Season Preview: NL East

Onto the National League, starting with the East division. You can also take a look at my previews of the AL East, AL Central and AL West.

Last Year’s Records
Philadelphia – 97-65
Atlanta – 91-71
Florida – 80-82
New York – 79-83
Washington – 69-93

Notable Additions

Atlanta – Dan Uggla

Florida – Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Javier Vazquez, John Buck

New York – Brad Emaus, Ronny Paulino

Philadelphia – Cliff Lee

Washington – Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche, Tom Gorzelanny

Notable Losses

Atlanta – Omar Infante, Mike Dunn, Derrek Lee, Melky Cabrera, Takashi Saito

Florida – Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, Ronny Paulino

New York – John Maine, Hisanori Takahashi, Pedro Feliciano

Philadelphia – Jayson Werth

Washington – Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn

My Thoughts

Atlanta – This is a playoff team from last year that has upgraded itself at 2B (Uggla), and will look for growth from Jason Heyward in his second season. The team will plug in Freddie Freeman to start at 1B, and hope that he can have even a partially similar season to Heyward’s rookie year. The pitching remains solid, behind Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, and Jair Jurrjens. The biggest role that seems to be up in the air coming into Spring Training is the closer, with Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters competing for the job.

Florida – As they prepare to move into their new stadium in 2012, this is a young team who should continue to be exciting for the next few seasons. It appears that 3B Matt Dominguez is likely to be the starter this year, despite not playing a single day in the Majors yet. However, the loss of Dan Uggla‘s bat in their lineup could cause a major hole in terms of power and run production. They’re also hoping that Javier Vazquez will rebound with a return to the NL East, and also provide some more veteran leadership with Josh Johnson in the starting rotation. I’m not sold that they stand a great chance of winning the division, but they could surprise some people in a tough division.

New York – With new GM Sandy Alderson on board, 2011 is going to be a partial rebuilding season. They did not make any substantial changes to their roster, and will look to get bounceback seasons from players like Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes instead. Ace Johan Santana is expected to be out until midseason, and the team is going to be looking for nice performances from Chris Young and Chris Capuano.

Philadelphia – The Phillies went out and made what was probably the biggest surprise move of the offseason, inking Cliff Lee to a 5 year, $120 million contract. With their four aces in the starting rotation, they definitely look like the team to beat in the NL East. However, the injuries are already starting to pile up, as Chase Utley has yet to play in Spring Training, and potential right fielder Domonic Brown will miss 3-6 weeks after having hand surgery. If this team can stay healthy, I don’t think there’s a team in the NL that can compete with them. But that is a gigantic if.

Washington – The Nationals made one of the biggest splashes in the free agent market, and it was completely unexpected. Jayson Werth signed a 7 year contract with the team, and will play right field for the first few years of the contract. The team is still not ready to compete, but they will look for continued growth from Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa. Jordan Zimmermann will also look to have an injury free campaign, and while they will miss Stephen Strasburg this season, he should be back in 2012 from his injuries.

Overall Thoughts

The NL East really comes down to the two teams at the top of the pile. The Braves and Phillies really seem like they will be the only teams that are likely to win the division or the Wild Card. The Mets and Nationals just simply aren’t ready, and I don’t believe that the Marlins are ready to compete quite yet either.  Here’s my predicted order of finish:

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Florida
4. Washington
5. New York

Prospect Reviews: Season in Review Part 2

Back in January and February, I reviewed 30 minor league prospects, and made some predictions. With the season over at the Minor League level and nearly over at the Major League level, I figured now was a great time to look back at how I did. I posted my thoughts on the first 10 prospects yesterday, and will continue with 10 more today.

Christian Friedrich (COL)

In January, I predicted that Friedrich would start the season in AA for the Rockies, and post the following line: 9 – 5, 2.75 era, 165 innings pitched, 190 strikeouts, 55 walks. His actual line: 3-6, 5.05 era, 87 1/3 innings pitched, 78 strikeouts, 35 walks. Friedrich missed a fair amount of time during the season due to injury, which clearly nobody loves. He did average nearly a strikeout per inning, but clearly this wasn’t quite the performance the Rockies were looking for. I think that honestly he will return next season to AA to start the season.

Desmond Jennings (TAM)

Tampa Bay is notorious for taking it extremely slow with their prospects, and Jennings is no exception. He was not called up until right around September 1st, and clearly much later than the All Star break like I had thought. My prediction: .285/.365/.450, 5 homeruns, 35 rbi, 35 stolen bases (Majors – 3 months). He hit .278/.362/.393 with 3 homeruns, 36 rbi, 37 stolen bases in 109 games in the minors. He’s extremely likely to be the starting left fielder or right fielder to begin next season in Tampa, and should be a decent fantasy outfielder.

Jason Heyward (ATL)

What else is there to say about Heyward at this point? He’s going to be at worst top-2 in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, and hit .285/.400/.472 with 18 homeruns, 71 runs batted in, and 10 stolen bases in 133 games. I thought he would not make the team out of Spring Training, and was nearly right on with some of the numbers anyway: .285/.370/.470, 6 homeruns, 10 stolen bases in 80 games was my prediction. Heyward is going to be one of the best outfielders for years to come.

Starlin Castro (CHC)

Back in January, I figured he might get a call up to AAA after spending a majority of the year at AA. Oops, guess I didn’t know exactly what the Cubs would do. They called up their top prospect in May, and he definitely disappoint. In 116 games, he hit .304/.350/417 with 50 runs scored, 3 home runs, 41 runs batted in, and 9 stolen bases. The power and fielding seem really likely to improve, and even the speed has gotten better over the length of the season.

Aaron Hicks (MIN)

Hicks came into the season as the top prospect for the Twins, and he really hasn’t done a lot to keep that ranking for next season. He posted a decent line (.279/.401/.428) with 27 doubles, 8 homeruns, 49 runs batted in, and 21 stolen bases. My prediction was pretty close (.280/.360/.430, 25 doubles, 8 homeruns, 25 stolen bases), but I thought he could do that at High-A. Instead, he repeated Low-A again this season, and it concerns me that they felt no need to promote him even at the end of the season.

A.J. Pollock (ARI)

Pollock had a completely lost season, as he missed the whole season with an injury. I think that once he’s back to playing next year, the predictions I made then could very well be similar.

Martin Perez (TEX)

It was a bit of a lost season for Perez as well, but I have to remind myself he is still just 20 years old. At AA, I thought that he would post the following line: 7-7, 3.30 ERA, 140 IP, 130 strikeouts, 45 walks. His actual line: 5-8, 5.96 ERA, 99 2/3 IP, 101 strikeouts, 50 walks. His FIP (4.24) indicated he pitched slightly better, but he definitely took a step back from the previous season. I think he’s very likely to start 2011 back at AA, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he still was promoted to AAA.

Brian Matusz (BAL)

With Matusz, I clearly underestimated how bad the Orioles’ offense would be this year. My prediction in January had Brian posting this line:  12-8, 3.75 ERA, 175 IP, 160 strikeouts, 45 walks. His actual through late last week: 8-12, 4.59 ERA, 162 2/3 IP, 126 strikeouts, 59 walks. I was a bit optimistic on his strikeout rate, and his walks as well. But I’ll be really interested to see what he does next year with the improvement the team has shown since hiring Buck Showalter.

Domonic Brown (PHI)

I thought Brown would not be above AA this year, and would have a great line: .290/.375/.500, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 stolen bases. He got a call up to AAA after 65 games, and ended up with a midseason callup as well due to some injuries in the Phillies outfield. He hasn’t really gotten a lot of consistent playing time, but he’s going to be a solid outfielder for the Phillies in 2011.

Daniel Hudson (CHW/ARI)

I really think that the White Sox blew this one. Hudson has been nothing short of amazing since being slotted into the Diamondbacks rotation, and has been much better than my original prediction: 5-5, 3.85 ERA, 110 IP, 95 strikeouts, 28 walks. His actual line: 7-2, 2.49 ERA, 86.2 IP, 79 strikeouts, 25 walks. Hudson really looks like he will be a solid #2/#3 starter going forward, with the potential to be a #1 starter if everything falls right.

Original Draft Series: #11 – Philadelphia Phillies

For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #12: Philadelphia Phillies

General Managers(since 1994)

Lee Thomas (1994-1997): 258-325
Ed Wade (1998-2005): 643-652
Pat Gillick (2006-2008): 266-220
Ruben Amaro Jr (2009-Current): 93-69

Team Performance

Playoffs			Division Finish
WC	League	Playoff App	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Last
1	2	3	3	4	5	1	3

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position	Name	Acquired	Years with Org.	Stats with Organization	Left?
C	Carlos Ruiz	Int’l FA – 1998	12	440 gm, .256/.347/.390, 27 HR, 165 RBI, 10 SB	Currently with Org.
1B	Ryan Howard	2001 – 5th Rd	9	2005 NL ROY, 2006 NL MVP, 3 All-Star Appearances, 1 Silver Slugger 836 gm, .281/.373/.578, 245 HR, 721 RBI	Currently with Org.
2B	Chase Utley	2000 – 1st Rd (15)	10	5 All Star Appearances, 4 Silver Sluggers 963 gm, .294/.380/.518, 172 HR, 622 RBI, 88 SB	Currently with Org.
3B	Scott Rolen	1993 – 2nd Rd	9	1997 NL ROY, 1 All Star Appearance, 3 Gold Gloves 844 gm, .282/.373/.504, 150 HR, 559 RBI, 71 SB	Traded to STL – 7/29/02
SS	Jimmy Rollins	1996 – 2nd Rd	14	2007 NL MVP, 3 All Star Appearances, 3 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger 1456 gm, .273/.329/.437, 150 HR, 646 RBI, 335 SB	Currently with Org.
LF	Pat Burrell	1998 – 1st Rd (1)	10	1306 gm, .257/.367/.485, 251 HR, 827 RBI	Left via Free Agency – 11/6/08
CF	Michael Bourn	2003 – 4th Rd	4	122 gm, .268/.340/.362, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 19 SB	Traded to HOU – 11/7/07
RF	Marlon Byrd	1999 – 10th Rd	6	256 gm, .271/.332/.377, 13 HR, 79 RBI, 13 SB	Traded to WAS – 5/14/05
DH	Domonic Brown	2006 – 20th Rd	4	7 gm, .259/.241/.296, 6 RBI, 1 SB	Currently with Org.
SP	Cole Hamels	2002 – 1st Rd (17)	8	1 All Star Appearance 55-41, 3.65 ERA, 824 K, 233 BB, 875.2 IP	Currently with Org.
SP	Randy Wolf	1997 – 2nd Rd	9	1 All Star Appearance 69-60, 4.21 ERA, 971 K, 437 BB, 1175 IP	Left via Free Agency – 11/1/06
SP	J.A. Happ	2004 – 3rd Rd	6	14-5, 3.11 ERA, 159 K, 84 BB, 217 IP	Traded to HOU – 7/29/10
SP	Brett Myers	1999 – 1st Rd (12)	10	73-63, 4.40 ERA, 21 SV, 986 K, 413 BB, 1183.2 IP	Left via Free Agency – 11/6/09
SP	Gavin Floyd	2001 – 1st Rd (4)	5	7-5, 6.96 ERA, 75 K, 64 BB, 108.2 IP	Traded to CHW – 12/6/06
RP	Robinson Tejeda	Int’l FA – 1998	7	4-3, 3.57 ERA, 72 K, 51 BB, 85.2 IP	Traded to TEX – 4/1/06
RP	Alfredo Simon	Int’l FA – 1999	5	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to SF – 7/30/04
RP	Kyle Kendrick	2003 – 7th Rd	7	31-18, 4.58 ERA, 196 K, 125 BB, 430.2 IP	Currently with Org.
RP	Ryan Madson	1998 – 9th Rd	12	41-27, 3.86 ERA, 19 SV, 449 K, 167 BB, 539 IP	Currently with Org.
RP	Taylor Buchholz	2000 – 6th Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to HOU – 11/3/03
CL	Brad Ziegler	2003 – 20th Rd	1	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Released – 3/28/04
BN	Carlos Silva	Int’l FA – 1996	7	8-1, 3.83 ERA, 89 K, 59 BB, 171.1 IP	Traded to MIN- 12/3/03
BN	Jason Donald	2006 – 3rd Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to CLE – 7/29/09
BN	Lou Marson	2004 – 4th Rd	5	8 gm, .286/.375/.476, 1 HR, 2 RBI	Traded to CLE – 7/29/09
BN	Nick Punto	1998 – 21st Rd	5	77 gm, .223/.273/.272, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB	Traded to Min – 12/3/03
BN	Jason Michaels	1998 – 4th Rd	7	383 gm, .291/.380/.442, 21 HR, 100 RBI, 6 SB	Traded to CLE – 1/27/06

June Amateur Draft

Well, they’ve done very well in the first few rounds of the draft. Clearly, adding players like Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Brett Myers in the first round is going to help. But the team has done well in the next 3 rounds as well, getting Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Scott Rolen, and Randy Wolf. This is one of the first teams that I can remember where I was able to put a solid major league regular into nearly every spot in the lineup and into the starting rotation, and it’s almost entirely from the draft. But they’ve also done well in later rounds, with Domonic Brown being the highest potential of anyone they’ve drafted after the 10th round so far. Even the players that they drafted that have not done a whole lot (Jason Donald, Lou Marson) were both used to acquire Cliff Lee in 2009.

International Free Agency

They have not been as active in international free agency as some teams, but with the success they’ve had in the draft, it’s not as glaring as a problem. The team has only had two success stories from the IFA markets in Carlos Silva and Carlos Ruiz. While it’s not a lot, there’s a lot of hope for Ruiz yet.

Overall Grade

B+. With 2 home grown MVPs, and quite a few players who would be welcome on any team in Chase Utley, Scott Rolen, and Cole Hamels, the team has done extremely well at not only scouting these players, but developing them and getting production for their own team out of them as well. The only weakness is the bullpen, but I’ve kind of come to the conclusion that the bullpen is something that any team can fill in with a little diligence. The fact that they have solid regulars at every lineup position, and 5 excellent starting pitchers leads me to give them this good grade.

Prospect Reviews: Midseason Review – Majors and AAA

As we approach the Major League All-Star break, I’ve seen quite a few of the prospects I reviewed back in January who have already made an impact in the show.

Note: Each of these players are listed under the level that they are currently at, but will include their stats at all levels. All statistics are through Saturday’s games, and courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Majors

Carlos Santana (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AAA	57	.316	.447	.597	39	13	51	6
Majors	20	.313	.438	.641	11	4	15	0

Carlos was called up on June 11th, and has continued to hit at a torrid pace ever since. I wrote back in mid-May that I thought he would be called up sometime after the expected Super-Two deadline, and that is pretty much exactly what happened. Over at FakeTeams, I ranked Santana as my 5th best catcher for the remainder of the season, and I think that’s probably pretty accurate. He’s going to continue to hit for an excellent average, and the power looks legitimate, even if there is some minor regression. At the end of last season, I owned the rights to both Carlos Santana and Buster Posey in my 14-team keeper league. During our minor league draft, I traded Posey for Ryan Westmoreland and a draft pick towards the end of the draft. That pick? Used to take Michael Pineda.

Mike Stanton (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AA	53	.313	.442	.729	42	21	52	1
Majors	20	.218	.271	.333	10	2	13	3

Stanton was called up on June 8th, in a much quieter debut than the other major rookie on that date, Stephen Strasburg. Stanton hasn’t quite shown the power in the Majors that he did in his minor league career to this point, but that was probably asking a bit much of the rookie. The 3 stolen bases to this point seem a bit out of place, as he only had 8 total in his 4 minor league seasons, but that could just be a fluke. I think that realistically he’s going to continue to experience some growing pains, and until the strikeouts get a bit more under control (33 so far in only 78 at bats), he’s going to continue to struggle.

Buster Posey (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AAA	47	.349	.442	.552	3	6	32	1
Majors	29	.308	.330	.423	12	2	11	0

Posey was called up on May 29th, but strangely it was to play 1B for the most part. The Giants’ main concern was to get the top prospect’s bat into the lineup, and not worry too much about having him catch immediately. He has been playing nearly every day, but has only just now started to catch every day with the trade of former starting catcher Bengie Molina to the Giants. I will be interested to see how he continues to hit now that he will be catching every day, and it will be interesting to see if there is any impact on the pitching staff. Posey has been widely touted for his ability to work with a pitching staff, but until it actually happens there is always the chance of something going wrong.

Jason Heyward (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
Majors	71	.251	.366	.455	41	11	45	5

Heyward is currently on the disabled list for the Braves, after a thumb injury that occurred late in May apparently, but did not sideline him until late June. This is probably at least a part of the explanation as to why Heyward struggled so much in the month of June.  He was the prohibitive favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award after the month of May, but if he is out for an extended period of time, this race could pretty easily get away from him with as many good rookies as there are this season.

Starlin Castro (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AA	26	.376	.421	.569	20	1	20	4
Majors	50	.269	.332	.365	17	2	18	1

Castro has been a bit of an enigma to this point in his Major League career. It was a big surprise that he was called up when he was, but it was thought he would be able to adapt pretty easily despite being only 20 years old. His average has been solid, but not amazing. But his power seems to have disappeared entirely, and his speed is not far behind it. The part that really concerns me about Castro is the fact that in 50 games, he already has 11 errors. Granted, you can’t get errors on balls you don’t make a play on, so this partially could be the reason he has so many. It seems unlikely to me at this point that the Cubs would send him down to improve, as the Cubs are going nowhere this season.

Brian Matusz (Writeup)

Level	G	W	L	SV	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
Majors	16	2	9	0	4.90	93.2	70	1.441

Matusz, it was hoped, would help to lead this team’s pitching staff this season along with veteran Kevin Millwood. Unfortunately, the Orioles’ offense and defense forgot to help with that. Matusz has a league worst 9 losses this season, but there are signs of hope. He has a strikeout rate of 6.83 per 9 innings, and his FIP is lower than his ERA (4.25 vs. 4.90), so there does appear to be hope for Matusz. Until this team starts hitting like they mean it, it’s probably going to be some tough-luck losses in the future for Brian Matusz.

AAA

Desmond Jennings (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AAA	59	.298	.374	.428	45	1	21	20

Jennings has missed some time this season due to an injury, and it appears that the Rays are extremely unlikely to call him up this season. The Rays have done well with their starting outfield of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Ben Zobrist, and have had both Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez fill in as necessary. Jennings still looks like an elite prospect, and seems like to be up at the start of the 2011 season, as Crawford is still a free agent at the end of the season and seems unlikely to be resigned due to money concerns. I still think Jennings is an elite prospect, although I am wondering how long until the power comes.

Jesus Montero (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AAA	74	.248	.319	.410	30	6	33	0

Back in January, I wrote that I thought the best thing for the Yankees to do with Montero would be to continue to leave him in the minors and allow him to develop as a catcher, so that they could use him as the long-term replacement to Jorge Posada following Posada’s eventual retirement. At this point, I would say that they need to figure out a different position for him long term. Montero is probably not ever going to be an elite caliber catcher, and with the Yankees having 3 excellent catching prospect also in the minors (Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, J.R. Murphy) in addition to Montero, they can probably work on letting him hit and just assume he is likely to end up either in the outfield or as a DH.

Domonic Brown (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AA	65	.318	.391	.602	50	15	47	12
AAA	11	.395	.415	.711	6	3	10	1

Brown is a player who is vaulting himself to the top of prospect rankings with his amazing performance down at AA. Clearly, if he can continue a majority of the pace he is on so far, he looks like he will be a perennial 30-30 threat with a high batting average. There have been rumors that the Phillies may try to move Jayson Werth to help improve other areas of the team and insert Brown into the everyday RF job, but that seems a bit rushed. I would like to see the Phillies leave Brown down at AAA for the rest of the season, and give him the opportunity to win the RF job out of Spring Training in 2011.

Dan Hudson (Writeup)

Level	G	W	L	SV	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
AAA	16	11	3	0	3.57	88.1	102	1.211

Hudson has done everything that the White Sox had hoped and more, but unfortunately no one in the starting rotation is really pitching all that badly. The White Sox are correct to leave him down there starting if that is what they hope to use him for long-term, and at some point he is likely to get a shot. It would help if the Sox would fall out of the race, but Hudson could potentially be moved for a short-term piece if they think they still have a chance to win it all this season. I’m not sure where that would come from, but stranger things have happened.

Chris Carter (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AAA	81	.242	.346	.497	55	17	58	0

Carter has been a bit of an enigma so far at AAA. The power is still there, although not to the same extent has it had been in AA. The batting average is clearly not where he was in AA, but with the amount of strikeouts that he normally racks up, this isn’t that much of a surprise. The concerning part to me is two fold – He hasn’t even attempted a stolen base this season after trying 19 times with 13 successes. Also, the strikeout rate has gotten worse, as he already has 94 strikeouts in only 81 games. The A’s don’t have a place to play him right now at the Major League level, and realistically, he’s not shown that he’s ready for it either. If the A’s were in the heat of the pennant race, they might have brought him up to provide some pop to the lineup, but since they aren’t, I don’t think he sees Oakland this season except when he passes it in his car.

Yonder Alonso (Writeup)

Level	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
AA	31	.267	.388	.406	19	3	13	4
AAA	51	.246	.283	.365	17	4	28	3

Alonso has become the subject of some trade rumors for the Reds, as he realistically should be a first baseman at the Major League level. Unfortunately, that position is manned by a potential MVP candidate in Joey Votto, and looks like it will be for quite some time. The Reds have been trying him in the outfield, but it appears that may be at least somewhat affecting his ability to hit at AAA, as he has struggled so far.

Michael Pineda (Writeup)

Level	G	W	L	SV	ERA	IP	K	WHIP
AA	13	8	1	0	2.22	77	78	1.091
AAA	3	2	0	0	2.37	19	26	0.842

Pineda came into the season as a bit of an unknown, but is now rocketing up the prospect rankings for a lot of the experts as he continues his excellent performance from last season. He’s earned a promotion to AAA recently, and the poor performance overall by the Mariners makes me wonder if he may see a September call-up. The strikeout numbers have been dominant, with over 1 per inning so far at both levels. This one is really making me look pretty good so far in my keeper league.

Tomorrow, the rest of the prospects down at AA and below.

How Are They Doing So Far? Part 2

Today, I’ll continue looking at the prospects I reviewed during the offseason, and how they are progressing to this point. All statistics are through Monday’s games.

AA

Mike Stanton (FLA): 28 games, .340/.481/.854, 15 HR, 33 RBI, 28 R, 1 SB, 28 walks, 32 strikeouts

Stanton has torn up AA, and is currently leading the minor leagues in homeruns. There has been talk that with some of the outfielders in the Majors struggling, that Stanton will be called up as soon as the Super-2 date passes. Clearly, he has nothing else to prove at AA even at this point. I wrote in January that I thought he wouldn’t be up until mid-2011, but with ownership expecting this team to compete, Stanton is probably going to be up very soon. And he’ll be some fun to see when that happens.

Michael Pineda (SEA): 6 starts, 32 1/3 IP, 2-0, 2.23 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 40 strikeouts, 9 walks

I reviewed Pineda mostly because I thought that he was interesting, as he put up very good statistics for a pitcher in the extremely hitter-friendly California League. Now in the Southern League, those numbers appear to not be a fluke. I wrote that I thought he would be up late in 2011 or to start 2012 most likely, and I think that’s probably still right. The Mariners have a lot of reasonably good pitching between Pineda and the Majors, and they can wait to allow him to develop. Remember he’s only 21 years old this season.

Christian Friedrich (COL): 3 starts, 16 IP, 0-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.188 WHIP, 16 strikeouts, 4 walks

Friedrich picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, and is striking out a batter per inning with excellent control. Of concern is the fact that he has missed time this season, having a stint on the 7-day DL with left elbow soreness. Since he throws left handed, this could be of real concern long-term. His last start was on April 19th, almost a month ago now.

Martin Perez (TEX): 6 starts, 25 2/3 IP, 1-0, 2.45 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 29 strikeouts, 15 walks

The strikeouts remain excellent, but the spike in walks is a bit worrisome to me. I think he should be able to improve on that and return to the form he has shown at previous stops. The Rangers appear committed to him being a part of their starting rotation long term, which bodes well for them. I thought back in January he wouldn’t be up until late 2011 at the soonest, and I think that’s probably still his timetable.

Domonic Brown (PHI): 25 games, .333/.388/.632, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 17 R, 3 SB, 9 walks, 20 strikeouts

Widely assumed to be the replacement should Jayson Werth leave via free agency after this season, Brown has hit very well so far at AA. He spent part of last season at AA, so I could see him getting a promotion to AAA by around the All-Star break. A very solid prospect, and most of his numbers are within range of his career norms to this point.

Kyle Drabek (TOR): 7 starts, 40 IP, 4-3, 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 41 strikeouts, 21 walks

Drabek has pitched fairly well to this point, but the walks are a concern. He had previously been posting strikeout-to-walk rates of around 3, but is just under 2 so far this season. The Blue Jays will give him lots of time to develop, as they have an excessive amount of pitching at the Major League level, to the point of having starters who can’t seem to break into the rotation. I think he will probably more likely be up with the team in 2012 than 2011 at this point.

Brett Lawrie (MIL): 31 games, .256/.329/.416, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 19 R, 6 SB, 13 walks, 42 strikeouts

I have been a bit surprised by the performance of Lawrie. The speed appears to be legitimate, and I think that he could end up being a 20-20 2B in the Majors someday. The plate discipline remains a bit of a challenge, but if he can improve that somewhat I could see him getting a late-season promotion to AAA. Realistically, they should leave him in AA until he shows some of that in my opinion.

Chris Withrow (LAD): 6 starts, 27 2/3 IP, 1-2, 7.48 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 24 strikeouts, 15 walks

Withrow has not been particularly good to this point, and the control really seems to be showing as a huge problem. He’s never been a particularly accurate pitcher, generally posting strikeout-to-walk rates of around 2. He’s going to need to improve on that before being considered for a promotion. I would have to think that he is going to spend the entire 2010 season at AA, and if doesn’t show improvement in his control could possibly start 2011 there as well.

Casey Kelly (BOS): 6 starts, 20 2/3 IP, 0-2, 3.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 21 strikeouts, 7 walks

Kelly seems to be taking to the change to pitching only, striking out a batter per inning. I think that the Red Sox leave him down at AA all season, letting him further refine his excellent skill set. I wrote that I thought he wouldn’t be up until 2012 midseason, and unless there becomes a need in the rotation, I think that will remain true. They have all 5 starters under team control until at least then: Lackey (2014), Beckett (2014), Matsuzaka (2012), Lester(2013), and Buchholz (2014) all under contract or control until then.

Yonder Alonso (CIN): 29 games, .271/.397/.417, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 19 R, 4 SB, 19 walks, 16 strikeouts

Alonso has been splitting his time between 1B and LF for the Reds AA team, and I have to imagine that at a certain point he’ll stop playing 1B entirely. The Reds have Joey Votto holding down that position in the Majors, and unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon. He’s hit well to this point, and I think he may end up getting promoted to AAA at some point during the season. The Reds have shown that they are not averse to promoting someone to the Majors if they think they are ready to contribute (Mike Leake), so when Alonso is ready, the Reds will move him up.

Prospect Review – Domonic Brown – OF – PHI

Baseball Reference.Com Profile
Fangraphs Profile

The Basics
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
How Acquired: Drafted in the 20th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft by the Philles
Age: 22

Statistics

2009 – Gulf Coast Phillies (GCL Rookie League – Rehab Assignment) – 3 games

• .500/.583/.900
• 2 triples
• 1 walk, 1 strikeout

2009 – Clearwater (Florida State League – Phillies High A) – 66 games

• .303/.386/.517
• 11 HR, 44 RBI, 15 stolen bases
• 34 walks, 48 strikeouts

2009 – Reading (Eastern League – Phillies AA) – 37 games

• .279/.346/.456
• 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 stolen bases
• 14 walks, 37 strikeouts

2009 Totals (3 levels, 106 games)

• .299/.377/.504
• 14 HR, 64 RBI, 21 stolen bases
• 49 walks, 86 strikeouts

Rankings
Baseball America – #1 (PHI – 2010)
Baseball Prospectus – #7 (PHI – 2009) – 3 star
John Sickels – #1 (PHI – 2010) – B+

Analysis

Brown started his 2009 season in Clearwater (High-A) and really hit up a storm. He posted a .303/.386/.517 line with 11 homeruns, 44 RBI and 15 stolen bases. He spent 3 games down with the Phillies’ Gulf Coast League team, rehabbing from a broken finger he suffered in early June. He missed the better portion of a month with the injury, but came back strong, posting a .333/.435/.456 line in July after the injury. Shortly thereafter, he was promoted to AA Reading, where he started on a tear (.301/.356/.513 in August).

Brown projects as a 5-tool outfielder, having good speed, good plate discipline, and should develop some more power as he matures. I wanted to take a little more in-depth look at his stats, as they appear to be pretty solid, but not stunningly amazing. He’s a left-handed hitter, so how do his LH/RH splits look?

For the 2009 season:

vs LHP (128 AB): .313/.386/.547, 5 HR, 15 walks, 22 strikeouts
vs RHP (271 AB): .292/.371/.468, 8 HR, 34 walks, 66 strikeouts

If Brown were holding true to the generally accepted ideas, he would have hit much worse against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones. However, he hit for a better average, better power, and had better plate discipline against lefties during the season. And while he did hit better against lefties than righties, it wasn’t like he really struggled against righties either. These numbers bode well for him to have continued success as he progresses through the minors.

Outlook

Brown missed some developmental time last season with that finger injury, and should start next season back at AA Reading. Hopefully, the Phillies will not try to rush him through to AAA, as he could really use a majority of the season refining his game. Thankfully, the Phillies have 3 excellent outfielders that are under contract through 2010, and only Jayson Werth is not under contract for 2011. He looks like is going to be a very good outfielder and hitter when he gets to the Majors, and should give them a potential 20/20 hitter every season.

Projection for 2010

.290/.375/.500, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 25 stolen bases (AA)

Expected ETA

If they are patient, Brown should make the Majors some time during the 2011 season. If Jayson Werth leaves via free agency after the 2010 season, though, we may see Brown in Philadelphia at the beginning of the 2011 season.

Tomorrow’s Prospect for Review: Dan Hudson (P) of the Chicago White Sox