Fantasy Rankings in Review – First Basemen

Back in February, I took my first shot at attempting to rank players for fantasy purposes. After a full season, I thought it wise to take a look back at how they went, and compare them to how it actually turned out and see if there is anything to be gained from it. Next up is the review of my 1B rankings.

My Preseason Rankings
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Ryan Howard
6. Joey Votto
7. Mark Reynolds
8. Kevin Youkilis
9. Kendry Morales
10. Adrian Gonzalez
11. Derrek Lee
12. Justin Morneau
13. Adam Dunn
14. Pablo Sandoval
15. Carlos Pena

Yahoo’s Final Rankings (Top 15)
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Joey Votto
4. Paul Konerko
5. Adrian Gonzalez
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Aubrey Huff
8. Ryan Howard
9. Nick Swisher
10. Adam Dunn
11. David Ortiz
12. Martin Prado
13. Prince Fielder
14. Billy Butler
15. Adam LaRoche

I also mentioned Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko, Billy Butler, Garrett Jones, Lance Berkman, Chris Davis, Michael Cuddyer, Todd Helton, James Loney, Justin Smoak, and Chris Carter as players potentially having value this year.
From my preseason rankings, Kevin Youkilis (19), Derrek Lee (21), James Loney (24), and Justin Morneau (25) all finished in the top 25. Mark Reynolds, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, and Carlos Pena did not make the top 25 at the end of the season.
Free Agents: Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, Aubrey Huff, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Pena
What We Saw

Buster Posey’s season was better than anyone even thought. He finished at #23 in the 1B rankings for Yahoo, which is clearly an elite offensive position. Wow.

I thought Joey Votto would do extremely well this season, but clearly this was above and beyond what I thought either. I think he’s going to start next season as a top 10 player overall.

Talk about a walk year improvement. Paul Konerko went nuts this year, and finished with 39 homers and 112 rbi. He’s a free agent, and while they want him back in Chicago, it remains to be seen where he will end up. But he’s clearly not as done as we all thought he was.

Aubrey Huff is another free agent who should get paid this offseason after an excellent performance in San Francisco. Part of his value was having 7 stolen bases this season, which seems unlikely to continue. I just can’t convince myself that he’s particularly likely to repeat the overall performance in 2011.

Injuries really had an effect on the 1B depth, with Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, Justin Morneau, and Troy Glaus all missed time during the season. It didn’t help that players like Mark Reynolds, Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena all struggled during the season.

Justin Morneau really concerns me for next season, due to the fact that he still has not been able to do any baseball activities since suffering that concussion in Toronto. He could potentially provide a very nice value for fantasy owners next year, but he won’t end up on any of my teams most likely.

Adrian Gonzalez will continue to be the topic of trade rumors throughout the offseason, and I think that if he gets traded to anywhere else practically, he’s going to provide even more offense than he did this season, which seems like it should be impossible.

Overall, some of these rankings were pretty easy (I’m pretty sure it takes no brains to rank Pujols at #1), but some of these players clearly underperformed (Fielder, Reynolds, Pena). I think that Youkilis would have finished above the #8 spot I had believed at the beginning of the season had he not gotten injured. Not a terrible job on these, but definitely some work to be done next season.

Preliminary 2011 Rankings (Very Raw)
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Joey Votto
4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Mark Teixeira
6. Ryan Howard
7. Prince Fielder
8. Kevin Youkilis
9. Paul Konerko
10. Adam Dunn

Original Draft Series: #1 – Atlanta Braves

For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #1: Atlanta Braves

General Managers(since 1994)

John Schuerholz (1994-2007): 1298-902
Frank Wren (2008-Current): 158-166

Team Performance

Playoffs			Division Finish
WC	League	Playoff App	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Last
1	3	11	11	1	3	1	0

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position	Name	Acquired	Years with Org.	Stats with Organization	Left?
C	Brian McCann	2002 – 2nd Rd	8	5 All Star Appearances, 3 Silver Sluggers 741 gm, .290/.360/.491, 111 HR, 463 RBI	Currently with Org.
1B	Adam LaRoche	2000 – 29th Rd	6+1	457 gm, .281/.346/.512, 77 HR, 253 RBI	Traded to PIT – 1/19/07
2B	Martin Prado	Int’l FA – 2001	9	1 All Star Appearance 389 gm, .309/.357/.459, 29 HR, 159 RBI, 9 SB	Currently with Org.
3B	Chipper Jones	1990 – 1st Rd (1)	20	1999 NL MVP, 2 Silver Sluggers, 6 All Star Appearances 2261 gm, .306/.405/.536, 436 HR, 1491 RBI, 147 SB	Currently with Org.
SS	Rafael Furcal	Int’l FA – 1996	9	2000 NL ROY, 1 All Star Appearance 817 gm, .284/.348/.409, 57 HR, 292 RBI, 189 SB	Left via Free Agency – 10/31/05
LF	Jeff Francoeur	2002 – 1st Rd (23)	7	1 Gold Glove 631 gm, .266/.308/.424, 78 HR, 359 RBI, 14 SB	Traded to NYM – 7/10/09
CF	Andruw Jones	Int’l FA – 1993	14	5 All Star Appearances, 1 Silver Slugger, 10 Gold Gloves 1761 gm, .263/.342/.497, 368 HR, 1117 RBI, 138 SB	Left via Free Agency – 10/31/07
RF	Jason Heyward	2007 – 1st Rd (14)	3	1 All Star Appearance 128 gm, .288/.403/.483, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 9 SB	Currently with Org.
DH	Mark DeRosa	1996 – 7th Rd	8	393 gm, .266/.318/.371, 17 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB	Non-Tendered – 12/21/04
SP	Adam Wainwright	2000 – 1st Rd (29)	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to STL – 12/13/03
SP	Kevin Millwood	1993 – 11th Rd	9	1 All Star Appearance 75-46, 3.73 ERA, 1004.1 IP, 840 K, 303 BB	Traded to PHI – 12/20/02
SP	Tommy Hanson	2005 – 22nd Rd	5	21-15, 3.32 ERA, 311.2 IP, 276 K, 97 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Kyle Davies	2001 – 4th Rd	6	14-21, 6.15 ERA, 237 IP, 172 K, 126 BB	Traded to KC – 7/31/07
SP	Kris Medlen	2006 – 10th Rd	4	9-7, 3.90 ERA, 175.1 IP, 155 K, 51 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Matt Harrison	2003 – 3rd Rd	4	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to TEX – 7/31/07
RP	Charlie Morton	2002 – 3rd Rd	6	4-8, 6.15 ERA, 74.2 IP, 48 K, 41 BB	Traded to PIT – 6/3/09
RP	Blaine Boyer	2000 – 3rd Rd	9	6-9, 5.46 ERA, 117 IP, 105 K, 47 BB	Traded to STL – 4/20/09
RP	Jonny Venters	2003	7	4-2, 1.81 ERA, 74.2 IP, 83 K, 34 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Kenshin Kawakami	Int’l FA – 2009	2	8-22, 4.32 ERA, 243.2 IP, 164 K, 89 BB	Currently with Org.
CL	Neftali Feliz	Int’l FA – 2005	2	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to TEX – 7/31/07
BN	Yunel Escobar	2005 – 2nd Rd	5	446 gm, .291/.368/.403, 29 HR, 183 RBI, 17 SB	Traded to TOR – 7/14/10
BN	Elvis Andrus	Int’l FA – 2005	2	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to TEX – 7/31/07
BN	Kelly Johnson	2000 – 1st Rd (38)	9	490 gm, .264/.346/.430, 45 HR, 206 RBI, 29 SB	Non-Tendered – 12/12/09
BN	Garrett Jones	1999 – 14th Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Released – 5/21/02
BN	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	2003 – 1st Rd (36)	4	47 gm, .284/.333/.411, 4 HR, 12 RBI	Traded to TEX – 7/31/07

June Amateur Draft

The Braves have done extremely well in identifying talent in the amateur draft, with Chipper Jones represent the glory days of the past and Jason Heyward the unfulfilled future that is to come. And in between they have had a lot of solid Major Leaguers in Brian McCann, Adam Wainwright, Kevin Millwood, Yunel Escbar, and Adam LaRoche. The key to them being my top team however is the fact that with few exceptions, they have gotten this value for the Braves themselves, and only Adam Wainwright has had extreme success with another organization.

International Free Agency

The Braves have had their fair share of international free agent signees, with Andruw Jones clearly providing the most value to the Braves themselves. Unfortunately, the trade to acquire Mark Teixeira didn’t quite work out as planned, as they gave up a starting shortstop (Andrus) and an All-Star closer (Feliz) in the trade, along with 3 other valuable players. They don’t always make the big splash it appears, but they do end up with quite a few solid players as a result of their efforts.

Overall Grade

A+. To me, the Braves are in a class by themselves for this project. There was no difficulty in filling out the roster for this organization, and many of the bench players would have been considered starters for a lot of the other teams. The on-the-field success has shown that they have known what they are doing for quite a while, and their ability to make trades (although they didn’t always work out), and retain their talent has been crucial to their success.

Team Preview – Pittsburgh Pirates

Roster Makeup
Lineup		Pitching Staff
Pos	Name	Role	Name
C	Ryan Doumit	SP 1	Zach Duke
1B	Jeff Clement	SP 2	Ross Ohlendorf
2B	Akinori Iwamura	SP 3	Paul Maholm
3B	Andy LaRoche	SP 4	Charlie Morton
SS	Ronny Cedeno	SP 5	Kevin Hart
LF	Lastings Milledge	Bullpen
CF	Andrew McCutchen	CL	Octavio Dotel
RF	Garrett Jones	RP	Evan Meek
Bench		RP	Joel Hanrahan
IF	Bobby Crosby	RP	Brendan Donnelly
OF	Ryan Church	RP	D.J. Carrasco

Additional roster information can be found at MLB Depth Charts.

Off-Season Transactions
Key Additions			Key Losses
Pos	Name	How	Pos	Name	How
RP	Octavio Dotel	Free Agency	RP	Matt Capps	Non-Tender
IF	Bobby Crosby	Free Agency	RP	Jesse Chavez	Trade (TAM)
2B	Akinori Iwamura	Trade (TAM)

Top Prospects: Pedro Alvarez (3B), Tony Sanchez (C), Jose Tabata (OF), Chase D’Arnaud (SS)

2009 Review

The Pirates finished the 2009 season with a 62-99 record, last in the NL Central division. Overall, their offense was not very good, scoring only 636 runs. There were a few bright spots though. Most notably was rookie CF Andrew McCutchen, who posted a .286 average with 12 HR and 22 SB. Second-half call up Garrett Jones stormed in, hitting .293 with 21 HR in only 82 games. The pitching staff was led by the performances of Ross Ohlendorf (11-10, 3.92 ERA) and Zach Duke (11-16, 4.06 ERA)

The main stories in Pittsburgh’s season involved players who were dealt away. They moved popular CF Nate McLouth in early June for a package of 3 players. This move was widely panned as another cost-saving measure by the ownership of the Pirates, but the players they got in return (Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke) look like they could all contribute at the Major League level soon. They also moved OF Nyjer Morgan at the end of June to the Nationals, and received back closer Joel Hanrahan and OF Lastings Milledge. They did well with this trade, getting two major league level players in return for Morgan. They also moved 1B Adam LaRoche, 2B Freddy Sanchez, SP Ian Snell, and SS Jack Wilson prior to the trade deadline. They got some solid prospects in return, with SP Tim Alderson and C/1B Jeff Clement probably being the best of them.

Team Outlook for 2010

The Pirates are full force into their rebuilding efforts. They will look for improvement from CF Andrew McCutchen in his second season, and the further development of the pitching staff as a whole. They are also hopeful that they will be able to get a full season from C Ryan Doumit and OFs Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones. Their offseason was spent finding undervalued players. Infielder Bobby Crosby will be looking to prove that he can still play at the Major League level, and should provide excellent depth on their bench, as he can play nearly all IF positions. Octavio Dotel is a high-risk, high-upside signing who could stabilize the back of the bullpen should he return to form.

The team is not built for 2010 to compete, but there is help coming in the form of Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Tim Alderson. Look for the Pirates to move some more veterans at the trade deadline this season if they feel that they can get a solid return for them.

Fantasy Outlook for 2010

There’s not a lot to like here, but OF Andrew McCutchen is probably the best of the bunch. C Ryan Doumit could bounce back and post a top-10 catcher season this year as well. Beyond that, I am not sure I’d want to own anyone else on this team in a standard mixed league. Deeper league plays would probably be Ross Ohlendorf and Garrett Jones.

Prediction for 2010

The Pirates are in full rebuilding mode. And it shows. But there are some players here who will be in Pittsburgh when the rebuilding is complete. Watch for them in 2012.

70-92, 6th in the NL Central

NL Rookie of the Year Review

Chris Coghlan was announced as the winner of the National League Rookie of the Year award for 2009 yesterday.

In my predictions, I noted that I thought Andrew McCutchen would win, but that it wouldn’t surprise me if Coghlan won instead. The voting for this award was much more spread out than its AL counterpart:

Votes (first place)

Coghlan – 105 (17)
J.A. Happ – 94 (10)
Tommy Hanson – 37 (2)
Andrew McCutchen – 25 (2)
Casey McGehee – 18 (1)
Randy Wells – 3
Garrett Jones – 2
Everth Cabrera, Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, Colby Rasmus – 1 each

Chris Coghlan
Coghlan joined the Marlins on May 8th, and from there just hit and hit and hit. In 128 games, he hit .321/.390/.460, with 9 homers, 8 steals, and 84 runs scored. This while also learning a new position (LF) that he had never played before. While there were definite growing pains associated with learning this new position, Coghlan’s bat more than made up for it. He should only get better as he matures.

J.A. Happ
Happ really made a huge impact this season, making the roster in the bullpen out of spring training, and when injuries hit transitioning into a starting role. He finished the year with a 12-4 record, a 2.93 era, 3 complete games (2 shutouts), and a 1.24 whip. I doubt highly that the Phillies would have made the postseason if not for the contributions of Happ. Apparently I had completely forgotten about him when making my predictions, because he would definitely have been ahead of McCutchen had I remembered.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson did not make his debut until June 7th, but it was definitely worth the wait. He finished the season with an 11-4 record, a 2.89 era, a 1.18 whip, and 116 strikeouts in 127 2/3 innings. Hanson is the next great Braves starter, and I am really looking forward to what he can do in a full season. A player that I discounted somewhat because of not being up for the full season, but probably should have included as well.

Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen did not debut until early June either, but went on a tear once he was there. He finished with a .286/.365/.471 line with 12 homers, 54 rbi, 22 steals, and 74 runs. While the trade of Nate McLouth was extremely unpopular with Pirate fans, it allowed them to really showcase McCutchen, who didn’t disappoint. I think that he would have won this award hands down if he had been up for the full season. He’s going to be really interesting to watch, and hope that the Pirates can keep him long term.

Casey McGehee
McGehee was actually put on waivers at the end of last season by the Cubs, and they are going to regret letting him go. The Brewers used him as a sort of super-utility, trying to get his bat in the lineup while trying him at multiple positions. He played 2B, 3B, and even 1B for them last season, while hitting the cover off the ball to the tune of .301/.360/.499 with 16 homers and 66 rbi. Hopefully next season the Brewers will pick one position to let him play, and leave him there. But that could prove interesting with the return of Rickie Weeks, and the promotion of top prospect Mat Gamel.

Randy Wells
Wells did well this season, and really helped to solidify the Cubs rotation. He compiled a 12-10 record, with a 3.05 era, 1.28 whip, and 104 strikeouts in 165 1/3 innings. Originally drafted as a rule 5 player by the Blue Jays, he was returned to the Cubs during the 2008 season. While the season for the Cubs was lost, Wells was a bright spot on an otherwise poor starting rotation.

Garrett Jones
Jones was never really considered a top flight prospect, especially since he was 27 when he was called up for his first real length of time in the majors. But he hit. .293/.372/.567 with 21 homers in just 82 games. While it remains to be seen what he can do with a full season, he should be very interesting to watch, especially since he is likely to get consistent playing time in 2010.

Overall, another group where not every top prospect made an impact. At the beginning of the season, Rasmus, Hanson, Fowler, and Cameron Maybin were all mentioned as top candidates, and only Hanson really had a showing worthy of the award.