends to be forgotten. However, don’t sleep on him, as he’s very likely to provide similar production to his 2009 season.

6. Kevin Youkilis – BOS
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
99	27	94	7	.305
You can see my thoughts about Youkilis in my 1B rankings. He’s another player who will provide stats in all categories, and in my opinion is much more valuable if you draft him to play 3B than if you draft him to play 1B.

7. Aramis Ramirez – CHC
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
46	15	65	2	.317
Ramirez spent a major portion of last season on the disabled list, missing nearly 2 months with a separated shoulder. As a result, he may be dropping in people’s rankings when looking solely at his season numbers. Looking at his season splits, Ramirez appears to be fully recovered from the injury (11 HR, .304 from July onward). As a result, I can see him returning to his 30 HR form, and driving in 100 again.

8. Chone Figgins – SEA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
114	5	54	42	.298
Figgins goes from a lineup with the Angels that really was run heavy, to a Mariners lineup that is probably similar in makeup. The biggest difference for Figgins himself is that he’s likely going to be hitting #2 in the order as opposed to leading off, due to the presence of Ichiro. He’s still a threat to steal 40 bags, and should still score quite a bit of runs. My only concern with drafting Figgins is that you’ve plugged a speed guy into a position where there are a majority of power hitters. You’ll want to make sure you get your power in some other positions, potentially 2B, SS or C.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
79	25	90	5	.330
I wrote about the Kung Fu Panda in my 1B rankings. Obviously, he provides more value at 3B than 1B, but he’s going to give you good production regardless of where you play him in your fantasy lineup.

10. Michael Young – TEX
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
76	22	68	8	.322
While Young no longer brings the added value of qualifying at SS, he’s still a solid value pick at 3B. His run total seems a bit low to me, but that is mostly due to his missing a couple weeks of time in September. I think he approaches 100 runs again this season, while posting similar numbers in the rest of the categories. A good solid player who unfortunately probably doesn’t have a lot of upside, but you still need players that provide as expected.

11. Gordon Beckham
Will qualify at 2B after 5 starts
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
58	14	63	7	.270
I wrote about Beckham in my 2B rankings since he’s the presumptive starter for the White Sox there. He’s a definite upside pick, as you’re hoping for potentially a 20-20 player. I think he can do that, and the positional flexibility will be nice as well.

12. Ian Stewart – COL
Also qualifies at 2B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
74	25	70	7	.228
I also wrote about Stewart in my 2B rankings. The warning remains the same – watch to see that he does in fact win one of the starting jobs. I would be shocked if he didn’t, but there’s always a chance I suppose.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
67	16	100	3	.289
Cantu is another under-the-radar type of player, as I really wasn’t aware he had driven in 100 last season or that he had posted useful numbers in the rest of the categories either. I am not sure he’ll post another 100 RBI this season, but he’ll probably be close to that number. His run total seems like it was a bit low as well, and could see that improving into the 75-80 range on the Marlins.

14. Casey Blake – LAD
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
84	18	79	3	.280
Blake quietly had another solid year in Los Angeles last season. He’s not going to provide you with elite production in any category, but he will provide at least some reasonable value to you in 4 of the categories. Another player who’s a better real-life player than a fantasy one. But still useful to be sure.

15. Chipper Jones – ATL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
80	18	71	4	.264
If you’re looking for the Chipper Jones of the early 2000s, you’ve come to the wrong place. At this point, he’s going to give you some power, and will provide some runs and rbi. I’m not sure that the batting average is going to rebound back to the .364 he hit in 2008, or even the .300 range in general. No upside here really, but another useful player. Just hope you don’t need him to provide great production, because that’s pretty unlikely at this point.

After my top 15, there’s a lot of players with minor flaws. You have players like Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre, who haven’t really been healthy. You’ve got younger players like Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnacion, who have not proven that they can play well for multiple seasons. You’ve got Chase Headley and Martin Prado, who have some upside, but only as late round picks. There’s definitely some high-risk, high-reward types out there. But I know I’d prefer to not have to take too many of those types of players on my team.

Tomorrow will be another fantasy preview, this time for SS.