Prospect Review – Jacob Turner – P – DET

MLB.COM Draft Profile

The Basics
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
How Acquired: Drafted in the 1st round (#9 overall) by the Detroit Tigers in the 2009 Amateur Draft
Age: 18

Statistics

Turner did not pitch professionally in 2009. He will make his debut in the 2010 season.

Rankings
Baseball America – #1 (DET – 2010)
Baseball Prospectus – #1 (DET – 2010) – 5 star
John Sickels – #2 (DET – 2010) – B+

Analysis

Well, Turner is a bit of a hard prospect to judge based on his professional statistics, since he has none. The Tigers made him the 9th overall pick in last year’s amateur draft, and will probably start next season at either Rookie Ball or Single-A.

Thankfully, in terms of information, since he was projected to be such a high draft pick, our friends at Youtube have a fair amount of video of him.

My observations from some of the videos:

From #1: Turner is a big kid for an 18 year old. MLB has him at 6’5″ tall, which should help him as he learns to throw a bit more downhill. His throwing motion looks really raw, as I would imagine that he’s probably been getting by on velocity and quality of pitch more than deception. Not necessarily a bad thing for his age, just something to be worked with by the Tigers’ pitching staff. He appears to have a 3/4 arm angle for his pitching, although he reminds me a little bit of Jeff Weaver in that he appears to drop down a little more on some throws. I’m not really sure if this is an inability to duplicate his motion, or if he is trying to do that.

From MLB.COM’s draft scouting report:

Turner is what you look for in a high school right-hander — big, strong and projectable. Thought to be one of the better prep arms in the class, it was unclear whether he’d live up to advanced billing. He has a good arm and there’s likely to be more velocity, especially if he can correct some delivery flaws. His secondary pitches lag behind somewhat and his command can be inconsistent as he sometimes elevates his pitches.

Outlook

Turner at this point, is really going to be a long ways away from the Majors. I am inclined to believe the talent evaluators on a player like him, as at this point he really is nothing more than projection.

Prediction for 2010

I am not even going to hazard a guess on this one, other than ratios: 10 K/9 IP, 3 BB/9 IP. For me, he’s just too raw to really make a good guess. But odds appear to me that he will be started at a level he should dominate early on.

Expected ETA

Probably 2013 at the soonest, but honestly it feels like a bit of a wild guess to me. He’s a prospect I definitely will have to keep an eye on during the season, and potentially review again after this season.

Tomorrow’s Post: Review of Prospect Reviews and What’s Next