The Next Contract for Albert Pujols

With the self-imposed deadline come and gone, it appears that for now, Albert Pujols will play out his contract, and have the option to test free agency come November. The potential suitors who could vie for his services if he actually reaches free agency have been written about ad nauseum, but I think it’s important to look at the actual impact Pujols will have on the game itself.

If He Returns to the Cardinals

If Albert returns to the Cardinals, two things stand out potentially for him. He could be the next great lifetime Cardinal, in the ilk of Stan Musial and Bob Gibson, as famous for being a Cardinal as a great ballplayer. His numbers to this point clearly indicate that he is already a great player, one of the greats of all time in just 10 seasons. But he could also make a run at some of the great Cardinal records, many of which are held by Musial.

Michael Young’s Trade Request

According to MLBTR, Michael Young has requested a trade, and will only accept a trade to 8 teams. From T.R. Sullivan, those teams are: Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels, Padres. Realistically, what of those are the best fit?

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Young is currently under contract for 3 more seasons for a total of $48 million. Realistically, unless the Rangers eat a major portion of the contract, the Twins, Padres, and Astros seem like poor fits. But what about the rest of the teams?

The Next to [Insert Milestone Here]

With the Super Bowl now in the record books, I thought it would be interesting to see who will be the next players to pass some of the big milestones in 2011. Every year we see some big milestones surpassed, and this year is trending to be no exception.

Hits

• Derek Jeter – currently sitting at 2926 hits, or 74 shy of 3000 hits for his career. In 2010, he got his 74th hit of the season on June 8th, in his 58th game of the season.
• Ivan Rodriguez – currently at 2817 hits, 183 shy of 3000 for his career. He has not had that many hits in a season since 1999, and unless he plays substantially in both 2011 and 2012, he doesn’t seem all that likely to get there.
• Chipper Jones – currently at 2490 hits, 10 shy of 2500 for his career. It sounded like he’s only going to play 2011, so he wouldn’t get to 3000 if he does that. His Hall of Fame case is pretty good even if he doesn’t get there though.

Trade Review – Vernon Wells to the Angels

Holy crap! I wasn’t expecting any more big moves this offseason. And I definitely wasn’t expecting this. Today the Angels finally figured out who to spend some of their money on, and also managed to unload some of their depth at catcher. The Angels acquired a new center fielder, Vernon Wells, from the Blue Jays in exchange for catcher Mike Napoli, outfielder Juan Rivera, and $5 million in cash.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have added a solid defender and a player coming off of a very good season. Wells hit .273/.331/.515 with 31 home runs and 88 runs batted in last year, but his splits from 2010 are a bit troubling:

Trade Review – Matt Garza to the Cubs

Another starting pitcher came off the trade market on Friday, as the Rays traded starter Matt Garza and minor leaguers Fernando Perez and Zach Rosscup to the Cubs in exchange for prospects Chris Archer, Robinson Chirinos, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, and Sam Fuld.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs acquire Garza coming off what was probably his best season to date, as he posted a 15-10 record with a 3.91 ERA, 150 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP for the Rays. They will add him to a rather deep rotation already, with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Silva, and Randy Wells likely to hold spots. Also in competition for a rotation spot for the Cubs are Andrew Cashner, Tom Gorzelanny, and possibly Sean Marshall.

Trade Review – Zack Greinke to the Brewers

After all of the posturing that was coming out about what the Royals were looking for in return for 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, it appears that a trade came together pretty quickly. Jim Breen over at Bernie’s Crew broke the story last evening, and the trade that appears to have been finalized was Greinke, Yuniesky Betancourt, and $2 M going to the Brewers in exchange for SS Alcides Escobar, OF Lorenzo Cain, SP Jake Odorizzi, and SP Jeremy Jeffress.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have really improved their starting pitching with both the acquisition of Shaun Marcum and now Zack Greinke. Their rotation now consists of Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson most likely, which could well be the top starting rotation in the NL Central, and probably 3rd in the NL behind the Phillies and the Giants.

Free Agent Review – Cliff Lee to the Phillies

Wow. That’s pretty much all I can say.

With the news overnight that there may have been as much as $50 million left on the table by one Clifton Phifer Lee, it has been a complete shock to see that Cliff Lee has agreed to sign with the Phillies. The terms appear to be for 5 years, $115 million dollars, with an option for a 6th year that might be reasonably achievable.

From the Phillies Perspective

Honestly, I’m not sure I understand this entirely. Clearly, Lee is more than $10 M better than Joe Blanton ($20M salary for Lee, $10.5M for Blanton), but this seems a bit excessive. Adding Lee now brings them a 4th ace to go with Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt for next season. The part that could really kill the Phillies long term is the amount of money they have tied up. The Phillies will most likely have the highest payroll of any team not playing in the Bronx next year, and have a ton of money committed to their roster already for 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Free Agent Signing – Jayson Werth to the Nationals

It was announced on Sunday evening (to quite a bit of dismay) that the Nationals had signed free agent outfielder Jayson Werth to a free agent contract. The dismay came with the terms of said contract: 7 years, $126 million. I will be attempting to discuss the impacts of this without knowing that Carl Crawford has already signed (and for how much he received).

From the Nationals Perspective

They came out and said that they needed to overpay to get a top flight free agent like Werth to consider a team with so little of a chance of making the playoffs anytime soon. But they felt that they needed to start bringing in marquee players to go with the young core that they are developing. Werth will slot into right field for the Nationals for at least the next couple of seasons, and could possibly move to left field when top prospect Bryce Harper is ready for the show.

I do find the argument that they had to overpay a bit unusual, as the part that seems to have been an overpayment is not the dollars per year, as much as the years themselves. But I also think that it definitely sends a signal to the rest of the league that the Nationals are not happy with being the laughingstock of the National League.

From the Phillies Perspective

There was simply no way that the Phillies were ever going to match an offer as ridiculously large as that for Werth. They have Domonic Brown in AAA, who will most likely be the everyday right fielder for the team before the end of 2011, and at practically no cost in comparison. The Phillies will receive draft picks as compensation, but the Nationals’ first rounder is protected, so they will receive a sandwich pick and the Nationals’ second rounder.

My Thoughts

I didn’t really go into the impact that the signing has on the market, as I think that his signing has a similar effect to the Carl Crawford signing. That said, I am unbelievably amazed that the Nationals gave out such a long and lucrative contract. Werth is 31 years old, and has only had 500+ at bats in 2 seasons. I think that this is the type of contract that could really cause the Nationals some problems if he does not play well throughout the length of it. That said, I never fault the player for taking the money. $126 million is a lot of money. A LOT OF MONEY.

The funny thing that seemed to be noted pretty early on was that the last two contracts of that length and dollar amount exactly have not exactly gone the way their teams had hoped. Those contracts? Barry Zito from the Giants, and Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays.

Free Agent Signing – Carl Crawford To The Red Sox

I know I skipped that humongous contract that Jayson Werth signed last weekend, and I plan on getting back to that, but this signing seemed to come so far out of left field that I felt I needed to write about it first. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe is reporting (via MLBTR) that the Red Sox have not completed their offseason spending spree, and have agreed to a contract with the top position player free agent on the market, Carl Crawford, on a 7 year, $142 million contract. Before I get into the impact on the involved parties, let’s note this: Crawford will now be the highest paid outfielder (based on Average Annual Value) in the history of baseball.

From the Red Sox Perspective

Clearly, they felt that they needed to make a gigantic splash after not reaching the playoffs last season. Crawford will bring them an excellent defender, a definitive speedster to pair with center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, and another middle of the order type hitter. I am not entirely sure how this lineup will be constructed, but this seems like a definite possibility:

1. Carl Crawford LF
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Kevin Youkilis 3B
4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B
5. David Ortiz DH
6. J.D. Drew RF
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
8. Marco Scutaro SS
9. Jacoby Ellsbury CF

Of course, this could change by having Gonzalez and Youkilis switch to offset having too many left handed batters in a row, but I’m not sure I see a lineup that makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox that doesn’t put Crawford at the top of it. They don’t really need him to be a #3 hitter type like the Rays did, and will probably not use him that way as a result.

I find it extremely interesting to see what the Red Sox are going to do long-term. They have now committed to Crawford through 2017, and seems like they have spent an amazing amount of long term money in the past few offseasons.

• Josh Beckett signed through 2014 at $17M per
• John Lackey signed through 2014 at $15.75M per

That said, they do have J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, and Mike Cameron all coming off the payroll come 2012. Speaking of Cameron, I’m not sure where he plays coming into 2011 unless they are completely banking on needing another full-time outfielder for when J.D. Drew or Jacoby Ellsbury get hurt. Always a possibility at this point.

From the Rays Perspective

The Rays will receive two compensation draft picks for losing Crawford to the Red Sox. They will receive the 24th pick for sure (the Red Sox’ first round pick), and a pick in the sandwich round as well. The only way that they could possibly lose this pick is if the Red Sox were to also sign Cliff Lee (based on the Elias rankings reported by MLBTR). The team had already established previously that they were extremely unlikely to retain Crawford, as they would simply be outbid for his services. Thankfully for them, they have a player who appears to possess similar tools (which I also wrote up last year) in Desmond Jennings.

What This Means for the Free Agent Market At Large

Crawford was pretty far and away the top prize on the position player side of the free agent market. As a result, his contract may start the dominoes going for a lot of the other secondary free agents on the market. To me, the players who could stand to benefit the most include Adrian Beltre, Cliff Lee, and Carl Pavano. The rising tide raises all ships, and Beltre now is the best offensive option available who is still on the market. Pavano’s value is helped if Lee’s value goes up, and with the Red Sox taking these shots across the bow of the Yankees, I am not sure I see a scenario where the Yankees don’t offer Lee the most money of any team.

Honestly, I’m not sure that there is a future free agent that this particularly affects as of right now. There is the possibility that the Red Sox don’t get Adrian Gonzalez inked to an extension. (As of this writing, I can’t find anything involving the Red Sox that definitively states a contract extension is complete.), which could affect the First Baseman market come next offseason, but it seems likely to me that someone is going to get paid to play 1B by the Red Sox starting in 2011 regardless of whether or not it is Adrian Gonzalez.

My Overall Thoughts

This one really came out of left field (not to be punny), as I didn’t really think that the Red Sox would go out and attempt to sign Crawford. I think he’s a class guy that will fit in well with the organization, and will definitely be able to take on the role of the “face of the franchise”, but will not necessarily need to do so. It seems a bit like an overreaction to not making the playoffs in 2010, but it’s hard to argue with spending your money on a player of the caliber of Crawford. The contract’s length does concern me some, as Crawford is a player who does rely on speed pretty significantly, and the contract will pay him until he is 36 years old. But otherwise, a job well done by the Red Sox, as it clearly makes the other teams that were chasing him weaker.

Trade Review: Shaun Marcum to the Brewers

The Winter Meetings hadn’t even officially kicked off and there had already been two trades, one gigantic one, and another which is a pretty decent sized one as well. I already wrote up the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but another one that came together pretty quickly on Sunday evening was the Brewers’ acquisition of Blue Jays’ starting pitcher Shaun Marcum in exchange for 2B prospect Brett Lawrie.