My Final All-Star Predictions

Happy 4th of July to everyone! With the voting and teams to be announced today, I wanted to update what I thought would happen with the Major League All-Star teams prior to that:

These teams were created with the same rules that the managers in the game are required, that being 34 man rosters with 21 position players and 13 pitchers. Each team must also have a representative. The starters are based on the last voting results that were publicized.

Italicized selections are on the disabled list currently, and have been replaced with another player on the roster.

American League:

Starting Lineup
C – Joe Mauer (MIN)
1B – Justin Morneau (MIN)
2B – Robinson Cano (NYY)
3B – Evan Longoria (TAM)
SS – Derek Jeter (NYY)
OF – Carl Crawford (TAM), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Josh Hamilton (TEX)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)

Bench:

C – Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET), Paul Konerko (CHW), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
2B – Ty Wigginton (BAL)
3B – Adrian Beltre (BOS)
SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX)
OF – Alexis Rios (CHW), Vernon Wells (TOR), Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Brett Gardner (NYY)
DH – Jose Guillen (KC)

Pitching Staff:

Starters – Cliff Lee (SEA), David Price (TAM), Jered Weaver (LAA), Jon Lester (BOS), Colby Lewis (TEX), Andy Pettitte (NYY), Shaun Marcum (TOR), Trevor Cahill (OAK), Clay Buchholz (BOS)
Relievers – Mariano Rivera (NYY), Neftali Feliz (TEX), Rafael Soriano (TAM), Jose Valverde (DET), Andrew Bailey (OAK)

National League

Starting Lineup
C – Yadier Molina (STL)
1B – Albert Pujols (STL)
2B – Chase Utley (PHI)
3B – Placido Polanco (PHI)
SS – Hanley Ramirez (FLA)
OF – Andre Ethier (LAD), Jason Heyward (ATL), Ryan Braun (MIL)
DH – Joey Votto (CIN)

Bench:

C – Miguel Olivo (COL)
1B – Adrian Gonzalez (SD), Troy Glaus (ATL)
2B – Martin Prado (ATL), Brandon Phillips (CIN)
3B – David Wright (NYM), Scott Rolen (CIN), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS)
SS – Jose Reyes (NYM)
OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Jayson Werth (PHI), Justin Upton (ARI), Corey Hart (MIL), Colby Rasmus (STL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

Pitching Staff:

Starters – Roy Oswalt (HOU), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Roy Halladay (PHI), Josh Johnson (FLA), Tim Lincecum (SF), Tim Hudson (ATL), Adam Wainwright (STL), Mike Pelfrey (NYM)
Relievers – Luke Gregerson (SD), Heath Bell (SD), Matt Capps (WAS), Billy Wagner (ATL), Carlos Marmol (CHC)

Overall, I am actually a bit surprised just how difficult this process can be. There are a lot of players that are deserving of an All-Star appearance who are going to be crunched because of the requirement to have a representative from every team.  If I were to guess, I would be surprised if I got more than 60% right. I will post my review of the All-Star rosters, along with how I did with this final prediction (and the others as well) on Thursday.

The Month in Review – June 2010

As we rapidly approach the All Star break, I can honestly say that once again we’ve had quite a bit going on in the world of baseball to this point. Rookies making their debut all over the place, no-hitters everywhere (and near no-hitters), retirements, and of course the start of the trade deadline rumor mill.

All-Star Teams

Every month prior to the All-Star break, I will create my All-Star teams for each league. I plan on following the same guidelines given to the managers of the All-Star game when selecting my teams for each month. Those would be:

• 34 man rosters, 21 position players, 13 pitchers
• Each team must be represented

Now that we’ve received the final voting updates for the All-Star game, I will start the lineups with that, and build the team around that. All stats are through Tuesday’s games.

American League

American League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Joe Mauer	MIN	.302	.378	41	3	34	1
1B	Justin Morneau	MIN	.347	.445	47	15	50	0
2B	Robinson Cano	NYY	.358	.407	56	15	53	2
3B	Evan Longoria	TAM	.296	.373	46	12	53	12
SS	Derek Jeter	NYY	.286	.346	50	8	39	8
OF	Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	.335	.391	31	3	24	21
OF	Carl Crawford	TAM	.315	.379	57	7	38	27
OF	Josh Hamilton	TEX	.343	.386	52	18	58	6
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	TEX	.330	.375	49	16	63	4
American League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Mike Napoli	LAA	.262	.346	29	13	40	0
1B	Paul Konerko	CHW	.295	.389	40	12	52	1
1B	Miguel Cabrera	DET	.338	.414	57	20	67	2
1B	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	.301	.421	62	15	50	2
2B	Ty Wigginton	BAL	.262	.346	29	13	40	0
3B	Adrian Beltre	BOS	.349	.387	40	12	52	1
SS	Elvis Andrus	TEX	.296	.378	52	0	24	22
OF	Alexis Rios	CHW	.307	.365	49	13	40	21
OF	Vernon Wells	TOR	.288	.340	44	19	47	4
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	CLE	.285	.387	46	12	42	12
OF	Brett Gardner	NYY	.321	.403	49	3	23	24
DH	Jose Guillen	KC	.279	.342	41	13	47	1
American League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Cliff Lee	SEA	7	3	0	95.2	2.45	0.92	78
SP	Jered Weaver	LAA	7	3	0	101.2	3.01	1.09	118
SP	David Price	TAM	11	3	0	99.2	2.44	1.21	84
SP	Jon Lester	BOS	9	3	0	107	2.86	1.11	111
SP	Colby Lewis	TEX	7	5	0	98.2	3.28	1.07	94
SP	Andy Pettitte	NYY	9	2	0	99.1	2.72	1.16	74
SP	C.C. Sabathia	NYY	9	3	0	108.1	3.49	1.15	89
SP	Shaun Marcum	TOR	7	3	0	103.1	3.14	1.13	81
RP	Jose Valverde	DET	1	1	18	34	0.53	0.68	32
RP	Rafael Soriano	TAM	2	0	18	27.2	1.63	0.76	26
RP	Neftali Feliz	TEX	1	1	20	33.1	2.70	0.96	37
RP	Mariano Rivera	NYY	2	1	17	29.1	0.92	0.61	29
RP	Andrew Bailey	OAK	0	0	15	32	1.69	0.97	23

The National League

National League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Yadier Molina	STL	.235	.313	14	3	30	6
1B	Albert Pujols	STL	.312	.424	44	18	57	7
2B	Chase Utley	PHI	.277	.383	49	11	37	5
3B	Placido Polanco	PHI	.318	.349	39	5	27	3
SS	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	.293	.378	43	12	50	14
OF	Ryan Braun	MIL	.299	.358	48	11	49	11
OF	Andrew McCutchen*	PIT	.298	.378	48	7	24	19
OF	Andre Ethier	LAD	.312	.370	37	12	47	1
DH	Joey Votto	CIN	.313	.415	49	17	54	7
* – Injury replacement for Jason Heyward
National League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Miguel Olivo	COL	.308	.368	34	11	38	4
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	.302	.395	42	16	51	0
1B	Troy Glaus	ATL	.264	.368	41	14	56	0
1B	Adam Dunn	WAS	.271	.361	43	17	47	0
2B	Martin Prado	ATL	.334	.376	55	7	33	3
3B	David Wright	NYM	.310	.392	43	14	61	13
3B	Scott Rolen	CIN	.301	.368	41	17	53	0
SS	Juan Uribe	SF	.270	.340	37	12	45	1
OF	Justin Upton	ARI	.268	.351	47	14	39	11
OF	Colby Rasmus	STL	.275	.370	46	16	40	8
OF	Corey Hart	MIL	.278	.345	39	18	60	4
OF	Carlos Gonzalez*	COL	.302	.330	47	12	46	11
*roster replacement for Jason Heyward
National League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	14	1	0	113	1.83	1.05	102
SP	Josh Johnson	FLA	8	3	0	108	1.83	0.96	107
SP	Roy Halladay	PHI	9	6	0	108	2.29	1.07	102
SP	Tim Lincecum	SF	8	3	0	103.2	3.12	1.25	117
SP	Mike Pelfrey	NYM	10	2	1	99.2	2.72	1.07	70
SP	Tim Hudson	ATL	8	3	0	106.1	2.37	1.17	51
SP	Jaime Garcia	STL	7	4	0	87.1	2.27	1.26	70
SP	Adam Wainwright	STL	11	5	0	119.1	2.34	1.03	114
RP	Matt Lindstrom	HOU	2	1	18	31.1	3.16	1.6	7.18
RP	Matt Capps	WAS	0	3	22	33.2	3.48	1.46	30
RP	Heath Bell	SD	3	0	21	32.2	1.93	1.41	43
RP	Billy Wagner	ATL	5	0	15	30.1	1.19	0.96	46
RP	Carlos Marmol	CHC	2	1	14	35.2	2.27	1.21	66

I took Jason Heyward out of the starting lineup since he has already stated that if he is selected, he won’t play due to his thumb injury. I picked McCutchen to replace him in the lineup as both Braun and Ethier are corner outfielders, and McCutchen plays CF. Other players who are likely to be replaced, but have not been as of yet: Chase Utley (who I would replace with Casey McGehee of the Brewers), and Placido Polanco (who I would replace with Ryan Zimmerman). Looking at the All-Star starters, the only one who really hasn’t done a whole lot offensively to deserve it at this point, to me anyway, is Yadier Molina. But it’s hard to argue with a catcher who has a pitching staff with 2 All-Star starting pitchers and a 3rd who is also deserving (Chris Carpenter).

My Award Winners to Date

AL MVP –  Miguel Cabrera (DET)
NL MVP – Albert Pujols (STL)
AL Cy Young – Cliff Lee (SEA)
NL Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
AL Rookie of the Year – Brennan Boesch (DET)
NL Rookie of the Year – Stephen Strasburg (WAS)

Weekly Links and Weeks in Review

May 31-June 6
June 7-June 13
June 14-June 20
June 21-June 27

June was an extremely busy month for stories, with so many that I had honestly forgotten a few of them before I reviewed my week-in-review posts.

• On June 2nd, Ken Griffey Jr. announced his retirement abruptly, about an hour before that evening’s game. I wrote up my thoughts about him here, and also wrote up my thoughts on him as a fantasy player over at FakeTeams.
• Unfortunately, the retirement of Griffey was overshadowed by the near-perfect game that was thrown on the same night by Tigers’ pitcher Armando Galarraga. By now, it seems to have blown over, as it is not really mentioned nearly as much as it was when it happened. I wrote up my thoughts on it at the time, and I think that they are still pretty apt a month later.
• It was a bit of an up-and-down month for Carlos Zambrano, as he was brought back into the rotation early on in the month, only to have blown his top in the dugout of his last start on the 25th. He is currently on the restricted list and is seeking treatment in New York. What that treatment is exactly for is anyone’s guess, but I would have to imagine it has something to do with his temper. Hopefully he’ll be able to return after the All-Star break to the form that had made him an All-Star previously.
• Yet another no-hitter was thrown in the month of June, with Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks throwing one on June 25th. The story with the no-hitter seemed to be 2 fold: One, that manager A.J. Hinch had left Jackson in the game to throw a total of 149 pitches to get through the start, and two, that Jackson had allowed 10 different baserunners without allowing a hit. Either way, it was probably one of the more improbable no-hitters that we have seen in awhile.
• June clearly was the month of rookie debuts. Some of the rookies making their season (or career) debuts in June: Pedro Alvarez, Brad Lincoln, and Jose Tabata of the Pirates, Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox, Madison Bumgarner of the Giants, Andrew Oliver of the Tigers, and Felix Doubront of the Red Sox. But there were 3 names that were covered more than any other, and with good reason: Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Santana of the Indians, and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals. Stanton has been a bit of a mixed bag to this point, hitting .217/.276/.348 with 2 homeruns and 3 stolen bases so far. In any other season, Santana would be the rookie debut most discussed, as he has caught fire and is hitting everything that moves in the American League. To date, Santana is hitting .333/.456/.704 with 8 doubles, 4 homeruns, and 14 runs batted in through 17 games.
• Clearly though, the story on everyone’s mind all month long has been the debut and subsequent starts of Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg electrified Nationals fans, and the league as a whole after striking out 14 in 7 innings in his debut against the Pirates on June 8th. He’s done nothing but pitch well ever since, and despite a 2-2 record, he now has a 2.27 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts to 7 walks in only 31 2/2 innings pitched. That’s a K/9 rate of 13.6, the highest of any starter so far this season. Having watched the highlights of all his starts, and parts of others as they happened, the kid is legit. With the injury of Jason Heyward toward the end of the month, the NL Rookie of the Year race is wide open and I think Strasburg could very well take it.
• The hot stove league has heated up slowly so far, with minor trades of Dontrelle Willis and Conor Jackson being the only players of note. But with Cliff Lee likely to be traded, and rumblings of Roy Oswalt being available, it is only a matter of time before there are many more deals to discuss. I plan to do reviews like I did during the offseason of some of the major ones when they happen.
• The MLB draft was also on June 8th, and the only real surprise of the first round was the fact that Nationals’ top pick Bryce Harper was announced as an outfielder, not a catcher. Clearly, this will make his path to the Majors that much faster, as his bat could be pretty close to Major league ready as it stands now.

What’s Coming in July

I am actually pretty well planned out for the month of July for posts. I went through teams #30 to #15 in my Original Draft Series, where I look at each organization and build a roster based on each player’s original professional franchise. In July, I will continue on with the series, posting about teams #14 through 11 later on in the month. In addition, I will be reviewing the rosters of the All-Star teams after they are announced on Sunday, and critiquing my own choices versus the managers. Also, I will look back on how the prospects I reviewed in the offseason have progressed so far, and how they are stacking up to my own predictions (wild as they may have been).

I will also be starting up the book reviews I had previously mentioned that I had hoped to do. The first book on the list is Fantasyland by Sam Walker. I also picked up a pair of older copies of Baseball America’s Almanac (the 2003 and 2008 editions) at a used book sale last week, and have been looking through some of the information for some post ideas, and found some pretty good ones so far.

Thanks again to all the readers, and if you’re enjoying the writing, please feel free to either write a comment on the posts, and take a few seconds to become a fan of Jason’s Baseball Blog on Facebook. You can do that here.

Week in Review – May 24th to May 30th

If the Playoffs Started Today

New York (30-20) vs. Minnesota (30-20)
Oakland (27-24) vs. Tampa Bay (34-17)

St. Louis (29-22) vs. San Diego (29-20)
Philadelphia (28-21) vs. Cincinnati (30-21)

League Leaders

Average: Justin Morneau (MIN) – .368
Home Runs: Jose Bautista (TOR) – 16
Runs Batted In: Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 48
Runs: Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – 45
Stolen Bases: Rajai Davis (OAK) – 20

Wins: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 9
ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 0.88
Saves: Matt Capps (WAS) – 17
Strikeouts: Tim Lincecum (SF) – 80

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Koji Uehara, Alfredo Simon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Everth Cabrera, Kendry Morales, George Sherrill, Coco Crisp

Returning from the Disabled List: Mike Cameron, Rafael Furcal, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Guillen, Brett Anderson

Called up from the Minors: Chris Iannetta, Buster Posey, Chris Tillman, Max Scherzer

Removed from the Majors: Dontrelle Willis,

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• MLB.com has been going back over previous years amateur drafts as a run up to this year’s draft next week. This week they went over the 2005 draft, and was an interesting read.
• The first set of All-Star voting was announced this week, and you can read what my take on the topic was here.
• Stephen Strasburg allowed his first run at AAA this week, and it sounds like he’s going to be up in the Majors by the 10th or 11th of June at the latest. After seeing some of the footage of him pitching, it seems like he’s pretty likely to be a solid if not dominant starter once he gets to the Majors.
• The headline said the most: Ray on Ray crime as infielder Sean Rodriguez was stung by a sting ray while at the beach last week. He’s fine, and back in the lineup already, but I still thought it was pretty funny.
• Joe West and the Chicago White Sox were both at the center of a bit of controversy earlier this week, as West ejected both P Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen for arguing after West called a pair of balks on the pitcher in the 3rd inning of Thursday’s game. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has a really good writeup of the history of West and his desire to be in the spotlight. I am inclined to agree that umpires fit in that old adage about children that they be seen and not heard. Clearly, the fact that an umpire was the biggest story in a baseball game is a problem. Sounds like all 3 of them were fined for their actions that day.
• Bill Dwyre of the LA Times has a good writeup which explains how options work for players.
• For the second time in less than a month, a perfect game was thrown in the Majors. The 20th in the history of baseball, and the first time it has happened twice in a season since 1880 was twirled by Roy Halladay. Congrats to him, and he has to be one of the best pitchers I can remember actually throwing one.
• I would assume that a lot of teams are going to start looking at walk-off celebrations after Kendry Morales broke his leg on Saturday during theirs. The Angels are likely to be without Morales anywhere up to 3 months it appears. It appears that it was a bit of a fluky injury, but the Angels are still going to be without one of their best hitters for a majority of the remainder of the season.
• The Giants finally gave into the demands of the fans, and called up top prospect Buster Posey. He responded by going 3-4 with 3 RBI in his first game on Saturday, while playing 1B. Buster Olney wrote up in his blog (subscription required) that the Giants don’t really appear to be making decisions in a thought out process with regard to Posey. I’m inclined to agree, as they sent him down specifically to improve his catching.
• Scary moment for the Indians’ David Huff, as he took a line drive off his forehead off the bat of Alex Rodriguez. It sounds like he’s doing alright, but the fact that the ball bounced off his head and ended up about 40-50 feet into right field is extremely scary.
• To make room for Sunday’s starting pitcher Max Scherzer, the Tigers designated for assignment P Dontrelle Willis. Essentially a roster move to get him off the 40 man roster, if no one claims him and his $12 million dollar salary (which seems likely), they could potentially send him to the minors or give him his release. I think I’m with the majority here in wondering what happened to him, and hope he can figure it out.
• Clearly, Max Scherzer must have figured something out at AAA, as he shut down the A’s and struck out 14 of them in only 5 2/3 innings Sunday in the victory. A bit disconcerting to have done so with 113 pitches, but between 4 walks and the 14 strikeouts, clearly there were going to be a lot of pitches thrown.

The Posts Planned for the Rest of this Week:
Tuesday: Month in Review: May
Wednesday: The 2010 Rookie Class
Thursday: Draft Preview Links
Friday: Trade Retro: Jermaine Dye to the Athletics (2001)

The Month in Review: April 2010

Well, we are a little over 1/6th of the way through the season, and we’ve seen quite a bit already. At the end of each month, I will go over  some of the larger stories, name my season-to-this-point All-Star teams, and my season-to-point award winners.

All-Star Teams

I plan on following the same guidelines given to the managers of the All-Star game when selecting my teams for each month. Those would be:

• 34 man rosters, 21 position players, 13 pitchers
• Each team must be represented

Beyond that, I plan on not necessarily using any voting that may or may not have occurred yet, because to me, the voting is always biased toward the larger market teams.

American League

Starters
C – Joe Mauer (MIN): .345/.406/.500, 1 HR, 13 RBI
1B – Paul Konerko (CHW): .297/.413/.784, 11 HR, 21 RBI
2B – Robinson Cano (NYY): .400/.436/.765, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB
3B – Evan Longoria (TAM): .341/.400/.602, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB
SS – Derek Jeter (NYY): .330/.354/521, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 3 SB
OF – Vernon Wells (TOR): .337/.396/.717, 8 HR, 16 RBI, SB
OF – Carl Crawford (TAM): .337/.390/.551, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 7 SB
OF – Nelson Cruz (TEX): .323/.419/.758, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 5 SB
DH – Jose Guillen (KC): .304/.337/.609, 7 HR, 19 RBI, SB

Reserves

C – Jorge Posada (NYY): .310/.394/.638, 5 HR, 12 RBI
1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET): .344/.427/.615, 5 HR, 25 RBI
1B – Justin Morneau (MIN): .347/.490/.640, 5 HR, 17 RBI
1B – Kendry Morales (LAA): .295/.347/.523, 6 HR, 16 RBI
2B – Dustin Pedroia (BOS): .302/.343/.573, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 2 SB
IF – Ty Wigginton (BAL): .308/.395/.631, 6 HR, 12 RBI
SS – Alex Gonzalez (TOR): .289/.317/.629, 7 HR, 19 RBI
OF – Shin-Soo Choo (CLE): .317/.429/.500, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 4 SB
OF – Brett Gardner (NYY): .323/.397/.385, 6 RBI, 10 SB
OF – Austin Jackson (DET): .364/.422/.495, HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB
OF – Scott Podsednik (KC): .350/.418/.375, 8 RBI, 8 SB
OF – Andruw Jones (CHW): .259/.394/.630, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB

Pitchers

Matt Garza (TAM): 4-1, 2.06 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 34 strikeouts, 35 IP
Francisco Liriano (MIN): 3-0, 0.93 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 27 strikeouts, 29 IP
Jered Weaver (LAA): 3-0, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 34 K, 32 IP
Colby Lewis (TEX): 3-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 38 K, 32 2/3 IP
Zack Greinke (KC): 0-2, 2.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 K, 31 2/3 IP
John Danks (CHW): 3-0, 1.55 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 26 K, 29 IP
Ricky Romero (TOR): 2-1, 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 31 K, 36 IP
Felix Hernandez (SEA): 2-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 31 K, 36 1/3 IP
Justin Duchscherer (OAK): 2-1, 2.89 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 18 K, 28 IP
David Aardsma (SEA): 0-1, 8 SV, 2.79 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 11 K, 9 2/3 IP
Jose Valverde (DET): 0-1, 7 SV, 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 6 K, 12 IP
Mariano Rivera (NYY): 0-0, 7 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 9 K, 9 IP
Jon Rauch (MIN): 1-0, 7 SV, 1.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7 K, 10 IP

National League

Starters

C – Geovany Soto (CHC): .340/.500/.528, 3 HR, 7 RBI
1B – Albert Pujols (STL): .345/.430/.655, 7 HR, 19 RBI, SB
2B – Kelly Johnson (ARI): .313/.404/.750, 9 HR, 18 RBI
3B – Pablo Sandoval (SF): .368/.433/.575, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB
SS – Rafael Furcal (LAD): .309/.378/.420, 6 RBI, 8 SB
OF – Ryan Braun (MIL): .355/.430/581, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB
OF – Colby Rasmus (STL): .323/.463/.708, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 3 SB
OF – Andre Ethier (LAD): .329/.407/592, 6 HR, 19 RBI
DH – Kosuke Fukudome (CHC): .344/.443/.641, 5 HR, 16 RBI, SB

Reserves

C – Miguel Olivo (COL): .291/.333/.600, 5 HR, 13 RBI, SB
1B – Adrian Gonzalez (SD): .288/.408/.563, 6 HR, 16 RBI
2B – Chase Utley (PHI): .275/.431/.550, 6 HR, 15 RBI, SB
2B – Dan Uggla (FLA): .295/.364/.534, 5 HR, 14 RBI, SB
3B – David Wright (NYM): .273/.430/.506, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 7 SB
3B – Jorge Cantu (FLA): .311/.354/567, 5 HR, 23 RBI
SS – Ryan Theriot (CHC): .337/.370/.386, 12 RBI, 5 SB
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (COL): .304/.350/.435, 1 HR, 13 RBI, SB
OF – Matt Kemp (LAD): .278/.333/.546, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 3 SB
OF – Marlon Byrd (CHC): .348/.366/.584, 4 HR, 16 RBI, SB
OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT): .299/.352/.443, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 10 SB
OF – Jayson Werth (PHI): .325/.402/.584, 3 HR, 14 RBI, SB

Pitchers

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL): 5-0, 0.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 31 K, 34 IP
Tim Lincecum (SF): 4-0, 1.27 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 43 K, 35 1/3 IP
Roy Halladay (PHI): 4-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 33 K, 40 IP
Mike Pelfrey (NYM): 4-0, 0.69 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 19 K, 26 IP
Barry Zito (SF): 4-0, 1.53 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 24 K, 35 1/3 IP
Josh Johnson (FLA): 2-1, 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 34 K, 31 IP
Tommy Hanson (ATL): 2-2, 2.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 33 K, 29 IP
Jamie Garcia (STL): 2-1, 1.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 17 K, 26 IP
Adam Wainwright (STL): 4-1, 2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 30 K, 38 IP
Heath Bell (SD): 1-0, 7 SV, 1.80 WHIP, 1.40 WHIP, 16 K, 10 IP
Matt Lindstrom (HOU): 0-0, 6 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11 K, 10 IP
Francisco Cordero (CIN): 1-1, 9 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13 K, 13 1/3 IP
Matt Capps (WAS): 0-0, 10 SV, 0.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 15 K, 13 1/3 IP

Overall, both of these teams ended up being a pretty fair representation I think. For most of the teams, there was at least one clear All-Star. Only with the Athletics and Astros did I really struggle particularly. It is interesting to see just how many excellent performances there were in April.

My Award Winners to Date

AL MVP – Evan Longoria (TAM)
NL MVP – Albert Pujols (STL)
AL Cy Young – Francisco Liriano (MIN)
NL Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
AL Rookie of the Year – Austin Jackson (DET)
NL Rookie of the Year – Jason Heyward (ATL)

Weekly Links and Weeks in Review

April 4-11
April 12-18
April 19-25
April 26-May 2

To me, the stories that really dominated baseball were the emergence of the new rookie class (Austin Jackson, Jason Heyward, Mike Leake), Big Carlos Zambrano being sent to the bullpen, and the struggles of the Red Sox early on. Feel free to look through the weekly links to see some of the other top stories last month. We also saw the hot start of the Rays, and a no-hitter from Ubaldo Jimenez. Nothing quite like baseball.

The Week in Review: April 4-April 11

Well, we are one week down in the Major League season, and already we’ve seen quite a bit of things happen of importance.

If the Playoffs Started Today (which clearly they don’t)

Minnesota (WC) at Toronto (E)
Oakland at Detroit (C)

Arizona (WC) at Philadelphia (E)
St. Louis (C) at San Francisco

Last Week’s Top Performers

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – .522/.621/.783, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R
Nelson Cruz (TEX) – .450/.520/1.150, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 R
Paul Konerko (CHW) – .316/.440/.789, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 4 R
Vernon Wells (TOR) – .350/.500/.950, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R
Rajai Davis (OAK) – .313/.333/.438, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 7 R, 4 SB

Roy Halladay (PHI) – 2 W, 16 IP, 0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 17 K, 2 BB
Mark Buehrle (CHW) – 2 W, 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 4 K, 3 BB
Tim Lincecum (SF) – 2 W, 14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 17 K, 1 BB
Jon Rauch (MIN) – 4/4 saves, 4 K, 4 IP

Roster Movement and Job Changes

• Frank Francisco has already been removed as the closer for the Rangers, and replaced with Neftali Feliz.
• Mike Gonzalez has been removed as the closer for the Orioles, but is likely to get his job back later this week. Jim Johnson appears to be the favorite to receive any save chances that may occur until then.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia was placed on the disabled list, and was replaced in the lineup by Taylor Teagarden.
• Miguel Montero was also placed on the disabled list with a torn meniscus, and could be out for a large portion of the season. Chris Snyder was called on to replace him in the lineup.

Top Rookie Performances

• Jason Heyward made his presence known on Opening Day, homering on the first swing of his career off of Cubs’ pitcher Carlos Zambrano. His line for the week: .292/.370/.708, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R
• Mike Leake made his professional debut on Sunday, throwing 6 2/3 IP and allowing only 1 ER.

Overall, it was an interesting week of baseball, and clearly big things are coming from rookie Jason Heyward. I would be shocked if he doesn’t end up winning the Rookie of the Year award. Stephen Strasburg and Aroldis Chapman also both made their professional debuts on Sunday (Strasburg in AA, Chapman in AAA), and both pitched very well.

The one thing I am really looking forward to seeing today is the first game at the new Target Field. The place looks like it’s a really beautiful ball park, and it sounds like the weather is going to cooperate for the home opener.

Team Preview – Philadelphia Phillies

Roster Makeup
Lineup		Pitching Staff
Pos	Name	Role	Name
C	Carlos Ruiz	SP 1	Roy Halladay
1B	Ryan Howard	SP 2	Cole Hamels
2B	Chase Utley	SP 3	Joe Blanton
3B	Placido Polanco	SP 4	J.A. Happ
SS	Jimmy Rollins	SP 5	Jamie Moyer
LF	Raul Ibanez	Bullpen
CF	Shane Victorino	CL	Brad Lidge
RF	Jayson Werth	RP	Ryan Madson
Bench		RP	J.C. Romero
OF	Greg Dobbs	RP	Danys Baez
C	Brian Schneider	RP	Chad Durbin

Additional roster information can be found at MLB Depth Charts.

Off-Season Transactions
Key Additions			Key Losses
Pos	Name	How	Pos	Name	How
SP	Roy Halladay	Trade (TOR)	SP	Cliff Lee	Trade (SEA)
3B	Placido Polanco	Free Agency	3B	Pedro Feliz	Free Agency
RP	Danys Baez	Free Agency	SP	Brett Myers	Free Agency

Top Prospects: Domonic Brown (OF), Philippe Aumont (P), Juan Ramirez (P), Tyson Gillies (OF)

2009 Review

The Phillies finished 2008 as the World Champions, and were looking to repeat coming into 2009. They did well for the most part early on, and made a huge splash at the trade deadline. After failing to acquire Roy Halladay, they turned their interest to reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, acquiring him for a large package of prospects instead. They won the division pretty easily, and cruised through both the Rockies (3-1), and the Dodgers (4-1) to advance to the World Series. Lee pitched extremely well during the playoffs, although he wasn’t able to carry them past the Yankees, as they lost 4-2 in the Series.

The Phillies were led on offense by 2B Chase Utley (.282, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB), 1B Ryan Howard (.279, 45 HR, 141 RBI), and OF Jayson Werth (36 HR, 99 RBI, 20 SB). Considering they also had solid performances from OFs Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez, this was a team that scored a lot of runs. On the pitching side, mid-season acquisition Cliff Lee pitched well (7-4, 3.39), and rookie J.A. Happ was a very solid performer as well (12-4, 2.93 ERA). The bullpen was in flux for most of the season, as closer Brad Lidge was unable to perform even a little bit consistently (0-8, 7.21 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 7 BSV), and had to rely sometimes on Ryan Madson to help with the duties.

Team Outlook for 2010

The Phillies made the biggest trade of the offseason, finally acquiring SP Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays, and in the same trade moving Cliff Lee to the Mariners for prospects. I’m not sure that Halladay is that much of an upgrade over Lee, at least not to warrant the cost of the prospects that they moved to the Blue Jays. But signing him to a 3 year extension should help with that as well. The offense remains extremely stacked, and I actually think it could be better with Polanco in the 2 spot of the lineup (if that’s where he ends up). He’s still probably a better overall hitter than Feliz was. The rotation will look for a bounceback effort from Cole Hamels, and should be happy with having J.A. Happ in the rotation for the full season this year. Overall, they are a team that almost has a feel of an American League team with the amount of offense and pitching they have.

Fantasy Outlook for 2010

Lots to like on the Phillies. 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard lead the way, but SS Jimmy Rollins, OF Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, and Raul Ibanez are all fanatasy gold as well. From the pitching side, SP Roy Halladay is probably going to finish the season as a top-3 starter at worst, and Cole Hamels should return to form as well. Someone to keep an eye on for deeper leagues is Joe Blanton, who doesn’t necessarily have a lot of upside anymore, but should provide solid numbers and ratios.

Prediction for 2010

The Phillies are the class of the NL East yet again, and it would take a lot in my opinion for them to be unseated as the champs of the division. Look for them to use what few prospects they have left at this point if they need a specific piece down the stretch, but I think they’re going to coast to the division title.

96-66, 1st in the NL East

Fantasy Preview – Starting Pitchers Part 1

A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 25 Starting Pitchers

1. Tim Lincecum – SF
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
15	2.48	225.1	261	1.047
Lincecum is coming off back-to-back Cy Young Awards, and is still extremely young. The unorthodox delivery will always be of some concern, but he has had success with it to this point, and in staying healthy while using it. He really should have won more than 15 games last season, but you’re not really looking for wins specifically at this point. To me, Lincecum is far and away the best starting pitcher at the start of the season, and could very well end up with a repeat of his 2009 season again in 2010.

2. Roy Halladay – PHI
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
17	2.79	239	208	1.126
After all the speculation that Halladay would be moved during the 2009 season, it was a small surprise to see him actually moved during the offseason. But I really like what this does for his value for 2010. His lineup is going to provide him with a ton of runs, and Halladay also gets the bonus of getting to face the Nationals and the rest of the National League as opposed to having to face the juggernauts in New York and Boston a half-dozen times. I think he could actually improve on these numbers, and I think he’s going to give Lincecum a run for the money for the Cy Young Award this season.

3. Felix Hernandez – SEA
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
19	2.49	238.2	217	1.135
Hernandez really put it all together last season, finishing 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting to Greinke. The Mariners have made a concerted effort to improve the defense behind their pitching staff for 2010, adding Casey Kotchman at 1B and Chone Figgins at 3B. I think that Hernandez can actually see slight improvements in his numbers this season. My only concern for King Felix would be that he may not necessarily get as many wins, but you really shouldn’t be chasing wins to begin with.

4. C.C. Sabathia – NYY
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
19	3.37	230	197	1.148
Sabathia is simply a true pitcher. He’s going to be out there for as long as they will allow him, throwing as many pitches as he needs to get through a start. I actually think that the win total could also have the potential to be even higher this season, and the strikeouts higher as well. He’s always going to have a pretty good amount of run support, and his ERA and WHIP should stay in a similar range to last year.

5. Zack Greinke – KC
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
16	2.16	229.1	242	1.073
Greinke won the AL Cy Young Award last season, edging out Hernandez and Sabathia both. I think he’s going to see a slight regression, as the ERA and WHIP were amazingly low. But we’re still talking about a pitcher who will end up with a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP around 1.15 or less. Oh, and the strikeout per inning is always a good thing too. Greinke really appears to have conquered his demons regarding the spotlight, and seems like a pretty safe bet to have another great season.

6. Dan Haren – ARI
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
14	3.14	229.1	223	1.003
Haren really seems to be a tale of two pitchers: He always has a very good first half, and a not-as-great second half. Just keep that thought in the back of your mind when drafting him. The fact that despite poorer performance in the second half, these were the numbers he posted, tells you how good the numbers were in the first half. Haren is also about as steady as it comes also, having posted excellent performances overall for each of the last 4 seasons.

7. Adam Wainwright – STL
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
19	2.63	233	212	1.210
Wainwright posted an excellent season last year, narrowly losing out on the NL Cy Young award last season. His peripheral numbers (.309 BABIP, 0.66 HR/9) indicate to me that there’s a very good chance he’ll repeat these numbers again in 2010.

8. Justin Verlander – DET
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
19	3.45	240	269	1.175
Verlander definitely announced his presence again in 2009, and my only question about him is this: Will he be able to repeat what he did in 2009, or will he regress back to the 2008 version? I think he’s a lot more likely to stay at the 2009 level, and could end up as a top-5 pitcher potentially.

9. Jon Lester – BOS
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
15	3.41	203.1	225	1.230
Lester’s personal story is a very good one, but the fantasy implications of his 2009 season are much more interesting for my purposes. I think that there is a reasonable chance he will actually improve on his numbers, both the ERA and WHIP. The Red Sox have done a very good job of improving their defense, and have managed to keep their offense in solid shape as well. Even his health concerns from the beginning of the 2009 season have been put to rest, and he should help lead the Red Sox for many years to come.

10. Chris Carpenter – STL
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
17	2.24	192.2	144	1.007
The only concern I have with Carpenter is the same one that he has nearly every season: health. Carpenter only pitched 192 innings last season, and I think it is unlikely he will get much past 200 IP this season as well. The strikeout rate seems to have dropped some, but his ERA and WHIP have been low enough that the fact that he’s “only” struck out around 7 per 9 innings is not really that relevant to me. But do remember that Carpenter is not without risk.

11. Josh Johnson – FLA
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
15	3.23	209	191	1.158
With a freshly signed contract extension, Johnson knows he’s going to be pitching in Florida’s spacious stadium until they move to the new one. 2009 was the first season really able to stay healthy for the full season. The value is definitely there with Johnson, as even when he was not healthy, his numbers were in line with what he accomplished last season. But he’s another pitcher that I would say has a slightly more than average risk for injury.

12. Matt Cain – SF
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
14	2.89	217.2	171	1.181
Cain, very quietly, had a very good season last year. And even though he didn’t show it in the win totals for a second straight season, his components indicate that he’s definitely for real. He may see some regression with regard to his ERA, but he should still be around 3.50 or so.

13. Johan Santana – NYM
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
13	3.13	166.2	146	1.212
Santana was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise very poor Mets team in 2009. I think that there is a very distinct possibility that Santana pitches a full season this year, and vaults back into the top-10 of starting pitchers. The only number I don’t think improves is his win total, but that is more to do with what I think of the Mets than anything.

14. Javier Vazquez – NYY
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
15	2.87	219.1	238	1.026
So Vazquez is back in New York, and I think that this is going to adversely affect the numbers he will provide for fantasy owners. He’s still likely to strikeout around a batter per inning, but it concerns me that he’s not going to be able to face the Nats and the other National League lineups. I think he still posts an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.2, which will both be excellent. But don’t let yourself get caught bidding on Vazquez on the assumption that he’s going to duplicated 2009, because I just don’t see that happening.

15. Josh Beckett – BOS
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
17	3.86	212.1	199	1.192
Beckett seems poised to repeat the success he had in 2009, and should provide you with some solid value in all categories. I don’t think there is a lot of upside from the numbers he posted last year though, and even a chance of some regression in WHIP as well.

16. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
14	3.02	205.2	193	1.240
The numbers appear to be, for the most part, real. The ERA could possibly go up from last year, but the WHIP and strikeouts appear legit. The other thing that I was thinking with Wandy was the fact that it seems unlikely he will win more than the 14 games he did last season. The Astros don’t look particularly good, and that will affect his final numbers slightly.

17. Ubaldo Jimenez – COL
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
15	3.47	218	198	1.229
Jimenez’s 2009 season was an improvement on 2008, mostly due to him cutting down his walk rate from 4.67 per 9 to 3.51 per 9 innings in 2009. If he can continue that lower walk rate, I don’t see any reason why he can’t perform to the same level in 2010.

18. Cliff Lee – SEA
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
14	3.22	231.2	181	1.243
Lee has had a whirlwind couple of seasons, having now been traded twice in the span of 5 months. His numbers could see some improvement by moving from Philadelphia to Seattle (mostly due to improved defense and ballpark), but the fact that he will be facing AL lineups again drops him from being a top-10 pitcher in my opinion. He’s still going to be an excellent pitcher, and he’s still going to provide solid numbers across the board. But I think I would rather have some other pitchers first.

19. Jake Peavy – CHW
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
9	3.45	101.2	110	1.121
Peavy came back late in the season from his injuries and pitched extremely well. He is another pitcher who could very well end up as a top-10 pitcher if he pitches a full season in 2010. But the fact that it took a majority of 2009 to recover from these injuries concerns me, as well as his adaption to pitching outside of Petco. I believe that he’s going to be solid as long as he’s healthy, and potentially elite also. He is not a product of Petco Park, but the place certainly didn’t hurt him as a pitcher.

20. Clayton Kershaw – LAD
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
8	2.79	171	185	1.228
Kershaw put it all together last season, and still has a lot of room for growth. He’s only going to be 22 years old this season, and should hopefully see him top 200 innings this year. The win total should improve as well, as he pitched a lot better than only getting 8 wins. My only real concern with Kershaw is how he will adjust to trying to throw that many innings. The potential dropoff is still well worth the risk in my opinion, as the upside for Kershaw remains huge.

21. Yovani Gallardo – MIL
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
13	3.73	185.2	204	1.314
Gallardo pitched the majority of the season last year for the first time, and posted some excellent numbers as a result. I think that he can approach 200 innings this season, but could potentially see a slight regression in ERA and WHIP due to a slightly lower BABIP (.288). The strikeouts are legit, and I could see the wins potentially improving as well. Gallardo is the unquestioned ace of the Brewers staff at this point.

22. Ricky Nolasco – FLA
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
13	5.06	185	195	1.254
Nolasco’s ERA really appears to be an outlier. Both his BABIP (.336) and FIP (3.35) indicate that the ERA was extremely unlucky. You’re looking at a pitcher who will approach 200 innings, and post excellent numbers in strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA this time around.

23. Matt Garza – TAM
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
8	3.95	203	189	1.261
Garza appears extremely unlucky in terms of wins. He did post a career high in strikeouts, which was more in-line with his minor league stats. His ERA may be a bit higher this year, but I think he still is right around 4.00.

24. Tommy Hanson – ATL
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
11	2.89	127.2	116	1.185
The only thing that is keeping me from ranking Hanson higher is the fact that he has not yet done it over a full season. But he’s going to be really good, and will probably post an ERA closer to 3.75 than the 2.89 he posted last season. A lot of upside here though to be sure.

25. Brandon Webb – ARI
W	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
0	13.5	4	2	2.00
Talk about a lost season. Webb pitched 4 innings in his first start, and never made it back to the team during the season. But the upside of Webb is a definite top 10 pitcher who could post 200 IP with a sub 3.50 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts. The risk of injury is the only thing keeping him from being higher up.

Tomorrow I will continue on with my team previews, as I review the American League West this week, starting with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Team Preview – Toronto Blue Jays

Roster Makeup
Lineup		Pitching Staff
Pos	Name	Role	Name
C	John Buck	SP 1	Ricky Romero
1B	Lyle Overbay	SP 2	Brett Cecil
2B	Aaron Hill	SP 3	Marc Rzepcynski
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	SP 4	Shaun Marcum
SS	Alex Gonzalez	SP 5	Brandon Morrow
LF	Travis Snider	Bullpen
CF	Vernon Wells	CL	Jason Frasor
RF	Adam Lind	RP	Jeremy Accardo
DH	Randy Ruiz	RP	Jesse Carlson
Bench		RP	Kevin Gregg
OF	Jeremy Reed	RP	Brian Tallet
OF	Jose Bautista	RP	David Purcey

Additional roster information can be found at MLB Depth Charts.

Off-Season Transactions
Key Additions			Key Losses
Pos	Name	How	Pos	Name	How
SP	Brandon Morrow	Trade (SEA)	SP	Roy Halladay	Trade (PHI)
C	John Buck	Free Agency	RP	Brandon League	Trade (SEA)
RP	Kevin Gregg	Free Agency	SS	Marco Scutaro	Free Agency

Top Prospects: Brett Wallace (3B), Kyle Drabek (P), Zack Stewart (P)

2009 Review

The Blue Jays always seem to be not quite close enough to competing. They finished 2009 with a 75-87 campaign, which led to the firing of general manager J.P. Ricciardi after 8 seasons. Ricciardi and the Blue Jays spent most of the season listening to trade rumors surrounding SP Roy Halladay, which appeared to be a distraction overall. But the team definitely had some bright spots. 2B Aaron Hill lead the team with 36 HR, as he was healthy for the full season for the first time in a while. RF Adam Lind finally developed into a good middle-of-the-order hitter, powering 35 HR and a team-leading 114 RBI to go with a .305 batting average. SP Roy Halladay went 17-10 with a 2.79 era, leading a very young, but potentially very good pitching staff.

Injuries played a major part in the Blue Jays season, with 2 starting pitchers missing the entire season (Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan). However, rookies Brett Cecil, Marc Rzepcynski, and Ricky Romero all came up and stepped right into the rotation. Perhaps the most unusual moment came in August when RF Alex Rios, placed on waivers like nearly everyone else on the roster (as is standard at the time of year), was claimed by the White Sox. The Blue Jays took that opportunity to rid themselves of a rather large contract, and got just the relief from Rios’ salary in return.

Team Outlook for 2010

The Blue Jays are always going to be a second-tier team in comparison to the Yankees and Red Sox, but they have done well to position themselves in terms of the future. The Halladay trade netted them an excellent pitching prospect in Kyle Drabek, a high-level 3B prospect in Brett Wallace, a solid catching prospect in Travis d’Arnaud, and also acquired another good young arm in Brandon Morrow in a separate trade. This is in addition to the already good young arms of Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, and Dustin McGowan. While the team no longer has a bona fide #1 starter in Halladay, they did well to get as good of a return as they did considering he was only under contract for 1 season and had a full no-trade clause.

The Blue Jays should be helped with full seasons from OF Travis Snider, 3B Edwin Encarnacion, and SP Brett Cecil. However, they did lose a large amount of offense from SS Marco Scutaro and C Rod Barajas that wasn’t particularly replaced in the lineup. I think this is a team that will continue to develop this season, and unfortunately will not really be in the AL East race for very long. They simply don’t have enough offense from this lineup to compete with the top hitting teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers), and don’t have enough top-tier pitching to compete with the top pitching teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Tigers).

Fantasy Outlook for 2010

2B Aaron Hill and RF Adam Lind are really the cream of this crop, as the Blue Jays have quite a few players who are better real-life players than fantasy players. I don’t expect Hill to repeat the home run total he had last season, but 2B is still very shallow and Hill is a definite starter in all leagues. Nearly all of their starting pitchers are high-risk, high-reward types due to the fact that they are all very young still. If I were to pick one out of the group, it would probably be Ricky Romero, as he’s shown the most success while with the big club to this point.

Prediction for 2010

The Blue Jays are in a semi-rebuilding mode at this point, as they have quite a few young players at the Major League level. I don’t believe that they will compete for the AL East crown this season, and could potentially see more movement if they can get a good return on players like Lyle Overbay, Jason Frasor, and Jeremy Accardo. But watch out for them in the coming seasons as they should improve under new general manager Alex Anthopoulos.

77-85, 4th in the AL East

Prospect Review – Kyle Drabek – P – TOR

Baseball Reference.Com Profile
Fangraphs Profile

The Basics
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#18 overall) of the 2006 Amateur Draft by the Phillies
Age: 22

Statistics

2009 – Clearwater (Florida State League – Phillies High-A) – 9 starts

• 4-1, 2.48 ERA, 61 2/3 IP
• 74 strikeouts, 19 walks
• 1.82 FIP

2009 – Reading (Eastern League – Phillies AA) – 14 starts

• 8-2, 3.64 ERA, 96 1/3 IP
• 76 strikeouts, 31 walks
• 3.83 FIP

2009 Totals (2 Levels)

• 12-3, 3.19 ERA, 158 IP
• 150 strikeouts, 50 walks

Rankings
Baseball America – #2 (PHI – 2010)
Baseball Prospectus – #1 (TOR – 2010) – 5 star
John Sickels – #3 (TOR – 2010) – B+

Analysis

Drabek spent part of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery,  but was able to have a very productive 2009 campaign, split between Clearwater and Reading. He was dominant at Clearwater, posting a 1.82 FIP and 74 strikeouts to only 19 walks in 61 2/3 IP. He was promoted to Reading (AA) in June, but saw a bit of a dropoff in his control. He still posted a very respectable 3.83 FIP, but had 31 walks in 96 1/3 IP. The increased walk total towards the end of the season is a small concern, but this could be attributable to the jump in innings to 158, and tiring as a result.

Drabek was one of the key pieces to the trade that brought Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, and had been discussed during the season for that same purpose as well. Considered to be the top pitching prospect in the Phillies system, it was no surprise that any trade that included Halladay would also require Drabek going the other direction.

Drabek throws from a 3/4 arm slot, with a high leg kick when pitching out of the windup.

From MLBFantasyProspects.Com’s profile: Drabek has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, a nasty curve with horizontal-like action, and a developing change. Now, some have suggested Drabek’s upside is limited because he only has two-plus pitches (fastball and curve). Don’t believe the nega-hype. Drabek didn’t start using a change until he reached the professional ranks. Further, his signature pitches are so filthy that he will turn out just fine even if his change tops out as average.

Outlook

Drabek will be given plenty of time to develop in the Blue Jays system, as there are still quite a few young pitchers that are either at the Major League level, or very close to it. I can foresee him starting the season back at AA, and being promoted to AAA if he pitches well. Based on the scouting report above, I can see him being a #2 starter potentially, assuming he can improve his control from the end of the 2009 season.

Prediction for 2010

11-8, 3.50 ERA, 165 IP, 145 strikeouts, 40 walks

Expected ETA

Midseason 2011, with the possibility of 2012 if the Blue Jays do not need him at the Major League level until then.

Tomorrow’s prospect for Review: Brett Lawrie (2B) of the Milwaukee Brewers

Trade Review – PHI/SEA/TOR/OAK

Philadelphia Phillies receive SP Roy Halladay (TOR), RP Philippe Aumont (SEA), P Juan Ramirez (SEA), OF Tyson Gillies (SEA), and $6,000,000 (TOR)

Seattle Mariners receive SP Cliff Lee (PHI)

Toronto Blue Jays receive C Travis D’Arnaud (PHI), SP Kyle Drabek (PHI), and 1B/3B Brett Wallace (OAK)

Oakland Athletics receive OF Michael Taylor (PHI)

The Phillies
At first, these trades seemed odd to me. They went and got Halladay, whom they had coveted for quite a while. I had visions of how tough a rotation that would be throughout the year – Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Happ, and Blanton. And then the other shoe fell and they moved Lee as well. The prospects they received are interesting, but I’m not 100% sure that the return they got for Lee was similar to the package that they gave up to get him initially.

What is there to be said about Roy Halladay, really? He has won 16 games or more each of the last 4 seasons. He won 20 last year. He has posted a sub-3.20 era 4 of the last 5 seasons. He struck out 200 batters the last 2 seasons. He won the 2003 Cy Young Award. He has established himself as one of the most durable, and best pitchers in the majors. While it isn’t a huge upgrade for this year between Lee and Halladay, the fact that they are getting him signed to an extension (sounds like it will be 3 yrs, $60 million at the moment) is critical to this trade being a success for the Phillies. That new extension will take him through the age of 36. So the Phillies are getting some of his best potential years to come, and not signing him to a ridiculously long extension.

Aumont has been working as a reliever exclusively, splitting time between High-A and AA. He posted a respectable line of 3.88 with 16 saves and 59 strikeouts in 51 innings between the two stops. Aumont finished last season as the #3 prospect according to John Sickels, and was generally considered to be a high-end pitching prospect. I think that Aumont would be a lot more interesting as a starting pitcher, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Phillies will convert him back or not.

Juan Ramirez looks like a solid starting pitching prospect. In the California League in 2009, he posted an 8-10 record with a 5.12 era,  111 strikeouts and 53 walks in 153 innings. I am more interested in his 2008 numbers, due to their being accomplished in the Midwest League. His line that year: 6-9, 4.14 era, 113 strikeouts, and 38 walks in 124 innings pitched. John Sickels had him at #4 in the Mariners system at the end of the 2008 season.


Gillies appears to be a very good speedster out in the outfield. He posted a .341/.430/.486 line with 9 homers and 44 steals. While these numbers are a bit inflated due to his playing the full season in the California League (known for its offense numbers), he also posted similar numbers in 2008 in the Northwest League (.313/.439/.427). He doesn’t appear that he has a lot of power, but its possible he could grow into that as he gets older. He will be only 21 when the 2010 season begins.

The Mariners
I think that the Mariners did really well here. They gave up a prospect whose luster had faded (Aumont), and two young prospects who are realistically unlikely to help the Major League team in the next 3 years. They turned those players into another ace for the top of their pitching staff. The combination of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee at the top of their rotation really solidifies the Mariners’ chances to win their division next year. When you add in the fact that the Angels have lost 2 major players on their team (Lackey, Figgins), and replaced them with very little as of yet, I really like the Mariners to win this division as of right now.

The Blue Jays
The Jays really felt like they had to move Halladay, or potentially lose him to free agency for just some draft picks. The return they got, in my opinion, is fair. Not a slam dunk, but fair. Wallace becomes the heir apparent to first base in my opinion, and speculation is already out there that the Jays could move Lyle Overbay. Wallace had a very good year between AA Springfield, AAA Memphis, and AAA Sacramento, posting a .293/.367/.455 line with 20 homers and 63 rbi. He appears to be a solid prospect, and should turn out to be a solid major league starter.

Kyle Drabek ended this season as probably the top pitching prospect in the Phillies organization. He finished 12-3, with a 3.19 era. He finished with 150 strikeouts against 50 walks in 158 innings pitched. He pitched in AA last season, and is likely to start the season in AAA. The Blue Jays realistically, don’t need him to hit the majors for at least another season, with all the excellent starting pitchers that are already at or near the majors (Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Marc Rzepcynski, Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, Robert Ray). So it really just increases their depth in pitching.

Travis D’Arnaud is a very young catcher who spent the season at Single-A Lakewood. He posted a .255/.319/.419 line with 13 homers, 71 rbi, and 8 steals. I actually am not too familiar with him, so I went looking for a good profile of him, and found it here. After reading it, it appears he is considered to be a solid defensive catcher who is likely to stick at the position long term. A solid catching prospect overall.

Overall, I think that the Blue Jays did manage to address some specific positional needs in trading Halladay, and while this return isn’t necessarily as high as it would have been had he been moved in July, they did well to get some solid prospects here.

The Athletics
For my hometown A’s, I really like this trade. This makes me believe that the A’s do not believe that Wallace could stick at 3B, where they really needed him. So they turn him into a top-tier outfield prospect. While I would normally be concerned about the fact that they already have a ton of outfielders at or near the major league level (Rajai Davis, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Sweeney all come to mind), I am inclined to believe that Taylor is better than most, if not all, of these players. The Athletics are always seeming to be short of power hitters, and Taylor definitely fits the bill. He posted a .320/.395/.544 line between AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley for the Phillies last year, along with 20 homers and 21 stolen bases. The movement of Wallace also makes Jake Fox (recently acquired from the Cubs) to be the main option at 3B besides the permanently injured (sad, sad I know) Eric Chavez. I am amazed that Billy Beane managed to make his way into this trade, and gave up a solid prospect for a better one in my opinion.

Overall Review
I think that overall, each team did well with this trade. The Mariners appear to be making at least a partial push to win now. The A’s get a power bat that they desperately need. The Blue Jays get 3 solid prospects that will help their team to rebuild their farm system. The Phillies get an even better ace for the top of their pitching staff, and 3 high-end prospects as well. And somehow they got the Phillies to kick in $6 million bucks! It remains to be seen exactly how the prospects involved are going to turn out, and whether or not Halladay can stay healthy for the length of his new extension. But after trying to make sense of this for the past 24 hours, I can safely say that each team has improved themselves in at least some small manner.

CURRENT WINNER: Seattle Mariners

LONG-TERM WINNER: Philadelphia Phillies