Fantasy Rankings in Review: Third Basemen

Back in February, I took my first shot at attempting to rank players for fantasy purposes. After a full season, I thought it wise to take a look back at how they went, and compare them to how it actually turned out and see if there is anything to be gained from it. Next up is the review of my 3B rankings.

My Preseason Rankings

1.     Alex Rodriguez
2.     David Wright
3.     Evan Longoria
4.     Mark Reynolds
5.     Ryan Zimmerman
6.     Kevin Youkilis
7.     Aramis Ramirez
8.     Chone Figgins
9.     Pablo Sandoval
10.  Michael Young
11.  Gordon Beckham
12.  Ian Stewart
13.  Jorge Cantu
14.  Casey Blake
15.  Chipper Jones

Original Draft Series: #11 – Philadelphia Phillies

For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #12: Philadelphia Phillies

General Managers(since 1994)

Lee Thomas (1994-1997): 258-325
Ed Wade (1998-2005): 643-652
Pat Gillick (2006-2008): 266-220
Ruben Amaro Jr (2009-Current): 93-69

Team Performance

Playoffs			Division Finish
WC	League	Playoff App	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Last
1	2	3	3	4	5	1	3

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position	Name	Acquired	Years with Org.	Stats with Organization	Left?
C	Carlos Ruiz	Int’l FA – 1998	12	440 gm, .256/.347/.390, 27 HR, 165 RBI, 10 SB	Currently with Org.
1B	Ryan Howard	2001 – 5th Rd	9	2005 NL ROY, 2006 NL MVP, 3 All-Star Appearances, 1 Silver Slugger 836 gm, .281/.373/.578, 245 HR, 721 RBI	Currently with Org.
2B	Chase Utley	2000 – 1st Rd (15)	10	5 All Star Appearances, 4 Silver Sluggers 963 gm, .294/.380/.518, 172 HR, 622 RBI, 88 SB	Currently with Org.
3B	Scott Rolen	1993 – 2nd Rd	9	1997 NL ROY, 1 All Star Appearance, 3 Gold Gloves 844 gm, .282/.373/.504, 150 HR, 559 RBI, 71 SB	Traded to STL – 7/29/02
SS	Jimmy Rollins	1996 – 2nd Rd	14	2007 NL MVP, 3 All Star Appearances, 3 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger 1456 gm, .273/.329/.437, 150 HR, 646 RBI, 335 SB	Currently with Org.
LF	Pat Burrell	1998 – 1st Rd (1)	10	1306 gm, .257/.367/.485, 251 HR, 827 RBI	Left via Free Agency – 11/6/08
CF	Michael Bourn	2003 – 4th Rd	4	122 gm, .268/.340/.362, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 19 SB	Traded to HOU – 11/7/07
RF	Marlon Byrd	1999 – 10th Rd	6	256 gm, .271/.332/.377, 13 HR, 79 RBI, 13 SB	Traded to WAS – 5/14/05
DH	Domonic Brown	2006 – 20th Rd	4	7 gm, .259/.241/.296, 6 RBI, 1 SB	Currently with Org.
SP	Cole Hamels	2002 – 1st Rd (17)	8	1 All Star Appearance 55-41, 3.65 ERA, 824 K, 233 BB, 875.2 IP	Currently with Org.
SP	Randy Wolf	1997 – 2nd Rd	9	1 All Star Appearance 69-60, 4.21 ERA, 971 K, 437 BB, 1175 IP	Left via Free Agency – 11/1/06
SP	J.A. Happ	2004 – 3rd Rd	6	14-5, 3.11 ERA, 159 K, 84 BB, 217 IP	Traded to HOU – 7/29/10
SP	Brett Myers	1999 – 1st Rd (12)	10	73-63, 4.40 ERA, 21 SV, 986 K, 413 BB, 1183.2 IP	Left via Free Agency – 11/6/09
SP	Gavin Floyd	2001 – 1st Rd (4)	5	7-5, 6.96 ERA, 75 K, 64 BB, 108.2 IP	Traded to CHW – 12/6/06
RP	Robinson Tejeda	Int’l FA – 1998	7	4-3, 3.57 ERA, 72 K, 51 BB, 85.2 IP	Traded to TEX – 4/1/06
RP	Alfredo Simon	Int’l FA – 1999	5	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to SF – 7/30/04
RP	Kyle Kendrick	2003 – 7th Rd	7	31-18, 4.58 ERA, 196 K, 125 BB, 430.2 IP	Currently with Org.
RP	Ryan Madson	1998 – 9th Rd	12	41-27, 3.86 ERA, 19 SV, 449 K, 167 BB, 539 IP	Currently with Org.
RP	Taylor Buchholz	2000 – 6th Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to HOU – 11/3/03
CL	Brad Ziegler	2003 – 20th Rd	1	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Released – 3/28/04
BN	Carlos Silva	Int’l FA – 1996	7	8-1, 3.83 ERA, 89 K, 59 BB, 171.1 IP	Traded to MIN- 12/3/03
BN	Jason Donald	2006 – 3rd Rd	3	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to CLE – 7/29/09
BN	Lou Marson	2004 – 4th Rd	5	8 gm, .286/.375/.476, 1 HR, 2 RBI	Traded to CLE – 7/29/09
BN	Nick Punto	1998 – 21st Rd	5	77 gm, .223/.273/.272, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB	Traded to Min – 12/3/03
BN	Jason Michaels	1998 – 4th Rd	7	383 gm, .291/.380/.442, 21 HR, 100 RBI, 6 SB	Traded to CLE – 1/27/06

June Amateur Draft

Well, they’ve done very well in the first few rounds of the draft. Clearly, adding players like Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Brett Myers in the first round is going to help. But the team has done well in the next 3 rounds as well, getting Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Scott Rolen, and Randy Wolf. This is one of the first teams that I can remember where I was able to put a solid major league regular into nearly every spot in the lineup and into the starting rotation, and it’s almost entirely from the draft. But they’ve also done well in later rounds, with Domonic Brown being the highest potential of anyone they’ve drafted after the 10th round so far. Even the players that they drafted that have not done a whole lot (Jason Donald, Lou Marson) were both used to acquire Cliff Lee in 2009.

International Free Agency

They have not been as active in international free agency as some teams, but with the success they’ve had in the draft, it’s not as glaring as a problem. The team has only had two success stories from the IFA markets in Carlos Silva and Carlos Ruiz. While it’s not a lot, there’s a lot of hope for Ruiz yet.

Overall Grade

B+. With 2 home grown MVPs, and quite a few players who would be welcome on any team in Chase Utley, Scott Rolen, and Cole Hamels, the team has done extremely well at not only scouting these players, but developing them and getting production for their own team out of them as well. The only weakness is the bullpen, but I’ve kind of come to the conclusion that the bullpen is something that any team can fill in with a little diligence. The fact that they have solid regulars at every lineup position, and 5 excellent starting pitchers leads me to give them this good grade.

Midseason Review

We are halfway through the season and as happens every year, it doesn’t quite go exactly as we all thought it would.

Right before the season started, I wrote up my preseason predictions of how I thought the playoffs and awards would go:

American League

Correct so far: New York Yankees
Incorrect so far: Boston Red Sox (Tampa Bay Rays), Minnesota Twins (Chicago White Sox), Seattle Mariners (Texas Rangers)

National League

Correct so far: None
Incorrect so far: Philadelphia Phillies (Atlanta Braves), Chicago Cubs (Cincinnati Reds), Los Angeles Dodgers (San Diego Padres), St. Louis Cardinals (Colorado Rockies)

League Leaders at the Half

Batting Average: Miguel Cabrera (DET) and Josh Hamilton (TEX) – .346
Runs: Carl Crawford (TAM) – 70
Hits: Martin Prado (ATL) – 121
Home Runs: Jose Bautista (TOR) – 24
Runs Batted In: Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 77
Stolen Bases: Juan Pierre (CHW) – 32

Wins: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 15
ERA: Josh Johnson (FLA) – 1.70
Strikeouts: Jered Weaver (LAA) – 137
Saves: Joakim Soria (KC) – 25

The Top Stories

The Year of the Pitcher Again?

The pitchers look like they may have gained back some of the advantage again versus the hitters, as we’re seeing a lot of amazing performances out of both elite and non-elite pitchers.

Starting Pitchers with an ERA under 3.00: 17
Starting Pitchers with 10+ wins: 12
Starting Pitchers with a FIP under 3.00: 6
Starting Pitchers with a WHIP under 1.10: 14

And of course, there’s the no-hitters:

• Ubaldo Jimenez on April 17th against the Braves
• Dallas Braden on May 9th against the Rays (perfect game)
• Roy Halladay on May 29th against the Marlins (perfect game)
• Edwin Jackson on June 25th against the Rays

Let’s not forget Armando Galarraga either, and his near-perfecto on June 2nd.

Ken Griffey Jr Abruptly Retires

Almost randomly,  Ken Griffey Jr. announced his retirement on June 2nd. I wrote up my thoughts on his career shortly after the announcement, but the long and short of it remains that Griffey always seemed to be having more fun than anyone else on the field, and was really a joy to watch play, no matter what he was doing.  I have no doubt in my mind that he’s going into the Hall of Fame at first opportunity.

Sadly, the story was lost among the Armando Galarraga near perfect game, as it happened about an hour after the announcement. Hopefully the Mariners will have him back at some point before the end of the season to really give him a great sendoff.

The Cliff Lee Sweepstakes

The Mariners were widely predicted to win the AL West on the strength of the arms of Felix Hernandez and offseason acquisition Cliff Lee. Unfortunately, the team has floundered quite a bit, to the point where it became only a matter of time for the Mariners to start selling off the pieces, including their newly acquired ace Lee. The trade discussions centered around the unlikely competitors of the Reds, Twins, and Rangers, along with the usual suspects (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays). Nearly every top prospect in their systems was mentioned as the potential trade pieces in return. It was even stranger when the Mariners had come to a deal with the Yankees, only to have that one fall apart and be replaced by a trade with the Rangers. I wrote up what I thought of the trade, and really liked it for both teams involved.

Break Up the Reds and the Padres!

Completely unexpectedly, the Reds and the Padres are both leading their divisions as we approach the All-Star break. The Padres are doing it with the best pitching in the Majors, led by young phenom Mat Latos (10-4, 2.45) and top power hitter Adrian Gonzalez (.301, 18 HR, 56 RBI). The Reds are being led by MVP candidate Joey Votto (.315, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 1.014 OPS), and a resurgent Scott Rolen (.292, 17 HR, 57 RBI). I honestly think that barring some unexpected injuries or other unusual circumstances, both teams have the talent available to hold on to their leads throughout the rest of the season.

3 Teams, A Maxiumum of 2 Spots

The AL East continues to improve every single year, as the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees have been trading 1st through 3rd in the division back and forth all season. Through Friday’s games, all 3 teams have the 3 top records in the American League. Clearly, this presents a problem, as only 2 of them can make the playoffs. Someone is going to have to separate themselves at some point, but I’m not sure when that is going to happen. The Rays got off to a hot start, but have struggled of late. The Yankees got off to a slow start but have come on strong and now lead the division. Even the Red Sox are only 5 games back despite having suffered an unusually high amount of injuries. Someone is going to be sitting at home unhappy despite potentially winning 90+ games in that division.

Managers Available for Hire

We could be looking at potentially having nearly half the teams in the Majors change managers by the start of the 2011 season. 4 teams have already gotten the ball started, with Fredi Gonzalez (Marlins), Trey Hillman (Royals), Dave Trembley (Orioles) and A.J. Hinch of the Diamondbacks. In addition, major skippers like Joe Torre of the Dodgers and Lou Piniella of the Cubs are both in the final year of their contracts, and it appears that more and more that neither man is likely to return. And of course, there is the expected retirement of the Braves’ Bobby Cox and Blue Jays’ Cito Gaston after this season as well. Invariably, there will be some other managers that could lose their jobs before the start of next year, and my own speculation leads me to think that potentially teams like the Brewers, Pirates, Athletics and even the Mariners could all potentially see new managers as well.

The Rookie Class of 2010

It seems like this year’s rookie class is by far one of the best in many years. The season started out with Atlanta Braves’ OF Jason Heyward making the team out of Spring Training, and has not let up ever since. 13 of Baseball America’s Top 20 prospects have already made their debuts, and many of them are seeing a lot of success.

• Carlos Santana of the Indians is hitting .284 with 5 HR and 16 RBI since being called up on June 11th.
• Buster Posey of the Giants is hitting .333 with 6 HR and 20 RBI while playing both catcher and first base.
• Tyler Colvin of the Cubs has hit 12 homeruns in part time playing time so far this season.
• Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch of the Tigers have been going back and forth for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Jackson got off to a hot start, but Boesch has passed him at this point. Boesch is leading all rookies with 12 homeruns and 48 runs batted in, and also is hitting .345.
• Gaby Sanchez of the Marlins is quietly hitting .299 with 9 homeruns and 38 runs batted in.
• Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals has exceeded all expectations, posting an 8-4 record with a 2.17 ERA and 80 strikeouts so far.
• Mike Leake of the Reds surprised everyone by coming up without playing a single game in the minors and has a 6-1 record with a 3.53 ERA.
• Neftali Feliz of the Rangers has stabilized the back end of their bullpen, recording 23 saves and earning himself an All-Star appearance.

Other top prospects that have come up as well: Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates, Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Alcides Escobar of the Brewers, Ike Davis of the Mets, and Justin Smoak of the Rangers… er Mariners.

Clearly though, the most anticipated debut didn’t come until June 8th…

Strasburg

June 8th was the Major League debut of the phenom, Nationals’ top prospect Stephen Strasburg. His starts in the minors were selling out every time through. He was sent down to the Minors after Spring Training to work on his performance with runners on base. As if he was actually allowing any of those down there. His minor league numbers (AA and AAA): 11 starts, 7-2, 1.30 ERA, 65 strikeouts to 13 walks in 55 1/3 innings pitched. At times, his stuff looked absolutely dominant, but the concern remained: Could he repeat this performance at the Major League level?

For the most part, the answer to that question is a resounding Yes. His debut against the lowly Pirates: 14 strikeouts, 0 walks, and a victory in 7 innings. So far, he has a 3-2 record with a 2.32 ERA and 61 strikeouts in just 42 2/3 innings pitched. He has had some games where his control has been less than stellar, including the 5 walk performance against the Indians. I have to admit, I thought that he would have some struggles when he got up to the Majors, but I didn’t anticipate the excellent performance overall that he has given to this point. The longer that Jason Heyward stays on the disabled list, the more likely it becomes that Strasburg will win the Rookie of the Year award for the National League. He simply looks dominant out there in nearly every start, and the stuff he throws is simply amazing. I hope he can stay healthy long term, as he is really going to be something special if he can.

Overall Reactions

After so many games being played, it has been a really good season to this point. As it seems to happen every season, there are some things that don’t go the way everyone expects, but it definitely makes it more interesting when there are new stories that emerge over the span of the season. It looks like it’s going to be a good race in many of the divisions, and could go down to the wire.

No post on Tuesday this week, and I’ll be back with a new post on Wednesday.

All Star Roster Review

These were my predictions for the All-Star rosters that I posted back on Saturday, representing my final thoughts on who I thought would make the team. Looking at how my predictions went, I am actually reasonably pleased with how they turned out.

Correct selections:

AL: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Derek Jeter, Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera, Ty Wigginton, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Vernon Wells, Cliff Lee, David Price, Jon Lester, Trevor Cahill, Clay Buchholz, Mariano Rivera, Jose Valverde, Neftali Feliz

NL: Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun, Adrian Gonzalez, Martin Prado, David Wright, Scott Rolen, Jose Reyes, Corey Hart, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright, Matt Capps, Brandon Phillips

Incorrect:

AL Backup Catcher: I chose Mike Napoli as who I thought would be there, not really looking at Victor Martinez since he was injured at the time I made the pick. I’m not sold I agree with John Buck as the replacement for Martinez over Napoli, but it’s not a brutal choice. I think overall Napoli is going to have a better season, but they are pretty similar so far.

AL Backup Infielders: Paul Konerko and Kevin Youkilis are in the final vote, and in their place on the roster are Ian Kinsler (the replacement for Dustin Pedroia) and Alex Rodriguez. Part of the issue I had here was that I was not aware that the teams were required to take a utility player, which is where Wigginton fits on the roster. As a result, I didn’t take a 2B. I also didn’t include Pedroia because of his injury status, but he’s definitely deserving. A-Rod is also having a pretty good year, and I think this was my own personal bias. Knowing that the Yankees’ manager is managing the All-Star team, I probably should have seen that one.

AL Backup Outfielders: I think Choo would have made the team had he not gotten hurt just prior to the announcement, but when I made the selection it wasn’t for sure yet what his status was. Torii Hunter was selected as the only initial Angels’ player, and I think he’s definitely deserving as well. I do have a hard time looking at Jose Bautista on that roster with Alexis Rios who did not make the team, and is hitting better. The fact that the Blue Jays had Vernon Wells as well seems really odd to me. I don’t know how the player vote went (as he may have been a selection that was made by them), but it seems like a bit of an omission. Brett Gardner is having a great year, and he’s probably the player I would have left off in lieu of another infielder had I known I needed one.

AL Backup Designated Hitter: David Ortiz is probably more deserving than Jose Guillen was, but I knew I needed a Royal and liked a lot of the other relievers available more than Joakim Soria.

AL Pitching Staff

• Jered Weaver was added to the roster in place of C.C. Sabathia (who will start on the Sunday prior to the All-Star game), which was the most glaring omission to me.
• Andy Pettitte was added to the roster to replace the injured Clay Buchholz, but they did not have him on the initial roster.
• The exclusion of Shin-Soo Choo due to injury required the Indians to have an All-Star on the pitching staff, and they went with Fausto Carmona instead. Look, someone had to be selected from the Indians, but it just shows how badly the rest of that team played.
• Rafael Soriano was added to the roster to replace Mariano Rivera, who will rest instead of playing in the game.
• I initially had Trevor Cahill as the replacement on the roster for the injured Shaun Marcum, who did not make the team. As a result, I also had Andrew Bailey on the initial roster as the A’s lone representative. They went with Matt Thornton of the White Sox, who is having an excellent season and is well deserving of the honor.
• Phil Hughes is in the roster spot that I had for Colby Lewis. I think both are having excellent seasons and this is more of Girardi picking his guy when there are two similar players. I can understand that.

NL Backup Catcher: They selected Brian McCann over Miguel Olivo, and I don’t think that was a bad choice. Olivo is having a very nice offensive season, but McCann is the catcher for an excellent pitching staff on the first place Braves. The Capitol Avenue Club had a great post last week about how many times McCann has been snubbed when he was having amazing offensive seasons, so it is good to see a little bit of balance here.

NL Backup Infielders:

• Clearly, the most glaring omission is the selection of Ryan Howard over Joey Votto. Howard is having a fine year, and I can even understand wanting to reward your player when you’re the manager. But clearly someone should have been left off the roster in place of Joey Votto who is having an MVP caliber season for the Reds. He is in the final vote (along with 4 of my All-Star selections), and I hope he gets in somehow. The Reds are a first place team, and Votto has clearly been their best player to this point.
• I am not really worried about the missed selection of Placido Polanco, as I had already replaced him on the roster with Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is on the final ballot, but I don’t think he’ll end up making the team.
• Omar Infante as the utility player makes sense based on his 2009 season, but I really wonder if there wasn’t some other player that could have been selected that could play more positions. I will say this much: His selection makes a whole heck of a lot more sense once Charlie Manuel came out and said they needed the utility player. I mean, even the player himself thought he was being notified he had been traded, not made the All-Star team.
• I didn’t have Troy Tulowitzki due to his injuries, and the replacement ended up being Jose Reyes. I’m still not sold that Reyes is necessarily the right selection, but I don’t think he’s a poor one either.
• Leaving Troy Glaus off the roster seems to me like it’s just a crunch at 1B. I understand it, but he’s been a boon for the first place Braves.

NL Backup Outfielders:

This is where I differed most from the actual team, as I missed 5 of them. 3 of them were the lone representatives for their team, so there’s three matching incorrect pitchers as well.

• I picked Andrew McCutchen as the lone Pirates representative, and the team selected Evan Meek to represent them instead. Looking at the game as a winnable game, Meek is probably the more important player to have, and he is having an excellent season as well.
• I picked Roy Oswalt as the lone deserving rep from the Astros, and they chose Michael Bourn instead. Bourn is having a reasonably good season, but I completely disagree on this one. I think his spot on the pitching staff was held by Yovani Gallardo, who could end up being replaced due to his injury anyway.
• Chris Young instead of Justin Upton. As I looked at the numbers again, they got that one right. Young is having the better season pretty easily at the moment.
• Matt Holliday was chosen over Colby Rasmus, and whoever made that selection got it wrong. I think that Holliday was selected a lot on his 2009 second half, as he’s only been hot of late in 2010. Rasmus will get his shot someday though.
• Jayson Werth I think is the player who got crunched as a result of the lone Cubs’ representative, Marlon Byrd. Byrd is having an excellent season, and I think he’s a good pick.
• Carlos Gonzalez is also in the final vote, and I think he’s the player who ended up getting crunched by the utility player needing to be on the roster. I don’t think they have made a selection to replace the injured Jason Heyward yet, and think Gonzalez would be the first choice. Hopefully anyway, as he’s having an amazing year.

NL Pitching Staff:

• Chris Carpenter and Yovani Gallardo both made the roster, leaving my choices of Roy Oswalt and Mike Pelfrey off the roster. Neither pitcher is having a bad year, and the choices are solid ones. Gallardo is likely to be replaced on the roster due to injury, so one of them may still end up making the team.
• The bullpen is a complete mess to me. How the Padres only got one representative overall, and no pitchers is beyond me. Heath Bell is in the final vote, but should probably be there regardless. I chose Luke Gregerson as my middle reliever, and Charlie Manuel chose Arthur Rhodes of the Reds. His choice is a good one here I think, as Rhodes may be having the best season of his career.
• Billy Wagner is on the final vote ballot, and Carlos Marmol was left off the roster since Marlon Byrd is representing the Cubs. In their places, Jonathan Broxton and Brian Wilson were selected. Neither of these two are necessarily bad choices, just not necessarily the ones I would have made based on the current season. It does appear, however, that Manuel is managing to win the game, and I probably would trust both Broxton and Wilson more than Marmol.

Overall, I got 43 out of 68 correct. It has been a really interesting experiment to see how close I can get to predicting the teams, and next season I think the thing to remember to look at will be who is managing the teams. Had I done that, I probably would have gotten another 3-4 players correct. I think next year’s goal will be to get over 80% of the roster correct, especially now that I know about the utility player rule as well.

In terms of the roster makeup itself, Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis stand out to me as the players who are the most deserving to be on the team but are not on there as of yet. I will be shocked if Votto doesn’t get onto that roster somehow, and a bit disappointed too.

My Final All-Star Predictions

Happy 4th of July to everyone! With the voting and teams to be announced today, I wanted to update what I thought would happen with the Major League All-Star teams prior to that:

These teams were created with the same rules that the managers in the game are required, that being 34 man rosters with 21 position players and 13 pitchers. Each team must also have a representative. The starters are based on the last voting results that were publicized.

Italicized selections are on the disabled list currently, and have been replaced with another player on the roster.

American League:

Starting Lineup
C – Joe Mauer (MIN)
1B – Justin Morneau (MIN)
2B – Robinson Cano (NYY)
3B – Evan Longoria (TAM)
SS – Derek Jeter (NYY)
OF – Carl Crawford (TAM), Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Josh Hamilton (TEX)
DH – Vladimir Guerrero (TEX)

Bench:

C – Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B – Miguel Cabrera (DET), Paul Konerko (CHW), Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
2B – Ty Wigginton (BAL)
3B – Adrian Beltre (BOS)
SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX)
OF – Alexis Rios (CHW), Vernon Wells (TOR), Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Brett Gardner (NYY)
DH – Jose Guillen (KC)

Pitching Staff:

Starters – Cliff Lee (SEA), David Price (TAM), Jered Weaver (LAA), Jon Lester (BOS), Colby Lewis (TEX), Andy Pettitte (NYY), Shaun Marcum (TOR), Trevor Cahill (OAK), Clay Buchholz (BOS)
Relievers – Mariano Rivera (NYY), Neftali Feliz (TEX), Rafael Soriano (TAM), Jose Valverde (DET), Andrew Bailey (OAK)

National League

Starting Lineup
C – Yadier Molina (STL)
1B – Albert Pujols (STL)
2B – Chase Utley (PHI)
3B – Placido Polanco (PHI)
SS – Hanley Ramirez (FLA)
OF – Andre Ethier (LAD), Jason Heyward (ATL), Ryan Braun (MIL)
DH – Joey Votto (CIN)

Bench:

C – Miguel Olivo (COL)
1B – Adrian Gonzalez (SD), Troy Glaus (ATL)
2B – Martin Prado (ATL), Brandon Phillips (CIN)
3B – David Wright (NYM), Scott Rolen (CIN), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS)
SS – Jose Reyes (NYM)
OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Jayson Werth (PHI), Justin Upton (ARI), Corey Hart (MIL), Colby Rasmus (STL), Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

Pitching Staff:

Starters – Roy Oswalt (HOU), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Roy Halladay (PHI), Josh Johnson (FLA), Tim Lincecum (SF), Tim Hudson (ATL), Adam Wainwright (STL), Mike Pelfrey (NYM)
Relievers – Luke Gregerson (SD), Heath Bell (SD), Matt Capps (WAS), Billy Wagner (ATL), Carlos Marmol (CHC)

Overall, I am actually a bit surprised just how difficult this process can be. There are a lot of players that are deserving of an All-Star appearance who are going to be crunched because of the requirement to have a representative from every team.  If I were to guess, I would be surprised if I got more than 60% right. I will post my review of the All-Star rosters, along with how I did with this final prediction (and the others as well) on Thursday.

The Month in Review – June 2010

As we rapidly approach the All Star break, I can honestly say that once again we’ve had quite a bit going on in the world of baseball to this point. Rookies making their debut all over the place, no-hitters everywhere (and near no-hitters), retirements, and of course the start of the trade deadline rumor mill.

All-Star Teams

Every month prior to the All-Star break, I will create my All-Star teams for each league. I plan on following the same guidelines given to the managers of the All-Star game when selecting my teams for each month. Those would be:

• 34 man rosters, 21 position players, 13 pitchers
• Each team must be represented

Now that we’ve received the final voting updates for the All-Star game, I will start the lineups with that, and build the team around that. All stats are through Tuesday’s games.

American League

American League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Joe Mauer	MIN	.302	.378	41	3	34	1
1B	Justin Morneau	MIN	.347	.445	47	15	50	0
2B	Robinson Cano	NYY	.358	.407	56	15	53	2
3B	Evan Longoria	TAM	.296	.373	46	12	53	12
SS	Derek Jeter	NYY	.286	.346	50	8	39	8
OF	Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	.335	.391	31	3	24	21
OF	Carl Crawford	TAM	.315	.379	57	7	38	27
OF	Josh Hamilton	TEX	.343	.386	52	18	58	6
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	TEX	.330	.375	49	16	63	4
American League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Mike Napoli	LAA	.262	.346	29	13	40	0
1B	Paul Konerko	CHW	.295	.389	40	12	52	1
1B	Miguel Cabrera	DET	.338	.414	57	20	67	2
1B	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	.301	.421	62	15	50	2
2B	Ty Wigginton	BAL	.262	.346	29	13	40	0
3B	Adrian Beltre	BOS	.349	.387	40	12	52	1
SS	Elvis Andrus	TEX	.296	.378	52	0	24	22
OF	Alexis Rios	CHW	.307	.365	49	13	40	21
OF	Vernon Wells	TOR	.288	.340	44	19	47	4
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	CLE	.285	.387	46	12	42	12
OF	Brett Gardner	NYY	.321	.403	49	3	23	24
DH	Jose Guillen	KC	.279	.342	41	13	47	1
American League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Cliff Lee	SEA	7	3	0	95.2	2.45	0.92	78
SP	Jered Weaver	LAA	7	3	0	101.2	3.01	1.09	118
SP	David Price	TAM	11	3	0	99.2	2.44	1.21	84
SP	Jon Lester	BOS	9	3	0	107	2.86	1.11	111
SP	Colby Lewis	TEX	7	5	0	98.2	3.28	1.07	94
SP	Andy Pettitte	NYY	9	2	0	99.1	2.72	1.16	74
SP	C.C. Sabathia	NYY	9	3	0	108.1	3.49	1.15	89
SP	Shaun Marcum	TOR	7	3	0	103.1	3.14	1.13	81
RP	Jose Valverde	DET	1	1	18	34	0.53	0.68	32
RP	Rafael Soriano	TAM	2	0	18	27.2	1.63	0.76	26
RP	Neftali Feliz	TEX	1	1	20	33.1	2.70	0.96	37
RP	Mariano Rivera	NYY	2	1	17	29.1	0.92	0.61	29
RP	Andrew Bailey	OAK	0	0	15	32	1.69	0.97	23

The National League

National League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Yadier Molina	STL	.235	.313	14	3	30	6
1B	Albert Pujols	STL	.312	.424	44	18	57	7
2B	Chase Utley	PHI	.277	.383	49	11	37	5
3B	Placido Polanco	PHI	.318	.349	39	5	27	3
SS	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	.293	.378	43	12	50	14
OF	Ryan Braun	MIL	.299	.358	48	11	49	11
OF	Andrew McCutchen*	PIT	.298	.378	48	7	24	19
OF	Andre Ethier	LAD	.312	.370	37	12	47	1
DH	Joey Votto	CIN	.313	.415	49	17	54	7
* – Injury replacement for Jason Heyward
National League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Miguel Olivo	COL	.308	.368	34	11	38	4
1B	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	.302	.395	42	16	51	0
1B	Troy Glaus	ATL	.264	.368	41	14	56	0
1B	Adam Dunn	WAS	.271	.361	43	17	47	0
2B	Martin Prado	ATL	.334	.376	55	7	33	3
3B	David Wright	NYM	.310	.392	43	14	61	13
3B	Scott Rolen	CIN	.301	.368	41	17	53	0
SS	Juan Uribe	SF	.270	.340	37	12	45	1
OF	Justin Upton	ARI	.268	.351	47	14	39	11
OF	Colby Rasmus	STL	.275	.370	46	16	40	8
OF	Corey Hart	MIL	.278	.345	39	18	60	4
OF	Carlos Gonzalez*	COL	.302	.330	47	12	46	11
*roster replacement for Jason Heyward
National League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	14	1	0	113	1.83	1.05	102
SP	Josh Johnson	FLA	8	3	0	108	1.83	0.96	107
SP	Roy Halladay	PHI	9	6	0	108	2.29	1.07	102
SP	Tim Lincecum	SF	8	3	0	103.2	3.12	1.25	117
SP	Mike Pelfrey	NYM	10	2	1	99.2	2.72	1.07	70
SP	Tim Hudson	ATL	8	3	0	106.1	2.37	1.17	51
SP	Jaime Garcia	STL	7	4	0	87.1	2.27	1.26	70
SP	Adam Wainwright	STL	11	5	0	119.1	2.34	1.03	114
RP	Matt Lindstrom	HOU	2	1	18	31.1	3.16	1.6	7.18
RP	Matt Capps	WAS	0	3	22	33.2	3.48	1.46	30
RP	Heath Bell	SD	3	0	21	32.2	1.93	1.41	43
RP	Billy Wagner	ATL	5	0	15	30.1	1.19	0.96	46
RP	Carlos Marmol	CHC	2	1	14	35.2	2.27	1.21	66

I took Jason Heyward out of the starting lineup since he has already stated that if he is selected, he won’t play due to his thumb injury. I picked McCutchen to replace him in the lineup as both Braun and Ethier are corner outfielders, and McCutchen plays CF. Other players who are likely to be replaced, but have not been as of yet: Chase Utley (who I would replace with Casey McGehee of the Brewers), and Placido Polanco (who I would replace with Ryan Zimmerman). Looking at the All-Star starters, the only one who really hasn’t done a whole lot offensively to deserve it at this point, to me anyway, is Yadier Molina. But it’s hard to argue with a catcher who has a pitching staff with 2 All-Star starting pitchers and a 3rd who is also deserving (Chris Carpenter).

My Award Winners to Date

AL MVP –  Miguel Cabrera (DET)
NL MVP – Albert Pujols (STL)
AL Cy Young – Cliff Lee (SEA)
NL Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
AL Rookie of the Year – Brennan Boesch (DET)
NL Rookie of the Year – Stephen Strasburg (WAS)

Weekly Links and Weeks in Review

May 31-June 6
June 7-June 13
June 14-June 20
June 21-June 27

June was an extremely busy month for stories, with so many that I had honestly forgotten a few of them before I reviewed my week-in-review posts.

• On June 2nd, Ken Griffey Jr. announced his retirement abruptly, about an hour before that evening’s game. I wrote up my thoughts about him here, and also wrote up my thoughts on him as a fantasy player over at FakeTeams.
• Unfortunately, the retirement of Griffey was overshadowed by the near-perfect game that was thrown on the same night by Tigers’ pitcher Armando Galarraga. By now, it seems to have blown over, as it is not really mentioned nearly as much as it was when it happened. I wrote up my thoughts on it at the time, and I think that they are still pretty apt a month later.
• It was a bit of an up-and-down month for Carlos Zambrano, as he was brought back into the rotation early on in the month, only to have blown his top in the dugout of his last start on the 25th. He is currently on the restricted list and is seeking treatment in New York. What that treatment is exactly for is anyone’s guess, but I would have to imagine it has something to do with his temper. Hopefully he’ll be able to return after the All-Star break to the form that had made him an All-Star previously.
• Yet another no-hitter was thrown in the month of June, with Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks throwing one on June 25th. The story with the no-hitter seemed to be 2 fold: One, that manager A.J. Hinch had left Jackson in the game to throw a total of 149 pitches to get through the start, and two, that Jackson had allowed 10 different baserunners without allowing a hit. Either way, it was probably one of the more improbable no-hitters that we have seen in awhile.
• June clearly was the month of rookie debuts. Some of the rookies making their season (or career) debuts in June: Pedro Alvarez, Brad Lincoln, and Jose Tabata of the Pirates, Dayan Viciedo of the White Sox, Madison Bumgarner of the Giants, Andrew Oliver of the Tigers, and Felix Doubront of the Red Sox. But there were 3 names that were covered more than any other, and with good reason: Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Santana of the Indians, and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals. Stanton has been a bit of a mixed bag to this point, hitting .217/.276/.348 with 2 homeruns and 3 stolen bases so far. In any other season, Santana would be the rookie debut most discussed, as he has caught fire and is hitting everything that moves in the American League. To date, Santana is hitting .333/.456/.704 with 8 doubles, 4 homeruns, and 14 runs batted in through 17 games.
• Clearly though, the story on everyone’s mind all month long has been the debut and subsequent starts of Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg electrified Nationals fans, and the league as a whole after striking out 14 in 7 innings in his debut against the Pirates on June 8th. He’s done nothing but pitch well ever since, and despite a 2-2 record, he now has a 2.27 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts to 7 walks in only 31 2/2 innings pitched. That’s a K/9 rate of 13.6, the highest of any starter so far this season. Having watched the highlights of all his starts, and parts of others as they happened, the kid is legit. With the injury of Jason Heyward toward the end of the month, the NL Rookie of the Year race is wide open and I think Strasburg could very well take it.
• The hot stove league has heated up slowly so far, with minor trades of Dontrelle Willis and Conor Jackson being the only players of note. But with Cliff Lee likely to be traded, and rumblings of Roy Oswalt being available, it is only a matter of time before there are many more deals to discuss. I plan to do reviews like I did during the offseason of some of the major ones when they happen.
• The MLB draft was also on June 8th, and the only real surprise of the first round was the fact that Nationals’ top pick Bryce Harper was announced as an outfielder, not a catcher. Clearly, this will make his path to the Majors that much faster, as his bat could be pretty close to Major league ready as it stands now.

What’s Coming in July

I am actually pretty well planned out for the month of July for posts. I went through teams #30 to #15 in my Original Draft Series, where I look at each organization and build a roster based on each player’s original professional franchise. In July, I will continue on with the series, posting about teams #14 through 11 later on in the month. In addition, I will be reviewing the rosters of the All-Star teams after they are announced on Sunday, and critiquing my own choices versus the managers. Also, I will look back on how the prospects I reviewed in the offseason have progressed so far, and how they are stacking up to my own predictions (wild as they may have been).

I will also be starting up the book reviews I had previously mentioned that I had hoped to do. The first book on the list is Fantasyland by Sam Walker. I also picked up a pair of older copies of Baseball America’s Almanac (the 2003 and 2008 editions) at a used book sale last week, and have been looking through some of the information for some post ideas, and found some pretty good ones so far.

Thanks again to all the readers, and if you’re enjoying the writing, please feel free to either write a comment on the posts, and take a few seconds to become a fan of Jason’s Baseball Blog on Facebook. You can do that here.

The Month in Review – May 2010

Now fully 1/3 of the way into the season at this point, we’re starting to see some separation between the elite teams in the Majors and the rest of the league. Although there are very few teams who have been blown out of their races to this point, there are a couple still, and many more who are not far from having that problem either.

All-Star Teams

I plan on following the same guidelines given to the managers of the All-Star game when selecting my teams for each month. Those would be:

• 34 man rosters, 21 position players, 13 pitchers
• Each team must be represented

Now that we’ve started receiving the voting updates for the All-Star, I will start the lineups with that, and build the team around that. All stats are through Sunday’s games.

American League

American League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Joe Mauer	MIN	.329	.404	.465	25	2	24	1
1B	Mark Teixeira	NYY	.221	.336	.390	31	8	34	0
2B	Robinson Cano	NYY	.362	.405	.607	36	10	37	2
3B	Evan Longoria	TAM	.325	.391	.577	35	10	42	10
SS	Derek Jeter	NYY	.297	.340	.425	32	5	31	5
OF	Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	.342	.393	.421	23	1	10	13
OF	Carl Crawford	TAM	.321	.376	.500	38	4	24	16
OF	Nelson Cruz	TEX	.327	.405	.729	19	10	34	7
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	TEX	.332	.361	.560	29	12	44	4
American League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
1B	Justin Morneau	MIN	.368	.488	.667	34	11	36	0
1B	Miguel Cabrera	DET	.352	.427	.670	33	14	48	2
OF	Alex Rios	CHW	.312	.368	.590	32	11	27	16
OF	Shin-Soo Choo	CLE	.280	.385	.446	26	7	25	9
IF	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	.298	.445	.573	45	10	29	1
DH	David Ortiz	BOS	.272	.348	.581	21	11	31	0
IF	Ty Wigginton	BAL	.288	.369	.565	23	13	32	0
C	John Jaso	TAM	.310	.425	.448	12	2	19	0
SS	Elvis Andrus	TEX	.311	.398	.350	35	0	13	18
3B	Jose Bautista	TOR	.250	.369	.600	37	16	41	3
OF	Vernon Wells	TOR	.301	.353	.602	34	13	36	2
DH	Jose Guillen	KC	.250	.324	.479	31	11	33	1
1B	Paul Konerko	CHW	.262	.366	.567	28	14	33	0
American League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Jon Lester	BOS	6	2	0	72.7	2.97	1.13	77
SP	Doug Fister	SEA	3	2	0	62	2.03	0.95	26
SP	Andy Pettitte	NYY	6	1	0	58.3	2.62	1.22	36
SP	Jeff Niemann	TAM	5	0	0	64.7	2.37	1.05	41
SP	Jered Weaver	LAA	4	2	0	68.7	3.01	1.15	74
SP	David Price	TAM	7	2	0	66.7	2.57	1.14	50
SP	Matt Garza	TAM	5	3	0	69.7	2.97	1.15	57
SP	Shaun Marcum	TOR	5	1	0	73	2.59	1.03	60
RP	Mariano Rivera	NYY	0	1	10	16.3	1.65	0.73	13
RP	Rafael Soriano	TAM	2	0	14	20.3	1.33	0.84	16
RP	Jose Valverde	DET	1	1	12	20.7	0.44	0.92	16
RP	Jon Rauch	MIN	1	1	12	20	2.70	1.25	14
RP	Andrew Bailey	OAK	0	1	10	19.7	1.37	1.02	11

And from the Senior Circuit…

National League Starters
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Yadier Molina	STL	.258	.335	.346	8	2	28	6
1B	Albert Pujols	STL	.310	.422	.572	31	12	38	3
2B	Chase Utley	PHI	.277	.397	.520	35	10	24	2
3B	Placido Polanco	PHI	.306	.342	.448	26	5	21	2
SS	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	.341	.462	.634	11	2	7	2
OF	Ryan Braun	MIL	.318	.385	.528	38	8	32	11
OF	Shane Victorino	PHI	.262	.317	.461	29	8	33	10
OF	Jayson Werth	PHI	.295	.369	.578	31	9	33	2
DH	Andre Ethier	LAD	.392	.457	.744	25	11	38	0
National League Reserves
Pos	Name	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	HR	RBI	SB
C	Rod Barajas	NYM	.270	.293	.539	21	10	28	0
2B	Kelly Johnson	ARI	.270	.373	.563	34	12	25	5
3B	Scott Rolen	CIN	.275	.344	.550	28	11	32	0
OF	Jason Heyward	ATL	.301	.421	.596	29	10	38	3
1B	Joey Votto	CIN	.312	.408	.553	29	10	33	6
3B	Casey McGehee	MIL	.302	.365	.513	25	9	41	1
SS	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	.298	.379	.484	27	8	26	6
1B	Jorge Cantu	FLA	.281	.332	.479	25	8	36	0
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	.299	.374	.571	26	10	27	1
OF	Jason Bay	NYM	.293	.381	.447	33	3	23	7
OF	Andrew McCutchen	PIT	.313	.380	.469	29	6	14	12
IF	Ryan Theriot	CHC	.286	.315	.316	24	0	14	9
National League Pitching Staff
Role	Name	Team	W	L	SV	IP	ERA	WHIP	K
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	9	1	0	71.3	0.88	0.93	61
SP	Roy Halladay	PHI	7	3	0	86	1.99	0.99	70
SP	Tim Lincecum	SF	5	1	0	66	3.00	1.12	80
SP	Jaime Garcia	STL	4	2	0	55.3	1.14	1.14	45
SP	Roy Oswalt	HOU	3	6	0	69	2.35	1.01	69
SP	Josh Johnson	FLA	5	2	0	70	2.19	1.04	69
SP	Carlos Silva	CHC	7	0	0	60.7	3.12	1.10	42
SP	Jon Garland	SD	6	2	0	67	2.15	1.28	42
RP	Heath Bell	SD	2	0	14	23	1.17	1.30	30
RP	Matt Capps	WAS	0	1	17	24.3	2.96	1.32	23
RP	Tyler Clippard	WAS	7	3	0	34.7	1.82	1.14	40
RP	Carlos Marmol	CHC	1	0	11	24.7	1.46	1.14	49
RP	Francisco Cordero	CIN	1	3	15	25	3.60	1.48	20

It’s interesting to see how things change. For the most part, each team had a player that had distinguished himself from his teammates, and the rosters are not surprisingly similar to the ones I wrote up in April.

My Award Winners to Date

AL MVP –  Miguel Cabrera (DET)
NL MVP – Albert Pujols (STL)
AL Cy Young – David Price (TAM)
NL Cy Young – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
AL Rookie of the Year – Austin Jackson (DET)
NL Rookie of the Year – Jason Heyward (ATL)

Weekly Links and Weeks in Review

May 3-May 9
May 10-May 18
May 19-May 23
May 24-May 30

The month of May was dominated by two perfect games (the first time two have been thrown in the same season since 1880), some more prospect call ups (Starlin Castro), and further injuries (Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Nelson Cruz). The Rays continue their dominance of the American League, as they will finish the month with the top record in the sport. The Reds have been the huge surprise, behind Joey Votto, a resurgent Scott Rolen, and rookie Mike Leake, they have the best record in the National League. The races are just going to continue to get more interesting as the months roll on here.

Fantasy Preview – Third Basemen

A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 15 Third Basemen for 2010

1. Alex Rodriguez – NYY
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
78	30	100	14	.286
Rodriguez missed almost 40 games last season, and still put up amazing numbers during that time. I can pretty easily see a return to 100 runs, 20 steals, and even possibly 40 homers for A-Rod. Throw in that there shouldn’t be quite as much pressure on him now that he’s won a championship for the Yankees, and he’s a definite first rounder and probably going to end up as a top-5 player for me.

2. David Wright – NYM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
88	10	72	27	.307
Wright was a huge disappointment for his owners last season, as they drafted him expecting something similar to a 30-30 season. Wright saw a huge spike in his strikeout rate last season, but still posted a similar walk rate. I’m inclined to believe that he’s due to rebound this season, and while his power may not necessarily get back to the 30 HR range necessarily, I can see a 25-25 guy in Wright with a great average.

3. Evan Longoria – 3B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
100	33	113	9	.281
Longoria posted another excellent season, building on an excellent rookie campaign in 2008. Longoria is still maturing, but in the Rays lineup he’s a pretty good lock to provide around 100 runs, 100 rbis, and 30 homers. Throw in the handful of steals, and he’s one of the few 3B who will provide value in all 5 categories.

4. Mark Reynolds
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
98	44	102	24	.260
I talked about Reynolds in the 1B preview as well. At 3B, the power and speed combination more than makes up for the drag he is going to be on your batting average. I still don’t think he’s likely to give you 40 HR again, but 30 HR and 20 stolen bases are definitely possible.

5. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
110	33	106	2	.292
Zimmerman, very quietly, has developed into an excellent fantasy 3B. Realistically, he’s one of only 2 fantasy useful players on the Nats, so he tends to be forgotten. However, don’t sleep on him, as he’s very likely to provide similar production to his 2009 season.

6. Kevin Youkilis – BOS
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
99	27	94	7	.305
You can see my thoughts about Youkilis in my 1B rankings. He’s another player who will provide stats in all categories, and in my opinion is much more valuable if you draft him to play 3B than if you draft him to play 1B.

7. Aramis Ramirez – CHC
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
46	15	65	2	.317
Ramirez spent a major portion of last season on the disabled list, missing nearly 2 months with a separated shoulder. As a result, he may be dropping in people’s rankings when looking solely at his season numbers. Looking at his season splits, Ramirez appears to be fully recovered from the injury (11 HR, .304 from July onward). As a result, I can see him returning to his 30 HR form, and driving in 100 again.

8. Chone Figgins – SEA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
114	5	54	42	.298
Figgins goes from a lineup with the Angels that really was run heavy, to a Mariners lineup that is probably similar in makeup. The biggest difference for Figgins himself is that he’s likely going to be hitting #2 in the order as opposed to leading off, due to the presence of Ichiro. He’s still a threat to steal 40 bags, and should still score quite a bit of runs. My only concern with drafting Figgins is that you’ve plugged a speed guy into a position where there are a majority of power hitters. You’ll want to make sure you get your power in some other positions, potentially 2B, SS or C.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
79	25	90	5	.330
I wrote about the Kung Fu Panda in my 1B rankings. Obviously, he provides more value at 3B than 1B, but he’s going to give you good production regardless of where you play him in your fantasy lineup.

10. Michael Young – TEX
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
76	22	68	8	.322
While Young no longer brings the added value of qualifying at SS, he’s still a solid value pick at 3B. His run total seems a bit low to me, but that is mostly due to his missing a couple weeks of time in September. I think he approaches 100 runs again this season, while posting similar numbers in the rest of the categories. A good solid player who unfortunately probably doesn’t have a lot of upside, but you still need players that provide as expected.

11. Gordon Beckham
Will qualify at 2B after 5 starts
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
58	14	63	7	.270
I wrote about Beckham in my 2B rankings since he’s the presumptive starter for the White Sox there. He’s a definite upside pick, as you’re hoping for potentially a 20-20 player. I think he can do that, and the positional flexibility will be nice as well.

12. Ian Stewart – COL
Also qualifies at 2B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
74	25	70	7	.228
I also wrote about Stewart in my 2B rankings. The warning remains the same – watch to see that he does in fact win one of the starting jobs. I would be shocked if he didn’t, but there’s always a chance I suppose.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
67	16	100	3	.289
Cantu is another under-the-radar type of player, as I really wasn’t aware he had driven in 100 last season or that he had posted useful numbers in the rest of the categories either. I am not sure he’ll post another 100 RBI this season, but he’ll probably be close to that number. His run total seems like it was a bit low as well, and could see that improving into the 75-80 range on the Marlins.

14. Casey Blake – LAD
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
84	18	79	3	.280
Blake quietly had another solid year in Los Angeles last season. He’s not going to provide you with elite production in any category, but he will provide at least some reasonable value to you in 4 of the categories. Another player who’s a better real-life player than a fantasy one. But still useful to be sure.

15. Chipper Jones – ATL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
80	18	71	4	.264
If you’re looking for the Chipper Jones of the early 2000s, you’ve come to the wrong place. At this point, he’s going to give you some power, and will provide some runs and rbi. I’m not sure that the batting average is going to rebound back to the .364 he hit in 2008, or even the .300 range in general. No upside here really, but another useful player. Just hope you don’t need him to provide great production, because that’s pretty unlikely at this point.

After my top 15, there’s a lot of players with minor flaws. You have players like Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre, who haven’t really been healthy. You’ve got younger players like Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnacion, who have not proven that they can play well for multiple seasons. You’ve got Chase Headley and Martin Prado, who have some upside, but only as late round picks. There’s definitely some high-risk, high-reward types out there. But I know I’d prefer to not have to take too many of those types of players on my team.

Tomorrow will be another fantasy preview, this time for SS.