Tag Archives: Trevor Hoffman

Weekly Links for January 15th, 2011


Time for some more of the better reading from across the Internet again…

Finally, this tweet from Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus:

As we stand right now, and using 2010 slots, the #Rays TWELVE picks from 24-88 have a SLOT cost of around $9.12M

Yes, that is less money than the 2011 salary of Rafael Soriano. And with this year’s draft widely considered to be one of the deepest in a long time, they sit in an extremely good position to continue to build their farm system depth.

Advertisements

Fantasy Rankings in Review – Relief Pitchers


Back in February, I took my first shot at attempting to rank players for fantasy purposes. After a full season, I thought it wise to take a look back at how they went, and compare them to how it actually turned out and see if there is anything to be gained from it. The last position up for review is the relief pitchers, and you can find my preseason rankings here. Note that I have removed any starting pitchers who appeared in these rankings due to previous season qualifications.

Yahoo’s Top 15 Relief Pitchers

1. Billy Wagner
2. Rafael Soriano
3. Heath Bell
4. Brian Wilson
5. Neftali Feliz
6. Carlos Marmol
7. Joakim Soria
8. Mariano Rivera
9. Hong-Chih Kuo
10. Matt Capps
11. John Axford
12. Chris Perez
13. Joaquin Benoit
14. Francisco Rodriguez
15. Andrew Bailey

Of my top 15 preseason ranks, Jonathan Broxton (1), Huston Street (8), Brian Fuentes (12), Francisco Cordero (13), Trevor Hoffman (14), and Ryan Franklin (15) all finished out of the top 15. Continue reading

Original Draft Series: #27 – Cincinnati Reds


For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #27: Cincinnati Reds

General Managers(since 1994)

Jim Bowden (1994-2003): 782-776
Dan O’Brien (2004-2005): 149-175
Wayne Krivsky (2006-2008): 226-260
Walt Jocketty (2009-Current): 78-84

Team Performance

Playoffs Division Finish
WC League Playoff App 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
0 0 2 2 2 4 3 5

Both of the division titles came in 1994-1995, and unfortunately they lost in the 163rd game in 1999 to just miss the playoffs. With those exceptions, the past 15 years has not been particularly good for the Reds. They have had a few really good players who have gone through the organization, but there are still a lot of players that were drafted that are down in the minors. All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position Name Acquired Years with Org.
Stats with Organization
Left?
C Ryan Hanigan Amateur FA – 2002 8 153 gm, .281/.383/.371, 7 HR, 39 RBI, 43 R Currently with Org.
1B Joey Votto 2002 – 2nd Rd 8 365 gm, .309/.391/.537, 66 HR, 226 RBI, 19 SB, 202 R Currently with Org.
2B Justin Turner 2006 – 7th Rd 3 No Major League Appearances with Organization Traded to BAL – 12/9/08
3B Paul Janish 2004 – 5th Rd 6 151 gm, .210/.300/.303, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 2 SB, 45 R Currently with Org.
SS Adam Rosales 2005 – 12th Rd 4 105 gm, .212/.296/.309, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 2 SB, 23 R Traded to OAK – 2/1/10
LF Adam Dunn 1998 – 2nd Rd 10 1 All-Star Appearance
1087 gm, .247/.380/.520, 270 HR, 646 RBI, 58 SB, 678 R
Traded to ARI – 8/11/08
CF Jay Bruce 2005 – 1st Rd (12) 5 274 gm, .246/.319/.462, 52 HR, 139 RBI, 12 SB, 148 R Currently with Org.
RF Austin Kearns 1998 – 1st Rd (7) 7 452 gm., .267/.358/.468, 71 HR, 263 RBI, 20 SB, 248 R Traded to WAS – 7/13/06
SP Johnny Cueto Int’l FA – 2004 6 26-26, 4.59 ERA, 355 K, 152 BB, 423.1 IP, 1.370 WHIP Currently with Org.
SP Mike Leake 2009 – 1st Rd (8) 2 5-0, 2.68 ERA, 52 K, 29 BB, 77.1 IP, 1.358 WHIP Currently with Org.
SP Homer Bailey 2004 – 1st Rd (7) 6 13-15, 5.46 ERA, 173 K, 118 BB, 245.2 IP, 1.583 WHIP Currently with Org.
SP Sam LeCure 2005 – 4th Rd 5 1-3, 3.75 ERA, 16 K, 15 BB, 24 IP, 1.583 WHIP Currently with Org.
SP Dustin Moseley 2000 – 1st Rd (34) 4 No Major League Appearances with Organization Traded to LAA – 12/14/04
RP Jeff Stevens 2005 – 6th Rd 1 No Major League Appearances with Organization Traded to CLE – 6/13/06
RP Enerio del Rosario Int’l FA – 2005 5 1-1, 2.08 ERA, 3 K, 4 BB, 8.2 IP, 1.962 WHIP Currently with Org.
RP Logan Ondrusek 2005 – 13th Rd 5 0-0, 8.10 ERA, 7 K, 6 BB, 13.1 IP, 1.950 WHIP Currently with Org.
RP Carlos Fisher 2005 – 11th Rd 5 2-2, 5.40 ERA, 58 K, 40 BB, 63.1 IP, 1.642 WHIP Currently with Org.
RP Todd Coffey 1998 – 41st Rd 10 12-9, 4.62 ERA, 137 K, 63 BB, 206.1 IP, 1.585 WHIP Selected by MIL – 9/10/08
CL Trevor Hoffman 1989 – 11th Rd 3 No Major League Appearances with Organization Expansion Draft – 11/17/92
BN Chris Dickerson (OF) 2003 – 16th Rd 7 148 gm, .274/.367/.421, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 19 SB, 60 R Currently with Org.
BN Drew Stubbs (OF) 2006 – 1st Rd (8) 4 103 gm, .256/.323/.426, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 23 SB, 62 R Currently with Org.
BN Chris Heisey (OF) 2006 – 17th Rd 4 25 gm, .294/.400/.676, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 9 R Currently with Org.
BN Chris Denorfia (OF) 2002 – 19th Rd 5 67 gm, .278/.358/.382, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 2 SB, 22 R Traded to OAK – 4/27/07
BN Jason LaRue (C) 1995 – 5th Rd 11 715 gm, .239/.325/.415, 84 HR, 303 RBI, 12 SB, 263 R Purchased by KC – 11/20/06
BN Craig Tatum (C) 2004 – 3rd Rd 5 26 gm., .162/.250/.221, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 R Selected by BAL – 11/20/09

The Reds have had a little bit of bad luck, as they have generally been good enough to keep out of the top-10 picks in the draft, with only 6 picks in the top-10 in the past 15 years. But the performance on the field has still not been particularly good, and they haven’t had a whole lot of flags to fly for division titles as a result.

June Amateur Draft

Looking at their drafting results, they have had only 20 first round picks in the last 15 drafts (not including 2010). With only 6 picks in the top-10 during those drafts, they haven’t had the access to a lot of the top-tier picks in the first round. That said, they have done reasonably well in finding top players in other rounds, with Adam Dunn and Joey Votto (2nd Round) being the best examples. That said, they missed on quite a few draft picks in the early 2000s, most notably the 2002 3rd overall pick of Chris Gruler. Taken after Gruler at picks 6 and 7: Zack Greinke and Prince Fielder.

International Free Agency

The Reds have been slightly more active than some of the previous teams in the international free agent market, with SP Johnny Cueto being the biggest success story to this point for the team. The most notable signee is one who hasn’t made his Major League debut yet, but is likely to before the end of this season. Down at AAA, Aroldis Chapman, signed out of Cuba, looks like he’s going to be a top-10 prospect before the end of the season, if not at the Major League level by then. With the exception of Cueto and Chapman, however, they have not really seen a whole lot of success to this point. I’m wondering if having Jim Bowden as the GM during the 90’s or Marge Schott as the owner could have caused some of these issues.

Overall Grade

C- would be an apt grade for the Reds in my opinion. They have a lot of hope for the future, with top starting pitchers Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman to help anchor their starting rotation. While the only real star they have developed to this point was Adam Dunn, they have some bright spots in 1B Joey Votto, OF Jay Bruce,  and coming prospects Todd Frazier and Yonder Alonso also provide some hope. Having Walt Jocketty around to run things is likely to help as well.

The Week In Review: May 19th – May 23rd


If the Playoffs Started Now

Texas Rangers (25-20) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (32-12)
New York Yankees (26-17) vs. Minnesota (26-18)

Cincinnati Reds (25-19) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (26-17)
St. Louis Cardinals (26-19) vs. San Diego Padres (26-18)

Top Stories of the Week that Was

  • The Hanley Ramirez lack of hustle story appears to have resolved itself, after Ramirez met with his teammates and Hall of Famers Andre Dawson and Tony Perez. I really hope that this is the last time we hear about Hanley Ramirez in a bad light, because the Marlins really want (and need) him to be the face of their franchise when they move into their new stadium in 2012.
  • Trevor Hoffman worked the 8th inning of Sunday’s game for the Brewers, and appears to have been removed from the closer’s role at least in the short term. I really hope that by the end of the season he gets it back together and gets on a roll, as I have to imagine that this is most likely going to be his last season in the Majors. He’s only 4 short of 6o0 career saves, which I have to imagine he would love to achieve before retiring.
  • Milton Bradley returned from the restricted list, and sounds like he may be finally getting the help that he needs. The talent is definitely still there, but the key is that he may finally be in a good spot to get the support he needs. Seattle is full of clubhouse leaders like Ken Griffey Jr and Mike Sweeney, and I have to imagine they are helping a lot.
  • Eric Chavez was put on the disabled list on Saturday to help clear a spot for the returning Mark Ellis. Chavez has been experiencing neck spasms for the majority of the season, and it sounds like this may finally be the injury. Chavez said at the beginning of the season that if he suffered another major injury, he would most likely retire. Well, apparently that may be the case this time. As an A’s fan, the whole thing is really sad to me, as Chavez was so good for the start of his career, but was just completely derailed by injuries for the last 4 seasons.
  • Sunday brought sad news that Jose Lima had died of a heart attack. Lima wasn’t the best pitcher, but he was always one of the most entertaining to be sure. He had a really great season in 1999, when it was always Lima-Time. Sad to hear this.
  • Jimmy Rollins was placed on the disabled list again after reinjuring his leg. I’m wondering at this point if this is going to be a lost season along the lines of what happened to Jose Reyes last year.
  • Nyjer Morgan didn’t have the greatest week ever. On Wednesday, he misplayed a ball which ended up as an inside-the-park homerun. Which would have been bad enough, except that it also happened to him again on Saturday.  Hopefully this week will be better.
  • Brad Penny was having a pretty good game on Friday, when he came up with the bases loaded against Joel Pineiro. He hit a grand slam, and proceeded to not be able to come back out to the mound in the following inning. A back injury has landed him on the disabled list.
  • The injury bug hit some more big name players, as Jorge Posada and Grady Sizemore were both placed on the disabled list. For fantasy purposes, I would think that both of them are droppable in shallower leagues.

I’m working on a new project and am hoping to have posts for it up starting this week sometime.

Fantasy Preview – Relievers


Today is the last of my fantasy positional rankings today with the reliever rankings.

A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 15 Relievers for 2010

1. Jonathan Broxton – LAD
W ERA SV K WHIP
7 2.61 36 114 0.961
Broxton is probably the most dominant strikeout reliever in the Majors right now. He’s going to get a lot of save chances, and has about as strong of a lock on the position as is possible. The win total seems unlikely to be repeated, but he’s going to give you a lot of saves and a very good ERA and WHIP as well.
2. Mariano Rivera – NYY
W ERA SV K WHIP
3 1.76 44 72 0.905
Rivera is as stable as it comes. He’s going to get you a sub-2 ERA, 40+ saves, and a WHIP right around 1. There’s not a whole lot to be said about him other than he’s also extremely safe as well.
3. Jonathan Papelbon – BOS
W ERA SV K WHIP
1 1.85 38 76 1.147
Papelbon is another closer who’s going to get a lot of save opportunities and strikes out more than batter per inning as well. I can see him getting over 40 saves this season as well
4. Joakim Soria – KC
W ERA SV K WHIP
3 2.21 30 69 1.132
Soria has  posted a few really good seasons in a row, and is also locked in as the closer for the Royals. He struck out more than 11 per 9 innings last year, and will post solid ratios as well.
5. Heath Bell – SD
W ERA SV K WHIP
6 2.71 42 79 1.12
The only real concern I have about Bell is whether or not he gets moved by the Padres. But it seems likely to me that if he does get moved, he’s probably going to be closing for whomever he goes to, since he’s still under team control for another 2 seasons. High strikeouts, low ratios, and a lock on the job as long as he’s in San Diego.
6. Andrew Bailey – OAK
W ERA SV K WHIP
6 1.84 26 91 0.876
Bailey was an epiphany last season, taking the closing job in early May and never looking back. He should post a high strikeout rate and low ratios, although the ERA is unlikely to remain as low as it was last season.
7. Brian Wilson – SF
W ERA SV K WHIP
5 2.74 38 83 1.203
I’ve never been a huge fan of Wilson, but I think that has more to do with him being on the Giants than anything. But he’s got a lock on the Giants’ closer job, and is going to provide strikeouts and good ratios as well.
8. Huston Street – COL
W ERA SV K WHIP
4 3.06 35 70 0.908
Street came into the 2009 season having been traded to the Rockies, and without a guaranteed closing job. But he quickly took over the job, and returned to the form that had won him the Rookie of the Year award. I have to imagine that unless he struggles pretty mightily, he will remain the closer and I wouldn’t be concerned about the fact that he’s in Colorado.
9. Francisco Rodriguez – NYM
W ERA SV K WHIP
3 3.71 35 73 1.309
The walks are a real concern. But this is a trend that has been going on for the last 3 seasons, and a lowered strikeout rate as well. The Mets are committed to him for another 2 seasons at another $25 M total, so I think he’s going to have to struggle pretty badly for him to lose his job. But the Mets seem unlikely to get a massive amount of save opportunities, and all in all makes Rodriguez a bad value to me.
10. Rafael Soriano – TAM
W ERA SV K WHIP
1 2.97 27 102 1.057
The concern here is health. He pitched excellently last season, and provides an extremely high strikeout rate. I think he’s going to see a slight increase in his ratios due to pitching in the AL East now, but he still seems likely to post a sub 1.2 WHIP and sub 3 ERA.
11. Billy Wagner – ATL
W ERA SV K WHIP
1 1.72 0 26 1.021
Wagner did very well this offseason, and all signs point to him having an excellent season. The health is still some concern, but as long as he stays healthy he should be a lock as the closer for the Braves. He posted an excellent strikeout rate, and could conceivably provide top-5 closer value if he is healthy all year long.
12. Brian Fuentes – LAA
W ERA SV K WHIP
1 3.93 48 46 1.40
Fuentes and his lower strikeout rate concern me, as does the walk rate. He did lead the league in saves, but for when you will have to take him, I’ll pass. The fact that there’s a closer in waiting in that bullpen does not persuade me otherwise.
13. Francisco Cordero – CIN
W ERA SV K WHIP
2 2.16 39 58 1.32
Cordero, quietly, continues to post solid, if not amazing seasons in Cincinnati. His walk rate remains a concern, which has elevated his WHIP. 2009 saw a drop in his strikeout rate, but it is still a respectable 7.83. A good second tier closer.
14. Trevor Hoffman – MIL
W ERA SV K WHIP
3 1.83 37 48 0.907
Hoffman remains a good source of saves. He’s not going to strikeout a lot of batters at this point, but the only way I can see him losing his job as the closer is to injure himself.
15. Ryan Franklin – STL
W ERA SV K WHIP
4 1.92 38 44 1.197
Franklin had what was easily his best season last year, posting career bests in ERA and WHIP along with the 38 saves. He’s going into this season with the closer job sewn up, but I think that he’s going to see some regression. The hard part with Franklin is that he’s not going to provide a lot of strikeouts for the innings he pitches, but the saves are still worth something. Just don’t go looking for this season to go as well as last did.

After my top 15, there’s a lot of closers still available. I generally tend to be of the mindset that saves come into the league, so I think it’s important that if you’re going to look for saves to keep an eye on strikeout rates. There’s a lot of unsettled jobs as of these rankings (WAS, PIT, FLA, MIN) as well to watch during Spring Training.

There are a lot of relievers that can provide some value in deeper leagues, even if they are not providing saves.

Tomorrow I will continue on with my team previews, as I review the National League East this week, starting with the Atlanta Braves.