Back in January and February, I reviewed 30 minor league prospects, and made some predictions. With the season over at the Minor League level and nearly over at the Major League level, I figured now was a great time to look back at how I did. I posted my thoughts on the first 20 prospects Tuesday and Wednesday, and will look at the final 10 today.
Tony Sanchez (PIT)
The Pirates were really looking cheap when they drafted Sanchez, but he has shown a fair amount of talent at this point. My prediction back in January: .320/.390/.490, 12 HR, 65 RBI (Split between High-A and AA). He ended up hitting .314/.416/.454 with 4 HR and 35 RBI in just 59 games due to injury. I think he’s going to end up a lot higher on prospect charts for 2011 and hopefully he’ll be able to stay healthy the whole season.
Chris Carter (OAK)
I really thought that Carter would come up sometime around mid-season, and he just didn’t hit well enough to unseat Daric Barton. He hit 31 homeruns and drove in 94, but the .258 batting average really profiles him to be a Mark Reynolds-type power hitter who will strike out quite a bit. I think that the Athletics will find somewhere for him to play next season at the Majors, simply because they have so few power hitters in their lineup.
Jaff Decker (SD)
Decker did not have the greatest season, and was definitely not within what I had predicted either: .305/.395/.495, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 8 stolen bases (High-A and AA). He spent the season only at High-A, missing part of the year due to injury. The batting line was a bit lower (.262/.374/.500), but the power is better than I thought (17 HR, 58 RBI). I think he will be a bit better next season since he should have recovered from the injury, but it concerns me that the batting average was so low in the California League.
Jenrry Mejia (NYM)
The Mets really messed with his development this season, having him work out of the bullpen to start the season before finally moving him back to the minors to work as a starting pitcher. I think that he’s going to be in the rotation come 2011 for the Mets, and that he will have some control issues (16 walks in 42 minor league innings, 20 walks in 39 major league innings).
Kyle Drabek (TOR)
Drabek pitched extremely well at AA over the span of the season, going 14-9 with a 2.94 ERA and 132 strikeouts. The 68 walks in 162 innings is concerning, and much worse than I had predicted (40 walks in 145 innings). He earned himself a few starts at the Major League level at the end of the season, but I think he’s going to be in AAA next year, at least to start out with.
Brett Lawrie (MIL)
I thought that Lawrie would post this line at AA: .270/.340/.440, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 15 stolen bases. His actual line: .285/.346/.451, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 30 stolen bases. Clearly overestimated the power, and clearly underestimated the speed. It remains to be seen where Lawrie will play once he gets to the Majors, but he seems likely to be at AAA to start next year and should earn a callup if he continues to hit like he did in 2010.
Chris Withrow (LAD)
In February I wrote that I thought he would do well if he could improve his control, and predicted the following: 9-7, 3.75 ERA, 145 IP, 150 strikeouts, 55 walks. Well, it appears that he did not improve his control, as he went 4-9 with a 5.97 ERA, 129 2/3 IP, 120 strikeouts but 69 walks. I think that honestly, Withrow should repeat AA to try and get his walks better under control.
Casey Kelly (BOS)
Kelly was in his first full season of only pitching and not trying to play shortstop, and I really thought he would do well: 10-7, 3.20 ERA, 135 IP, 115 strikeouts, 25 walks. Oops. His actual line: 3-5, 5.31 ERA, 95 IP, 81 strikeouts, 35 walks. I think that the Red Sox will probably leave him in AA to start 2011, and show some solid numbers before moving him up again.
Yonder Alonso (CIN)
Alonso remains a bit blocked, despite hitting .296/.355/.470 with 12 homers, 56 runs batted in, and 9 stolen bases in just 101 AAA games. Joey Votto has clearly established himself as the 1B for the team at this point, and Alonso’s future with the organization clearly lies in the outfield. Whether or not he can play the position at the Major League level will determine whether he is traded in the next year.
Jacob Turner (DET)
I came into my Turner post with no idea, and made this prediction: 10 K/9 IP, 3 BB/9 IP. What he actually did: around 9 K/9 IP, sub 2 BB/9 IP. He split the year between Low and High A, and I think that he will either start the season at High A again or could even see a promotion to AA. One of the better prospects in the minors at this point.