Tag Archives: Rajai Davis

Season Preview: AL West


Time to move to my own team’s division, as I take a look at the AL West. You can also take a look at my previews of the AL East and AL Central.

Last Year’s Records
Texas – 90-72
Oakland – 81-81
Los Angeles – 80-82
Seattle – 61-101

Notable Additions

Los Angeles – Vernon Wells, Hisanori Takahashi

Oakland – Hideki Matsui, David DeJesus, Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour, Josh Willingham, Rich Harden, Brandon McCarthy

Seattle – Miguel Olivo, Jack Cust

Texas – Adrian Beltre, Arthur Rhodes, Mike Napoli, Brandon Webb

Notable Losses

Los Angeles – Mike Napoli, Juan Rivera, Hideki Matsui, Scot Shields

Oakland – Rajai Davis, Vin Mazzaro

Seattle – Russell Branyan, Jose Lopez

Texas – Cliff Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, Frank Francisco

Continue reading

Advertisements

Season Preview: AL East


With Spring Training well under way and the first games starting very soon, I figured it was a good time to take a look at my own predictions for the league, and the changes the respective teams have made.

Last Year’s Records
Tampa Bay – 96-66
New York – 95-67
Boston – 89-73
Toronto – 85-77
Baltimore – 66-96

Notable Additions

Baltimore – Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Vladimir Guerrero, J.J. Hardy, Justin Duchscherer

Boston – Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler

New York – Russell Martin, Rafael Soriano, Pedro Feliciano, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Eric Chavez

Tampa Bay – Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos, Felipe Lopez, Sam Fuld, Chris Archer

Toronto – Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Juan Rivera, Scott Podsednik, Brett Lawrie, Rajai Davis

Notable Losses

Baltimore – Kevin Millwood, Julio Lugo, Ty Wigginton, David Hernandez, Kam Mickolio

Boston – Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, Anthony Rizzo, Casey Kelly, Bill Hall

New York – Javier Vazquez, Andy Pettitte, Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood

Tampa Bay – Carl Crawford, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Carlos Pena, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit

Toronto – Vernon Wells, Shaun Marcum, John Buck, Miguel Olivo, Scott Downs

Continue reading

Original Draft Series: #12 – Pittsburgh Pirates


For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #12: Pittsburgh Pirates

General Managers(since 1994)

Cam Bonifay (1994-2001): 541-688
Dave Littlefield (2002-2007): 349-549
Neal Huntington (2008-Current): 129-194

Team Performance

Playoffs Division Finish
WC League Playoff App 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Last
0 0 0 0 1 2 2 11

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position Name Acquired Years with Org.
Stats with Organization
Left?
C Jason Kendall 1992 – 1st Rd (23) 12 3 All-Star Appearances
1252 gm, .306/.387/.418, 67 HR, 471 RBI, 140 SB
Traded to OAK – 11/27/04
1B Jose Bautista 2000 – 20th Rd 3+4 400 gm, .241/.329/.403, 43 HR, 159 RBI, 10 SB Selected by BAL – 12/15/03
2B Neil Walker
2004 – 1st Rd (11) 6 74 gm, .287/.332/.421, 5 HR, 31 RBI, 3 SB Currently with Org.
3B Aramis Ramirez Int’l FA – 1994 9 559 gm, .263/.312/.435, 76 HR, 316 RBI Traded to CHC – 7/23/03
SS Jeff Keppinger 2001 – 4th Rd 3 No Major League Appearances with Org. Traded to NYM – 7/30/04
LF Nate McLouth 2000 – 25th Rd 9 1 All Star Appearance, 1 Gold Glove
481 gm, .261/.339/.462, 60 HR, 194 RBI, 64 SB
Traded to ATL – 6/3/09
CF Andrew McCutchen 2005 – 1st Rd (11) 5 209 gm, .286/.362/.454, 21 HR, 87 RBI, 43 SB Currently with Org.
RF Nyjer Morgan
2002 – 33rd Rd 7 157 gm, .286/.351/.376, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 34 SB Traded to WAS – 6/30/09
DH Jose Guillen Int’l FA – 1992 7 336 gm, .267/.301/.406, 29 HR, 172 RBI Traded to TAM- 7/23/99
SP Ian Snell 2000 – 26th Rd 9 33-46, 4.75 ERA, 576 K, 308 BB, 693 IP Traded to SEA – 7/29/09
SP Tim Wakefield
1988 – 8th Rd 7 14-12, 4.17 ERA, 110 K, 110 BB, 220.1 IP Released – 4/20/05
SP Bronson Arroyo 1995 – 3rd Rd 7 9-14, 5.44 ERA, 111 K, 85 BB, 187 IP Selected by BOS – 2/4/03
SP Paul Maholm
2003 – 1st Rd (8) 7 45-53, 4.37 ERA, 570 K, 317 BB, 927.1 IP Currently with Org.
SP Zach Duke 2001 – 20th Rd 9 1 All Star Appearance
42-65, 4.42 ERA, 477 K, 244 BB, 913.2 IP
Currently with Org.
RP John Grabow 1997 – 3rd Rd 12 20-15, 4.09 ERA, 326 K, 167 BB, 363.1 IP Traded to CHC – 7/30/09
RP Sean Burnett 2000 – 1st Rd (19) 9 7-8, 4.54 ERA, 95 K, 77 BB, 160.2 IP Traded to WAS – 6/30/09
RP Mike Gonzalez 1997 – 30th Rd 9 7-9, 2.37 ERA, 287 SV, 183 K, 74 BB, 155.2 IP Traded to ATL – 1/19/07
RP Tom Gorzelanny 2003 – 2nd Rd 6 25-25, 4.79 ERA, 252 K, 176 BB, 383.1 IP Traded to CHC – 7/30/09
RP Leo Nunez Int’l FA – 2000 4 No Major League Appearances with Org. Traded to KC – 12/16/04
CL Matt Capps 2002 – 7th Rd 7 19-19, 67 SV, 3.61 ERA, 208 K, 50 BB, 271.2 IP Non-tendered – 12/12/09
BN Rajai Davis 2001 – 38th Rd 6 44 gm, .242/.333/.323, 2 RBI, 6 SB Traded to SF – 7/31/07
BN Ryan Doumit 1999 – 2nd Rd 11 490 gm, .270/.332/.441, 54 HR, 223 RBI, 10 SB Currently with Org.
BN Steven Pearce 2005 – 8th Rd 5 135 gm, .240/.313/.394, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 5 SB Currently with Org.
BN Ronny Paulino Int’l FA – 1997 11 304 gm, .278/.331/.382, 19 HR, 128 RBI Traded to PHI – 12/10/08
BN Pedro Alvarez 2008 – 1st Rd (2) 2 44 gm, .229/.307/.439, 9 HR, 26 RBI Currently with Org.

June Amateur Draft

This team has had a lot of high first round picks in the last 15 years, and they are finally starting to see some production from the,. While they had players like Sean Burnett and Paul Maholm , both of whom provided value but were definitely not the high end players that they had hoped, they are now seeing top tier players in Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez make an impact at the Major League level. Getting some late round values like Zack Duke and Ian Snell has definitely helped also.

International Free Agency

The Pirates have a few high-profile international free agent signees in Aramis Ramirez and Jose Guillen, but unfortunately many of their international free agents have not had a large positive impact with the Pirates. It seems at this point that their most well known international free agents have done well, just not in Pittsburgh. They have been active in a lot of markets, including India.

Overall Grade

B. I like the level of talent that has gone through the organization. But the fact that so many of these players either were given away (Rajai Davis, Aramis Ramirez, Leo Nunez), or did not have any success with the team itself shows why the success level in these past 15 seasons has been less than acceptable. I actually like the progress that the team is making, and with honegrown talents Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez locked in for the next few seasons, the team should start to see improvement in the standings as soon as next season.

The Week in Review: May 31-June 6


If the Playoffs Started Today

Texas Rangers (30-26) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (37-20)
New York Yankees (35-22) vs. Minnesota Twins (33-24)

Los Angeles Dodgers (33-24) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (33-24)
Atlanta Braves (33-24) vs. San Diego Padres (33-23)

League Leaders

Batting Average – Justin Morneau (MIN) – .370
Runs – Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – 50
Home Runs – Jose Bautista (TOR) – 18
Runs Batted In – Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 52
Stolen Bases – Rajai Davis (OAK) – 23

Wins – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 11
Saves – Matt Capps (WAS) – 18
ERA – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 0.93
Strikeouts – Tim Lincecum (SF) – 89
WHIP – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL – 0.93

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Doug Fister, Oliver Perez, Brett Anderson, Luis Castillo, Derek Holland, Jason Bartlett

Return from the Disabled List: Jon Niese, Kelly Shoppach Scott Hairston, Jorge Posada, Franklin Morales, Jim Edmonds,

To the Minors: Mat Gamel

Up to the Show: Danny Valencia

Trades

Top Stories and Weekly Links

  • On Monday, Roy Oswalt was ejected from his start for arguing with the umpire. At least that’s what the reason was anyway. He was yelling at something else (or someone else) on the field, not any of the umpires, and umpire Bill Hohn apparently did not appreciate it. Hohn is looking at some disciplinary action, as it really appeared from the footage that Oswalt really didn’t do anything or say anything that should have earned him that ejection.
  • After being designated for assignment, the Tigers were able to trade struggling starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis to the Diamondbacks for relief pitcher Billy Buckner. It’s kind of sad that his tenure in Detroit ended like this, but Willis has simply not been getting the job done in any shape or form for them. The Tigers also took on quite a bit of Willis’ salary in order to get the trade done.
  • Carlos Zambrano, it was announced, would return to the rotation this week, and ended up making that start on Friday. He went 4 1/3 innings, taking the loss after giving up 3 earned runs. Clearly, this is where he should be pitching, as his contract and skill level both dictate that he is a starting pitcher. Hopefully he will be better in his next start.
  • On Thursday, about 3 hours before their game, Mariners’ outfielder Ken Griffey Jr announced his retirement, effective immediately. I wrote up my thoughts about it here, but the retirement was essentially lost in the shuffle with other events…
  • Also on Thursday, Tigers’ pitcher Armando Galarraga nearly threw a perfect game, if not for a missed call by umpire Jim Joyce. I wrote it up as well, and thankfully now by Sunday the story seems to have died off, and moved forward from it.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez made two starts this week, and his ERA actually went UP to 0.93, and ending his scoreless inning streak at 33 innings.
  • It was announced that Stephen Strasburg will make his major league debut on Tuesday, and it also appears that Marlins top prospect Michael Stanton will also make his major league debut on Tuesday as well.

Scheduled Posts for this Week

Friday will have last week’s trade retro of the Jermaine Dye trade. I am also going to be starting my Original Team series, where I will look at the roster of each team based upon the team that they started to play for initially as a professional in the US. There will be a post up later explaining the series.

Week in Review – May 24th to May 30th


If the Playoffs Started Today

New York (30-20) vs. Minnesota (30-20)
Oakland (27-24) vs. Tampa Bay (34-17)

St. Louis (29-22) vs. San Diego (29-20)
Philadelphia (28-21) vs. Cincinnati (30-21)

League Leaders

Average: Justin Morneau (MIN) – .368
Home Runs: Jose Bautista (TOR) – 16
Runs Batted In: Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 48
Runs: Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – 45
Stolen Bases: Rajai Davis (OAK) – 20

Wins: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 9
ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 0.88
Saves: Matt Capps (WAS) – 17
Strikeouts: Tim Lincecum (SF) – 80

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Koji Uehara, Alfredo Simon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Everth Cabrera, Kendry Morales, George Sherrill, Coco Crisp

Returning from the Disabled List: Mike Cameron, Rafael Furcal, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen, Brett Anderson

Called up from the Minors: Chris Iannetta, Buster Posey, Chris Tillman, Max Scherzer

Removed from the Majors: Dontrelle Willis,

Top Stories and Weekly Links

  • MLB.com has been going back over previous years amateur drafts as a run up to this year’s draft next week. This week they went over the 2005 draft, and was an interesting read.
  • The first set of All-Star voting was announced this week, and you can read what my take on the topic was here.
  • Stephen Strasburg allowed his first run at AAA this week, and it sounds like he’s going to be up in the Majors by the 10th or 11th of June at the latest. After seeing some of the footage of him pitching, it seems like he’s pretty likely to be a solid if not dominant starter once he gets to the Majors.
  • The headline said the most: Ray on Ray crime as infielder Sean Rodriguez was stung by a sting ray while at the beach last week. He’s fine, and back in the lineup already, but I still thought it was pretty funny.
  • Joe West and the Chicago White Sox were both at the center of a bit of controversy earlier this week, as West ejected both P Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen for arguing after West called a pair of balks on the pitcher in the 3rd inning of Thursday’s game. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has a really good writeup of the history of West and his desire to be in the spotlight. I am inclined to agree that umpires fit in that old adage about children that they be seen and not heard. Clearly, the fact that an umpire was the biggest story in a baseball game is a problem. Sounds like all 3 of them were fined for their actions that day.
  • Bill Dwyre of the LA Times has a good writeup which explains how options work for players.
  • For the second time in less than a month, a perfect game was thrown in the Majors. The 20th in the history of baseball, and the first time it has happened twice in a season since 1880 was twirled by Roy Halladay. Congrats to him, and he has to be one of the best pitchers I can remember actually throwing one.
  • I would assume that a lot of teams are going to start looking at walk-off celebrations after Kendry Morales broke his leg on Saturday during theirs. The Angels are likely to be without Morales anywhere up to 3 months it appears. It appears that it was a bit of a fluky injury, but the Angels are still going to be without one of their best hitters for a majority of the remainder of the season.
  • The Giants finally gave into the demands of the fans, and called up top prospect Buster Posey. He responded by going 3-4 with 3 RBI in his first game on Saturday, while playing 1B. Buster Olney wrote up in his blog (subscription required) that the Giants don’t really appear to be making decisions in a thought out process with regard to Posey. I’m inclined to agree, as they sent him down specifically to improve his catching.
  • Scary moment for the Indians’ David Huff, as he took a line drive off his forehead off the bat of Alex Rodriguez. It sounds like he’s doing alright, but the fact that the ball bounced off his head and ended up about 40-50 feet into right field is extremely scary.
  • To make room for Sunday’s starting pitcher Max Scherzer, the Tigers designated for assignment P Dontrelle Willis. Essentially a roster move to get him off the 40 man roster, if no one claims him and his $12 million dollar salary (which seems likely), they could potentially send him to the minors or give him his release. I think I’m with the majority here in wondering what happened to him, and hope he can figure it out.
  • Clearly, Max Scherzer must have figured something out at AAA, as he shut down the A’s and struck out 14 of them in only 5 2/3 innings Sunday in the victory. A bit disconcerting to have done so with 113 pitches, but between 4 walks and the 14 strikeouts, clearly there were going to be a lot of pitches thrown.

The Posts Planned for the Rest of this Week:
Tuesday: Month in Review: May
Wednesday: The 2010 Rookie Class
Thursday: Draft Preview Links
Friday: Trade Retro: Jermaine Dye to the Athletics (2001)

The Week in Review: April 4-April 11


Well, we are one week down in the Major League season, and already we’ve seen quite a bit of things happen of importance.

If the Playoffs Started Today (which clearly they don’t)

Minnesota (WC) at Toronto (E)
Oakland (W) at Detroit (C)

Arizona (WC) at Philadelphia (E)
St. Louis (C) at San Francisco (W)

Last Week’s Top Performers

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – .522/.621/.783, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R
Nelson Cruz (TEX) – .450/.520/1.150, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R
Paul Konerko (CHW) – .316/.440/.789, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R
Vernon Wells (TOR) – .350/.500/.950, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R
Rajai Davis (OAK) – .313/.333/.438, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R, 4 SB

Roy Halladay (PHI) – 2 W, 16 IP, 0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 17 K, 2 BB
Mark Buehrle (CHW) – 2 W, 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 4 K, 3 BB
Tim Lincecum (SF) – 2 W, 14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 17 K, 1 BB
Jon Rauch (MIN) – 4/4 saves, 4 K, 4 IP

Roster Movement and Job Changes

  • Frank Francisco has already been removed as the closer for the Rangers, and replaced with Neftali Feliz.
  • Mike Gonzalez has been removed as the closer for the Orioles, but is likely to get his job back later this week. Jim Johnson appears to be the favorite to receive any save chances that may occur until then.
  • Jarrod Saltalamacchia was placed on the disabled list, and was replaced in the lineup by Taylor Teagarden.
  • Miguel Montero was also placed on the disabled list with a torn meniscus, and could be out for a large portion of the season. Chris Snyder was called on to replace him in the lineup.

Top Rookie Performances

  • Jason Heyward made his presence known on Opening Day, homering on the first swing of his career off of Cubs’ pitcher Carlos Zambrano. His line for the week: .292/.370/.708, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R
  • Mike Leake made his professional debut on Sunday, throwing 6 2/3 IP and allowing only 1 ER.

Overall, it was an interesting week of baseball, and clearly big things are coming from rookie Jason Heyward. I would be shocked if he doesn’t end up winning the Rookie of the Year award. Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman also both made their professional debuts on Sunday (Strasburg in AA, Chapman in AAA), and both pitched very well.

The one thing I am really looking forward to seeing today is the first game at the new Target Field. The place looks like it’s a really beautiful ball park, and it sounds like the weather is going to cooperate for the home opener.

Team Preview – Oakland Athletics


Roster Makeup
Lineup Pitching Staff
Pos Name Role Name
C Kurt Suzuki SP 1 Ben Sheets
1B Daric Barton SP 2 Justin Duchscherer
2B Mark Ellis SP 3 Brett Anderson
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff SP 4 Trevor Cahill
SS Cliff Pennington SP 5 Dallas Braden
LF Rajai Davis Bullpen
CF Coco Crisp CL Andrew Bailey
RF Ryan Sweeney RP Brad Ziegler
DH Jack Cust RP Joey Devine
Bench RP Michael Wuertz
IF Jake Fox RP Craig Breslow
IF Eric Chavez RP Gio Gonzalez

Additional roster information can be found at MLB Depth Charts.

Off-Season Transactions
Key Additions Key Losses
Pos Name How Pos Name How
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff Trade (SD) OF Aaron Cunningham Trade (SD)
SP Ben Sheets Free Agency OF Scott Hairston Trade (SD)
IF Jake Fox Trade (CHC)

Top Prospects: Chris Carter (1B), Michael Taylor (OF), Michael Ynoa (P), Grant Green (SS), Max Stassi (C)

2009 Review

The Athletics came into the 2009 season with the hopes that they would be able to compete in what appeared to be a weakened AL West. They had made the blockbuster trade to acquire OF Matt Holliday in the offseason, and had made some potentially excellent value signings in SS Orlando Cabrera and 1B Jason Giambi. However, the team was once again decimated by injuries, and quickly fell out of contention. By July, the discussion was when the A’s would trade free-agent-to-be Matt Holliday, not if. They were able to get some solid return on trades including Holliday and SS Orlando Cabrera also.

The A’s did have some bright spots during the season. SP Josh Outman pitched well (4-1, 3.48) prior to getting hurt. SP Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06) and SP Trevor Cahill (10-13, 4.63) both pitched well in their first full season. The standout, to be sure, was AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey (6-3, 1.84, 26 sv). On the offense, OF Rajai Davis (.305, 41 SB) and C Kurt Suzuki (.274, 15 HR) were the shining stars.

Team Outlook for 2010

As has been the problem in recent years, again coming into 2010 the A’s look strapped for offense. They are hopeful that IF Eric Chavez will be able to provide some production, whether it be at 3B or somewhere else on the diamond. They brought back OF/DH Jack Cust, who should continue to provide some solid power, even at the cost of a low batting average. A full season of SS Cliff Pennington and OF Rajai Davis will also be a welcome addition.

This really looks like a team that could compete, but only if everything falls their way. They need an All-Star caliber season out of free agent signee Ben Sheets, and improvements across the entirety of the pitching staff. They need 1B Daric Barton to return to the form that made him a top prospect. And they need pretty much everyone else in the lineup to improve again this season, whether it be through health or through better production. If this doesn’t happen, look for the A’s to deal Sheets, and potentially Justin Duchscherer as well at the trade deadline.

Fantasy Outlook for 2010

The A’s are a bit shallow when it comes to fantasy talent. C Kurt Suzuki, OF Rajai Davis, SP Brett Anderson and CL Andrew Bailey are probably the top talents. SP Ben Sheets remains a very high-upside, high-risk player, but could definitely pay off for fantasy owners. In deeper leagues, 2B Mark Ellis and SS Cliff Pennington could potentially provide value, as well as SP Dallas Braden and Justin Duchscherer.

Prediction for 2010

The A’s simply haven’t gotten better by enough in my opinion to make a legitimate run at the division title. The rest of the division is simply too much better at this point. They will do well to continue letting their top prospects develop, and hopefully will compete in 2011.

79-83, 4th in the AL West

Fantasy Preview – Outfielders


A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 45 Outfielders for 2010

1. Ryan Braun – MIL
R HR RBI SB AVG
113 32 114 20 .320
What’s not to love about Ryan Braun the fantasy outfielder? He gives you elite runs and RBI, excellent power and batting average, and great speed. And he’s still young, and has the potential to improve even more. Seriously, Braun is a top-5 talent right now for fantasy, and would definitely be on the short list of players I would want to start a franchise around. I am extremely confident that Braun could give you all those stats again in 2010.


2. Matt Kemp – LAD
R HR RBI SB AVG
97 26 101 34 .297
As good as Braun has been, Kemp vaulted up into the same tier after his excellent 2009 season. Kemp is another top-10 type player who is going to provide you great value in all 5 categories. Honestly, I think that Kemp would actually put up better numbers than Braun if he didn’t play so many of his games in the spacious parks of the NL West. And he’s only going to be 25 to start the 2010 season. Another player on the short list to start a franchise around.


3. Matt Holliday – STL
R HR RBI SB AVG
94 24 109 14 .313
Holliday started off slow last season while in Oakland, but really turned it up once he arrived in St. Louis. I’m sure that having that Pujols guy as protection for you in the batting order doesn’t hurt, but I think that the Holliday we saw in the second half is legit. I can see him posting another season of 100 runs scored, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and probably 10 steals, all while hitting around .320 again. I don’t think that Holliday has any drop-off related to the gigantic contract that he signed in the offseason, but it may be something to watch for.


4. Carl Crawford – TAM
R HR RBI SB AVG
96 15 68 60 .305
I put Crawford here because I think there is still some upside for him. I think that he’s probably not going to hit more than the 15 HR he hit last season, but I think there’s actually the potential for his SB total to increase on the career high he set last season. An elite basestealer who I believe has the potential to approach the 75-80 range, and post solid-to-great values in some other categories, and there’s a lot to like here. Something to keep an eye on will be his contract situation, as there remains the possibility for him to be traded midseason if the Rays fall out of it and cannot get him signed to an extension.


5. Justin Upton – ARI
R HR RBI SB AVG
84 26 86 20 .300
Upton really started showing us the potential we had all been hearing about last season. Despite missing almost 3 weeks in August due to injury, he still posted a 20-20 season, and was on pace to score 100 runs and drive in 100 also. And he’s still only going to be 22 years old this season. I think he probably has a 30-30 season in him at some point, but for this season, I think he probably posts a 25-20 season. He’s missed time in each of the last 2 seasons related to strains, so I’d be at least aware of that possibility, but I wouldn’t put a lot of weight into it when you’re drafting him.


6. Torii Hunter – LAA
R HR RBI SB AVG
74 22 90 18 .299
This is probably where you ask how on earth I can have Hunter this high. He missed over 30 games last season, and still put up an excellent season. While I don’t think that he necessarily will hit quite as well as he did last year, I can see a 90 run, 27 HR, 100+ RBI, 20 SB season with a .290 average. I’m a sucker for players that contribute well to all 5 categories. Although that could be all fantasy players. The Angels will look to him to really lead this team, as Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero are both gone. This is Hunter’s team, and I think he’ll thrive in the role.


7. Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS
R HR RBI SB AVG
94 8 60 70 .301
Elite basestealer. Normally this is not going to be enough to get a ranking nearly this high. (Keep an eye out how much further Michael Bourn is to see that). But Ellsbury drives in runs at a reasonable rate, scores runs at a great rate, hits for a high average, and even provides some power. I think that if you draft Ellsbury, you’re pretty much able to ignore speed for quite a while after that. I think there’s actually some room for growth in his numbers this season with the changes that they have made to the lineup in Boston.


8. Jayson Werth – PHI
R HR RBI SB AVG
98 36 99 20 .268
I didn’t realize how good of a 2009 season that Werth had. He saw a spike in his fly-ball percentage (44% LY vs. 40% career), which probably lead to the increased homerun total. I don’t think he necessarily hits 36 again, but I think a 30-20 season is very reachable for Werth. The batting average is probably going to be in the same range, but with him likely to approach 100 runs and 100 RBI again, there’s quite a bit to like. I don’t necessarily prescribe to this idea, but he is also in a contract year. Something to file away in the back of  your mind.



I think this starts the next tier of outfielders. Werth was probably the last of the “elite” outfielders, in my opinion.

9. Grady Sizemore – CLE
R HR RBI SB AVG
73 18 64 13 .248
Sizemore probably hurt some of your fantasy teams pretty bad last year. Try to remember that the stats he didn’t give you last year have no affect on the quality he could potentially bring you this season. After offseason elbow and abdomen surgery, Sizemore has been cleared to practice at full-speed. I think that he sees a rebound to numbers close to his 2008 season, when he was a 30-30 outfielder. The slight risk I see based on the injuries of last year are what keep me from putting Sizemore back into the top 5 for outfielders.


10. Adam Lind – TOR
R HR RBI SB AVG
93 35 114 1 .305
Lind was one of the few bright spots on the 2009 Blue Jays, as he posted great numbers across the board. You’re not going to get speed from him, but the high average and excellent power more than make up for it. I think that Lind has a very good chance of repeating his 2009 season. He will be 26 this season, and I think that at some point in his career he’s going to top 40 HR in a season.


11. Bobby Abreu – LAA
R HR RBI SB AVG
96 15 103 30 .293
Abreu is one of those players who never really comes to mind when talk begins of the best fantasy players, and the only reason I can think that is lies with his homerun total. He’s not particularly likely to hit even as many as 20 homeruns anymore, but he’s a professional hitter. He’s going to hit right around .300, score right around 100 runs, drive in right around 100 RBI, and steal between 25 and 30 bases. A very solid outfielder.


12. Ben Zobrist – TAM
Also qualifies at 2B and SS
R HR RBI SB AVG
91 27 91 17 .297
I also wrote about Zobrist in my 2B rankings. I think I have him ahead of some of the outfielders due simply to the positional eligibility he provides. It seems unlikely to me that any team is going to be using him in the OF, but there’s always the chance.


13. Andre Ethier – LAD
R HR RBI SB AVG
92 31 106 6 .272
The Dodgers have some pretty good outfielders, don’t they? Ethier posted career highs in runs, HR and RBI last season. I think there’s actually room for improvement on the batting average front as well, which could very well leave you with an outfielder with 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB and a .285 average. Which also seems amazing considering all the time spent in the parks of the NL West. Ethier seems like he will be a hot commodity on draft day, and could go earlier than anticipated. Those owners may well end up extremely happy with that decision.


14. Curtis Granderson – NYY
R HR RBI SB AVG
91 30 71 20 .249
I think that Granderson has an even bigger season now that he’s playing at new Yankee Stadium. The place played like a bandbox last season, and I think there’s a very good possibility that between that and being in the better Yankee lineup, Granderson scores 100 runs, hits 35 HR, and drives in 90 runs. Even the batting average seems like it has the potential to head up to the .265-.270 range.


15. Shin-Soo Choo – CLE
R HR RBI SB AVG
87 20 86 21 .300
Choo helped to make up for some of the dropoff in performance from Grady Sizemore last year, and I think he actually can build on this performance. I can see getting closer to 100 Runs and RBI this season, providing the Indians lineup performs even slightly better than last year. Something interesting about Choo: At some point before he turns 30, he’s required to do 2 years of military service since he is a citizen of South Korea. It has happened in the past that players have been excused from this, but it’s something to keep an eye on if you are playing in a keeper league.


16. Adam Dunn – WAS
Also Qualifies at 1B
R HR RBI SB AVG
81 38 105 0 .267
I wrote about Dunn in my 1B rankings. He’s a lock to give you 35+ HR and 100+ RBI. Even the run total could see improvement on last year. Quietly, a very solid player.


17. Jason Bay – NYM
R HR RBI SB AVG
103 36 119 13 .267
I don’t think that Jason Bay gives you these numbers again. If I did, he’d be in my top 10 outfielders. I think he sees a drop off in runs (probably to the 85-90 range), HR (probably toward 25-30), and RBI (probably to the 90-95 range). I just don’t have a whole lot of faith in the idea that Jason was not helped by playing at Fenway Park. Just remember that when you’re drafting him, you’re probably not going to get the same stats as last season.


18. Ichiro Suzuki – SEA
R HR RBI SB AVG
88 11 48 26 .352
Ichiro remains a hitting machine, posting a .352 average and 225 hits despite missing almost 20 games during the span of the season. I think that he approaches 100 runs again, and could reach 40 steals potentially. But I wouldn’t bank on more than 25 steals and 8 homers out of Ichiro. He seems to be able to hit homers when he desires to, but is just as happy getting singles and stealing the bases instead. Pairing him with a high-power, low average group of hitters could be a good strategy to use Ichiro with.



I’d say that at this point, nearly everyone in this next group could be moved around based on what you think you need at that point in your draft. They’re all very similar to me in terms of value, and it’s really your preference.

19. Carlos Beltran – NYM
R HR RBI SB AVG
50 10 48 11 .325
Beltran missed half of the season last year due to injury, and was having a very good season when he got hurt. If he’s 100% healthy, I could see him returning to his 100 run, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 20 steal form of previous years. I think that the ranking of him here is very aggressive considering that he seems unlikely to stay healthy for the full season. Definitely a lot of upside, and possibly a top-10 outfielder if he meets that upside.


20. Shane Victorino – PHI
R HR RBI SB AVG
102 10 62 25 .292
Victorino had a good well-rounded season, posting solid numbers in all categories. I think that Victorino is a lock to score 100 runs again in that powerful Phillies lineup. I also think he could steal over 30 bases again this season, and even possibly hit a few more homeruns as well.


21. Nelson Cruz – TEX
R HR RBI SB AVG
75 33 76 20 .260
I had no idea that Cruz had this good of a season last year. 2009 was really the first time Cruz got a full season at the Majors, and he provided a solid season as a result. My biggest concern with Cruz would be that he may have already peaked, as he turned 29 during the 2009 season. I think that he has some room for growth this year in batting average, and also possibly in runs as well.


22. Carlos Lee – HOU
R HR RBI SB AVG
65 26 102 5 .300
Lee isn’t going to steal double digit bases any more, and he seems really unlikely to score 100 runs again. He seems like an ideal candidate for the “Name not performance” award. He does have some good solid value still, as he’s practically a lock to hit 30 HR and 100 RBI with a .300 average. But I don’t think he’s a top-10 outfielder anymore, and it seems like there’s bound to be someone who will draft him like he is. I do think he does score closer to 80 runs this season as well, which still makes him a solid fantasy outfielder.


23. Michael Cuddyer – MIN
Also qualifies at 1B
R HR RBI SB AVG
93 32 94 6 .276
I originally had thought about Cuddyer as a candidate for my top-15 first basemen, but he ended up in the notes at the bottom instead. Cuddyer had a very good year last year, posting a career high in HR last season. I think he can repeat similar power (probably 30 or so), and conceivably repeat similar numbers in all other categories as well. I think he’s also has a pretty good chance at getting to 100 runs and 100 rbi again this season. Something to watch for: Cuddyer is going into the season as the starting RF, but has also played 1B and 3B previously for the Twins. If Nick Punto struggles really badly, I could see them conceivably moving Cuddyer if they feel that they can get better production with Jason Kubel in RF and Jim Thome as the DH.


24. Raul Ibanez – PHI
R HR RBI SB AVG
93 34 93 4 .272
Ibanez posted an amazing first half of the season, showing quite a bit of power (22 HR through June), but fell off a bit in the second half. That split concerns me, as he hit 12 in the second half. It is what keeps me from ranking him higher, as I think he’s probably more likely to hit 25 HR than 35. Ibanez will be 38 years old by the end of the 2010 season, and I just don’t think he can keep up this kind of performance for another season.


25. Adam Jones – BAL
R HR RBI SB AVG
83 19 70 10 .277
Adam Jones is already showing just how good the return was on the Erik Bedard trade. He only played in 119 games last season, and I think that if he can stay healthy for a full season, he will post a 25-15 season with 90+ runs and RBI. The key to this whole theory being that he can stay healthy. Just remember to include that in your thoughts when drafting Jones.


26. Jason Kubel – MIN
R HR RBI SB AVG
73 28 103 1 .300
Kubel posted what was easily his best season to this point. The power is legitimate, and I can see him being good for 100 RBI again. I’m not 100% sold that he can repeat his batting average, partially due to a jump in his BABIP (.327 in ’09 compared to .295 in ’08 and .305 in ’07). While it’s not a huge spike, it could very well be the difference between him posting a .295 average and a .275 average. I do think that the run total could potentially see a little bit of growth, but probably not a whole lot more than 80 or so. He’s another player who I think could be forgotten about on draft day.


27. Hunter Pence – HOU
R HR RBI SB AVG
76 25 72 14 .282
Pence looks to me like he’s got a pretty good chance of repeating his 2009 season, as he essentially repeated his 2008 season, but with a slightly higher batting average. Pence was able to cut down a bit on his strikeouts in 2009 (18% vs. 21% career), and also increased his walk rate as well. I think that the thing that really appears to be holding Pence back is his own team. He really doesn’t seem likely to improve his run or RBI totals with the lineup that the Astros have built. It just doesn’t seem like it’s going to be that good.


28. Manny Ramirez – LAD
R HR RBI SB AVG
62 19 63 0 .290
Ramirez really wore down at the end of last season (.255/.379/.459 in the 2nd half), and that concern keeps me from ranking him too highly. Obviously, there’s a huge amount of upside possible with Ramirez, as he could conceivably post a 100-30-100-.300 season. I just won’t be the one to pay for it, because I’m a little wary of that not happening.  But if you’ve gotten some players with low risk, he could be worth it when he’s going to be drafted.


29. Andrew McCutchen – PIT
R HR RBI SB AVG
74 12 54 22 .286
McCutchen only played in 108 games last season, due to not being called up until the beginning of June. Once there, he cemented himself as the starting center fielder for the years to come in Pittsburgh. McCutchen could conceivably get to 100 runs, 20 homers, 80 rbi, and 30 steals if it all falls correctly for him. He’s a very good young player, and he’s only going to get better. He may see a little bit of an adjustment period with it being his sophomore season, but I think he eventually becomes a top-15 outfielder on a consistent basis.


30. Michael Bourn – HOU
R HR RBI SB AVG
97 3 35 61 .285
The speed is legitimate. Beyond that, it’s all a bit risky to me. He posted a career high batting average of .285 backed by a BABIP of .366. I think that there’s some chance of regression, but the .366 BABIP is not brutally out of line with his minor league numbers (.335 at AA, .353 at AAA). He’s not going to provide a lot of RBI or even more than the 3 HR he hit last season. But I think there’s still a chance he steals even more bases. Just try to temper your expectations on Bourn. The Astros’ lineup worries me a bit still, but as the leadoff hitter he should have the best chance to score of anyone on that team.


31. Nate McLouth – ATL
R HR RBI SB AVG
86 20 70 19 .256
I actually like McLouth a lot for this season. Providing that you can get him at the right point in your draft. He missed some time last season, and could see a return to a 20-20 season again. The batting average is a bit of a drag, and it doesn’t appear to be that far out of his expected range unfortunately. He posted similar per-game numbers with both teams last season, so I’m not inclined to believe that he’s going to post a much better season due to spending the full year in Atlanta.


32. Carlos Quentin – CHW
R HR RBI SB AVG
47 21 56 3 .236
Quentin is another player who is coming back from an injury, and missed quite a bit of time as a result. He also posted an extremely low BABIP last season (.221 vs .278 in 2008), which should lead him to an increase in batting average if he regresses closer to his norm. I think that there’s a lot of upside here as well, with the potential for a 100-30-100 season out of Quentin. But he’s missed time in both seasons with the White Sox due to injuries, and the concern around these leads me to rank him lower than his talent probably would justify. I would want the potential to be that much higher as a result.



From this point on, you’re really getting into need. For me, all the players remaining are all extremely similar in terms of the value they provide to a fantasy team. Just figure out where you are needing some stats, and go from there.

33. Carlos Gonzalez – COL
R HR RBI SB AVG
53 13 29 16 .284
Gonzalez appears to finally be showing the promise that made him the highlight of both the Dan Haren and Matt Holliday trades. Despite only playing in 89 games last year, he still posted excellent numbers. And he comes into Spring Training with what appears to be a very good chance to be an everyday player. In a full season, I think he can post 100 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, and 25 SB with a good average. The only real concern I have for Gonzalez is that the Rockies seem to have too many solid outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, Fowler, Smith), and as a result could see a loss of some playing time potentially for Gonzalez. Something to monitor in Spring Training if you get him. But I love the upside, and think he’s going to be extremely popular this season.


34. Johnny Damon – DET
R HR RBI SB AVG
107 24 82 12 .282
I don’t believe. He’s not going back to the Yankees, and I don’t believe in the homeruns or the runs scored based on him not being there. Someone is probably going to get a decent value on him, as he’s still out there as of this writing. Once he signs,  I think that he could conceivably score about 85-90 runs, hit 15-20 HR, and steal 10+ bases. But I don’t think that there’s a lot of upside for him without playing in that Yankee juggernaut.


35. Nick Markakis – BAL
R HR RBI SB AVG
94 18 101 6 .293
Markakis is one of those players that I think ends up doing well on his name, as opposed to his actual numbers. I don’t see a full repeat of the numbers he posted last season, but I can see another 85 runs and 90 RBI season. The problem I keep running into is the power. Even with a spike of almost 8% in his fly ball rate, he hit even less homeruns. There’s still the potential for growth since he’s only going to be 26 during the 2010 season, but I’m not necessarily taking the risk. For me, the upside for Markakis appears to be what he did last season. Which is good, but not amazing. And for upside, I’d rather take some other players first.


36. Alex Rios – CHW
R HR RBI SB AVG
63 17 71 24 .247
He can’t be as bad as that batting average, right? I think he may rebound this season, but it really speaks to me that the Blue Jays were willing to give up on the talent for just salary relief. He has the potential to post a 25-25 season I think, but at this point the risk that he continues to be what he did in Chicago (.199/.229/.301) is what keeps me from drafting him like he could do that.


37. B.J. Upton – TAM
R HR RBI SB AVG
79 11 55 42 .241
The batting average is a concern, especially since his BABIP of .310 was actually fairly solid. I think he could very well hit .250 again. The steals are nice, but I’m not convinced that he could give you a 20-20 season again. I’m not really sold he will give you 40 steals again, but I think he’s got a better shot of that. Strikeouts remain a problem, as he had 152 last season against only 57 walks. If he can improve that ratio, he could see some improvement, but I’m not inclined to believe it will happen.


38. Josh Hamilton – TEX
R HR RBI SB AVG
43 10 54 8 .268
Hamilton is probably one of the higher-upside high risk players you could draft. If he’s back to 100% healthy (both mentally and physically), he could be an elite outfielder again. But this remains a player who has missed significant time in 2 of the last 3 seasons. And while I do have to remind myself that he is still developing, I’m averse to the risk in this case. I’ll let someone else take the chance on him. If he does perform to his potential, he could post an 85 run, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 15 steal season with a .280 average. But the odds of that seem really low to me.


39. Alfonso Soriano – CHC
R HR RBI SB AVG
64 20 55 9 .241
The Cubs would probably like a do-over on this contract. Soriano missed quite a bit of time last season due to injury, and will look to rebound in 2010. His batting average should improve, as he posted a BABIP about 20-25 points lower than his career norms. I think that he’s more likely to have a similar season to 2009, with probably about 80 RBI instead of 55, and a few more homeruns as well. But I think that his days as a top-10 outfielder are over, and I don’t think he steals more than 15 bases this season. At this point he’s just not quite the same player he once was.


40. Brad Hawpe – COL
R HR RBI SB AVG
82 23 86 1 .285
Hawpe is always knocked as a player who benefits from playing at Coors Field, but the dropoff between home and away does not seem that severe to me. (.297/.397/520 at home, .275/.372/.518 on the road). Something to watch about Hawpe would be whether or not the Rockies consider moving him mid-season. There was rumor that he may get moved during the offseason, but remains with the Rockies. I think they’d have to hold onto him unless they’re blown away by whatever is offered, as he remains a solid power hitter. I don’t think the upside to get to 100 runs or 100 RBI is there for Hawpe, but he’s still likely to provide solid production in 4 categories. Probably a fair 2nd outfielder or great 3rd outfielder for a fantasy team.


41. Franklin Gutierrez – SEA
R HR RBI SB AVG
85 18 70 16 .283
Gutierrez quietly had a very solid season last year. he’s not going to provide top-tier stats in any category, but he will provide you with value in all 5 categories. I think he has the potential to post a 20-20 season at some point in his career, but I’m not convinced it will be this season. But he should still give you about 15 HR and 15 steals to go with a solid batting average and run totals.


42. Denard Span – MIN
R HR RBI SB AVG
97 8 68 23 .311
Span finally got consistent playing time, and made great use of it. Span probably drops slightly in batting average this season, but we’re talking about him still being around .300, so it’s not really that much of a drop. He’s not likely to be a power hitter, probably providing no more than the 8 homeruns he had last season. But if you pair him with someone like Adam Lind or Adam Dunn, he’s going to be a great balance and give you solid production from a 3rd outfielder.


43. Juan Rivera – LAA
R HR RBI SB AVG
72 25 88 0 .287
Rivera was healthy for the most part in 2009, and his numbers really showed it. He cemented himself as a starter in the Angels’ outfield last year, and with the trade of Gary Matthews Jr., this is unlikely to change. I think he’s going to provide similar numbers again in 2010. Reasonable power, and some solid run-production. He’s what I would call a “bland” player, in that none of the stats that he provides really stand out. But you need players like this on your team just like you need the ones that provide elite values.


44. Juan Pierre – CHW
R HR RBI SB AVG
57 0 31 30 .308
Pierre has finally been freed from the bench in Los Angeles, and will be a starter in Chicago. I don’t think he’s going to give you 60-70 steals anymore, but I can see him getting into the 50’s potentially with the Sox. He could very well get back to around 85-90 runs as well. And you should know better than to expect even a single homerun. But he’s likely to give you a solid batting average to go with those other stats. I think he adjusts to the American League just fine, as he has quite a track record of performance at this point in his career.


45. Nolan Reimold – BAL
R HR RBI SB AVG
49 15 45 8 .279
As you get down into the 40s for outfielders, you’re mostly looking for upside. Or maybe that’s just me. Reimold only played a little more than half the season, and I think he could pretty easily post a 20-15 season with a full season. The upside is 85 runs, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 15 steals. Something to watch for is how the playing time sorts itself out. Reimold is probably going to lose a little playing time to Felix Pie, but could also see some time at 1B or DH as well. I can’t imagine that the Orioles think that Pie is the better long-term play, but I don’t imagine that they’ll ask me either. Not that they should.



From here, you’re really going to be looking for specific skills or stats. You’ve got lots of steals out there if you need them: Rajai Davis (41), Nyjer Morgan (42), Dexter Fowler (27). But for me, I tried to avoid players who didn’t provide at least reasonable value in 3-4 categories. There’s still some upside plays, with Vladimir Guerrero and Jay Bruce both having the potential to be special this season.

The one thing that I did notice is this: More than any other position, nearly every outfielder provides value with stolen bases. This seems unusual to me, and it’s something to keep in mind when you’re drafting. There are a lot of positions that don’t provide speed particularly well, but outfield is not one of them.

Tomorrow I will continue on with my fantasy previews, with the first half of my starting pitcher rankings.