Fantasy Rankings in Review – Outfielders

Back in February, I took my first shot at attempting to rank players for fantasy purposes. After a full season, I thought it wise to take a look back at how they went, and compare them to how it actually turned out and see if there is anything to be gained from it. Next up is the review of my OF rankings. I ranked 45 outfielders originally, and you can find them here.

Yahoo’s Top 25 Outfielders

1. Carlos Gonzalez
2. Carl Crawford
3. Josh Hamilton
4. Jose Bautista
5. Ryan Braun
6. Matt Holliday
7. Jayson Werth
8. Vladimir Guerrero
9. Alex Rios
10. Corey Hart
11. Shin-Soo Choo
12. Hunter Pence
13. Chris Young
14. Aubrey Huff
15. Delmon Young
16. Juan Pierre
17. Nick Swisher
18. Adam Dunn
19. Andrew McCutchen
20. Drew Stubbs
21. Angel Pagan
22. Ichiro Suzuki
23. Vernon Wells
24. Nelson Cruz
25. Brett Gardner

Notable Outfielders Outside the Top 25: Matt Kemp (26), Torii Hunter (27), Shane Victorino (28), Bobby Abreu (29), Andre Ethier (34), Jay Bruce (35), Justin Upton (41), Nick Markakis (46), Curtis Granderson (49), Alfonso Soriano

Trade Retrospective: Marlins Firesale Edition Part 4

For the final month of the season, I’ll be posting a slightly different set of trade retrospectives. In 1997, the Marlins, under owner Wayne Huizenga, won the whole thing, taking the World Series in 7 games in a walk-off victory over the Cleveland Indians. The team had assembled quite a collection of talented players, with Edgar Renteria, Bobby Bonilla, Moises Alou and Gary Sheffield anchoring the lineup and Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Livan Hernandez, and Robb Nen anchoring the pitching staff. However, the team was for sale, and had been prior to the championship. From Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun, on the morning after the victory:

The Marlins are in danger of being dismantled. Owner H. Wayne Huizenga put the club up for sale last summer and — even though the Marlins reached the World Series — figures to decrease the payroll this winter.

Well, it didn’t take all that long, and the pieces started falling pretty quickly. These posts will not be just surrounding 1 trade, but rather the whole of the work related to this firesale. You can find Part 1 of the series here, Part 2 here, and Part 3 here. This part covers the trades made during the 1998 season.

The Trades

May 14, 1998 – The Marlins acquire C Mike Piazza and 3B Todd Zeile from the Dodgers for OF Gary Sheffield, C Charles Johnson, OF Jim Eisenreigh, OF Bobby Bonilla, and P Manuel Barrios
May 22, 1998 – The marlins acquire P Geoff Goetz, OF Preston Wilson, and P Ed Yarnall from the Mets for C Mike Piazza

The Moving Pieces

In Los Angeles, Sheffield, Johnson, and Bonilla were all slotted into the starting lineup, with Eisenreich providing a bat off the bench.

In New York, Piazza became the middle of the order bat and catcher that the team desperately needed.

In Florida, Todd Zeile was slotted in as the starting 3B, Preston Wilson was sent to AAA Charlotte, and Ed Yarnall was sent to AA.

What Happened Next

In Los Angeles, Sheffield led the team’s offense with a .316 batting average and 16 homeruns in just 90 games that season. Johnson finished the season in LA with a .217 batting average and 12 homeruns. Eisenreich provided a good bat off of the bench, and Bonilla would play in 72 games for the Dodgers, hitting just .237 with 7 home runs down the stretch.

In New York, Piazza helped the team with his production, hitting .348/.417/.607 in 109 games with 23 home runs and 76 runs batted in.

In Florida, Zeile went on to play in 66 games for the Marlins before being traded to the Ranger prior to the trade deadline. He hit .291 with 6 homeruns for the Fish.

The Net Moves

NY Mets – First Level

• Mike Piazza spent the next 8 seasons in Flushing, and made 6 All Star teams. He won 4 Silver Slugger awards, and hit 220 homeruns with a .296 batting average. He left via free agency after the 2005 season, and the Mets received no compensation for him.

Florida – First Level

• Ed Yarnall was included in the trade to the Yankees that acquired Mike Lowell for the Marlins. He spent just 1/2 a season with the Marlins in the minors, posting a 2-0 record in 2 starts with a 2.93 ERA.
• Todd Zeile played in just the 66 games with the Marlins before being traded to the Rangers for two minor leaguers, Daniel DeYoung and Jose Santo.
• Geoff Goetz was in the Marlins’ organization from 1998 to 2002, never reaching a level higher than AA. He has since bounced around, and played in the independent leagues in 2006 before retiring.
• Preston Wilson was with the Marlins for 4 seasons, posting a .262/.333/.473 line with 104 homeruns and 329 runs batted in. He was traded on November 16, 2002 along with Charles Johnson, Vic Darensbourg, and Pablo Ozuna to the Rockies for P Mike Hampton and OF Juan Pierre.

Dodgers – First Level

• Manuel Barrios made 1 appearance with the big club in 1998, his last season in the Majors. He was out of the organization after that year.
• Gary Sheffield would spend the 1998 season and the next 3 with the Dodgers, making 2 All Star teams and hitting .312 with 129 homeruns and 367 runs batted in. He was traded by the Dodgers on January 15, 2002 to the Braves in exchange for OF Brian Jordan, P Andrew Brown, and P Odalis Perez.
• Charles Johnson would spend only the remainder of the 1998 season in LA before being traded to the Orioles via the Mets. The Dodgers received C Todd Hundley and minor leaguer Arnold Gooch in return.
• Jim Eisenreich would play in 75 games as a pinch hitter and defensive replacement in 1998, and would retire at the end of the season.
• Bobby Bonilla played only the 1998 season in the city of Angels, and was traded to the Mets after the season for P Mel Rojas.

Florida – Second Level

• Mike Hampton was traded two days later to the Braves in exchange for P Tim Spooneybarger and minor leaguer Ryan Baker
• Juan Pierre spent 3 seasons in Florida, posting a .303/.354/.378 line with 167 stolen bases in 486 games. After the 2005 season he was traded to the Cubs in exchange for P Sergio Mitre, P Ricky Nolasco, and P Reynel Pinto.

Dodgers – Second Level

• Brian Jordan spent 2 seasons in L.A., hitting .289 with 24 home runs and 108 runs batted in. He left via free agency following the 2003 season and signed with the Rangers.
• Andrew Brown spent 2 seasons in the Dodgers’ minor league system before being sent to the Indians to complete the trade which acquired Milton Bradley from the Indians.
• Odalis Perez spent parts of 5 seasons pitching in the Dodgers’ rotation, posting a 45-40 record with a 3.94 ERA. He was traded to the Royals as a part of a package to acquire Elmer Dessens.
• Todd Hundley spent the next 2 seasons playing part time for the Dodgers, posting a .284 batting average in 2000. He left via free agency after the 2000 season, and no compensation was received.
• Arnold Gooch would not play in the Major leagues, and actually never pitched for the Dodgers’ organization either.
• Mel Rojas would pitch only 5 innings for the Dodgers before being traded to the Tigers for a package of minor leaguers.

Florida – Third Level

• Ricky Nolasco remains with the Marlins and has posted a 54-36 record with a 4.45 ERA in 716 innings.
• Sergio Mitre spent 2 seasons with the Marlins and posted a 6-13 record in 34 starts. He was released by the Marlins after the 2008 season, which he had missed with an arm injury.
• Reynel Pinto is currently in the Marlins organization, and has jumped between AAA and the Majors for most of his seasons. He has a 8-10 record with a 3.62 ERA in 231 innings pitched.

Overall Reactions

The Marlins were clearly trying to dump as much payroll as possible, as they gave up a lot of players to get the All-Star catcher Piazza in return. But the part that really seemed strange even then was that they team flipped him after playing just 5 games for the Fish. The winners of this trade clearly have to be the Mets and the Dodgers, if for no other reason than the Marlins didn’t really get a lot of production out of any of the players they received except for Juan Pierre and Ricky Nolasco. Piazza became an even bigger star in New York, and the Dodgers would get a lot of production out of Gary Sheffield in his time there.

After looking back on the trades, it becomes pretty clear that the Marlins were essentially trying to gather as many players as they could for the players that they got rid of. They say there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect, and the bulk of these trades tend to bring that point home.  So many of the prospects that they acquired through these trades did not turn into Major Leaguers, and while they did get the pieces for the next championship run, overall these trades still look pretty bad for the Marlins in hindsight.

Original Draft Series: #5 – Colorado Rockies

For those that missed the guidelines I am using for this series of posts, you can find them here.

Team #5: Colorado Rockies

General Managers(since 1994)

Bob Gebhart (1994-1998): 512-559
Dan O’Dowd (1999-Current): 769-852

Team Performance

Playoffs			Division Finish
WC	League	Playoff App	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Last
0	1	3	0	3	4	5	4

All information is drawn from Baseball Reference.

Position	Name	Acquired	Years with Org.	Stats with Organization	Left?
C	Chris Iannetta	2004 – 4th Rd	6	333 gm, .236/.355/.440, 48 HR, 178 RBI	Currently with Org.
1B	Todd Helton	1995 – 1st Rd (8)	15	5 All Star Appearances, 3 Gold Gloves, 4 Silver Sluggers 1906 gm, .324/.423/.556, 331 HR, 1230 RBI, 36 SB	Currently with Org.
2B	Chone Figgins	1997 – 4th Rd	4	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to LAA – 7/13/01
3B	Garrett Atkins	2000 – 5th Rd	9	773 gm, .289/.354/.457, 98 HR, 479 RBI	Non Tendered – 12/12/09
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	2005 – 1st Rd (7)	5	1 All Star Appearance 528 gm, .290/.362/.481, 78 HR, 302 RBI, 40 SB	Currently with Org.
LF	Matt Holliday	1998 – 7th Rd	10	3 All Star Appearances, 3 Silver Sluggers 698 gm, .319/.386/.552, 128 HR, 483 RBI, 66 SB	Traded to OAK – 11/10/08
CF	Juan Pierre	1998 – 13th Rd	4	359 gm, .308/.356/.371, 110 RBI, 100 SB	Traded to FLA – 11/16/02
RF	Brad Hawpe	2000 – 11th Rd	10	1 All Star Appearance 816 gm, .280/.374/.492, 118 HR, 464 RBI, 13 SB	Released – 7/26/10
DH	Ian Stewart	2003 – 1st Rd (10)	7	378 gm, .247/.333/.456, 54 HR, 180 RBI, 13 SB	Currently with Org.
SP	Ubaldo Jimenez	Int’l FA – 2001	9	1 All Star Appearance 48-34, 3.51 ERA, 690.2 IP, 611 K, 300 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Aaron Cook	1997 – 2nd Rd	13	1 All Star Appearance 68-58, 4.42 ERA, 1210.1 IP, 506 K, 370 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Jake Westbrook	1996 – 1st Rd(21)	1	No Major League Appearances with Org.	Traded to MON – 11/18/97
SP	Jeff Francis	2002 – 1st Rd (9)	8	55-48, 4.72 ERA, 871 IP, 595 K, 284 BB	Currently with Org.
SP	Jhoulys Chacin	Int’l FA – 2004	6	7-10, 3.80 ERA, 118.1 IP, 125 K, 61 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Jamey Wright	1993 – 1st Rd (28)	6	35-52, 5.40 ERA, 791.2 IP, 381 K, 387 BB	Traded to MIL – 12/13/99
RP	Matt Daley	Amateur FA – 2004	6	1-2, 4.09 ERA, 72.2 IP, 72 K, 27 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Franklin Morales	Int’l FA – 2002	8	7-9, 4.95 ERA, 127.1 IP, 93 K, 75 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Esmil Rogers	Int’l FA – 2003	7	2-2, 5.28 ERA, 59.2 IP, 52 K, 21 BB	Currently with Org.
RP	Greg Reynolds	2006 – 1st Rd (2)	4	2-8, 8.13 ERA, 62 IP, 22 K, 26 BB	Currently with Org.
CL	Manny Corpas	Int’l FA – 1999	11	12-16, 3.93 ERA, 34 SV, 286 IP, 206 K, 80 BB	Currently with Org.
BN	Clint Barmes	2000 – 10th Rd	10	649 gm, .254/.300/.405, 61 HR, 285 RBI, 39 SB	Currently with Org.
BN	Seth Smith	2004 – 2nd Rd	6	319 gm, .277/.352/.495, 35 HR, 119 RBI, 7 SB	Currently with Org.
BN	Eric Young Jr	2003 – 30th Rd	7	62 gm, .238/.301/.298, 4 RBI, 17 SB	Currently with Org.
BN	Dexter Fowler	2004 – 14th Rd	6	253 gm, .255/.351/.398, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 39 SB	Currently with Org.
BN	Juan Uribe	Int’l FA – 1997	6	672 gm, .251/.293/.431, 87 HR, 324 RBI, 16 SB	Traded to CHW – 12/2/03

June Amateur Draft

The Rockies have really capitalized on their draft picks, getting a lot of good players out of the first 5 rounds of the draft every season. Todd Helton is probably the best player that the Rockies have ever had, but right behind him are also Jeff Francis, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, and Brad Hawpe in terms of great players out of the draft. Nearly every position in the starting lineup also had a player who was reasonable to be on the bench for this group as well (Barmes, Smith, Uribe). I really like how this team has developed, and has also gotten better by moving Holliday prior to his free agency for Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street both.

International Free Agency

The Rockies haven’t been nearly as active in the international market as some other teams, but the players that they have gotten seem to have done very well for the team. Ubaldo Jimenez has developed into a definite #1 starter, and Manny Corpas has closed for the team in the past. While there are still a lot of works-in-progress, especially Franklin Morales and Esmil Rogers, the team seems to be going about the international market the right way.

Overall Grade

A. The Rockies have done well overall in both markets, and developed a very good team for this purpose. Nearly every player in their lineup was a potential All-Star when they were in their prime, and the Rockies caught quite a bit of those years as well. Their starting rotation is solid, and the bullpen is full of serviceable pitchers as well. Honestly, I even like their bench, as these players would probably be starters for a lot of the teams below them in the rankings.

Week in Review – July 19 to July 25

If the Playoffs Started Today

Tampa Bay Rays (59-38) vs. Texas Rangers (58-41)
Chicago White Sox (53-44) vs. New York Yankees (62-35)

San Francisco Giants (56-43) vs. Atlanta Braves (57-41)
St. Louis Cardinals (55-44) vs. San Diego Padres (58-39)

League Leaders

Batting Average – Josh Hamilton (TEX) .357
Runs – Mark Teixeira (NYY) 75
Home Runs – Jose Bautista (TOR) 27
Runs Batted In – Miguel Cabrera (DET) 88
Stolen Bases – Juan Pierre (CHW) 35

Wins – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) 15
Saves – Heath Bell (SD) and Brian Wilson (SF) 29
ERA – Josh Johnson (FLA) 1.61
Strikeouts – Jered Weaver (LAA) 147
WHIP – Cliff Lee (TEX) 0.92

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Ben Sheets, Aaron Laffey, Luis Atilano, David DeJesus, Ryan Doumit, Manny Ramirez, Andy Pettitte, Dustin Nippert, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Sweeney, Orlando Hudson, Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez,

Return from the Disabled List: Mat Latos, Ryan Ludwick, Sergio Mitre, Brian Roberts, Josh Beckett, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, Yovani Gallardo, Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Nate McLouth, Jed Lowrie, Will Venable, Mike Gonzalez, Oliver Perez, Clay Buchholz, Luis Castillo, Luke Scott, Maicer Izturis, Matt Wieters,

To the Minors: Jhoulys Chacin, Andrew Oliver

Called Up: Cedrick Bowers, Alex Gordon, Jose Arredondo, Scott Sizemore, Armando Galarraga

Trades:

• The Royals traded 3B Alberto Callaspo to the Angels for P Sean O’Sullivan and P Will Smith.
• The Diamondbacks traded SP Dan Haren to the Angels for SP Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and a player to be named later.

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• The Hall of Fame induction ceremonies were held on Sunday afternoon in Cooperstown, with Andre Dawson and Whitey Herzog being enshrined for their performances. Back in December, I wrote up my thoughts on whether Dawson was a Hall of Famer or not. (I thought he was)
• Alex Rodriguez hit his 599th homerun of his career this week, and will earn $6 million extra when he hits #600 due to a clause in his contract. Good for him.
• The Mariners are really looking like a mess, and I am thinking it is probably going to cost manager Don Wakamatsu his job before the end of the season. On Friday night, he got into a shouting argument in the dugout with Chone Figgins over Figgins’ lack of effort on a play in the 5th inning of that night’s game. I actually agree that Wakamatsu did the right thing by yanking Figgins from the game, but teams don’t fire players very often for this kind of stuff.
• The Moneyball movie has begun shooting finally, with Brad Pitt set to play GM Billy Beane, Jonah Hill to play Paul De Podesta, and Philip Seymour Hoffman playing manager Art Howe. Having been through the 2002 season as an A’s fan, and having read the book, this one’s going to be interesting. I’m wondering if the movie reopens the stats vs. scouts argument wounds again.
• Major League Baseball, very quietly, announced that minor leaguers will now be tested for HGH in addition to all the other things they are already tested for. I’d be shocked if the next collective bargaining agreement doesn’t have this test in it for Major Leaguers as well.
• The Angels made the big moves this week with acquiring 3B Alberto Callaspo first in the week and then making the huge splash with acquiring SP Dan Haren from the Diamondbacks for 4 prospects. Really like the trade for the Angels, hate it for every other team in the division (including my A’s).

From the Twitter Followers and Friends

If you aren’t yet, you can follow me over at Twitter here. These are some of the better reads I found from the previous week.

From the Hall of Very Good: HOVG posted a series of articles looking at the next group of players to be eligible for the Hall of Fame voting in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 (so far). Excellent reads from all of them.

From the Daily Something: Bill had a guest post from Jeff Polman which went ahead and played out the remainder of the 1994 season via Strat-o-Matic baseball. It’s a really interesting read, and Strat-o-Matic is something I keep reminding myself that I might enjoy when I have some more time.

Upcoming Posts This Week:

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday: A series I had not finished up from earlier in the month, the Original Draft Series, is a group of posts where I look at what an organization’s major league team could have looked like had they held onto every player that they either drafted or signed to their first professional contract. There may be 3 posts this week on this, or there may be 6 if I am feeling ambitious.

Friday:  Trade Retrospective of Johan Santana to the Mets. This one’s a bit newer than a lot of the trades I have reviewed previously, but the players in the deal have pretty much finalized what their value in the trade is going to be, so it’s ready to be looked at I believe.

One Other Thing

Lastly, I wanted to bring up a charity that the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has taken up. Here’s the official word, and what you can do:

Pitch In For Baseball is delighted to have been selected to participate in State Farm’s ‘Go To Bat’ campaign.  Now we need your
help!

‘Go To Bat’ was launched nationally during the State Farm Home Run Derby.  ‘Go To Bat’ gives entrants a chance to win tickets to the upcoming World Series and selected charity partners the chance to receive significant financial support.

Here’s how to play and how to help Pitch In For Baseball:

* Go to  www.statefarm.com/gotobat to register for your chance to win World Series tickets.
* As you register, you will get a chance to designate a charity that could win up to $25,000/week.
* To designate Pitch In For Baseball as your charity, select PUBLIC GOOD as the charity category and then choose Pitch In For
Baseball from the drop down list.
* Revisit www.statefarm.com/gotobat each day and play the ‘Go To Bat’ online game to increase your chances for tickets and Pitch In For
Baseball’s chance at financial support

Thanks to all the readers who help out with this. You can find a lot more information about Pitch In For Baseball at their website

Week in Review – July 12 to July 18

If the Playoffs Started Today

Tampa Bay Rays (55-36) vs. Texas Rangers (53-39)
Chicago White Sox (50-41) vs. New York Yankees (58-33)

Colorado Rockies (50-41) vs. Atlanta Braves (54-38)
St. Louis Cardinals (51-41) vs. San Diego Padres (54-37)

League Leaders

Batting Average – Josh Hamilton (TEX) .347
Runs – Carl Crawford (TAM) 70
Home Runs – Jose Bautista (TOR) 25
Runs Batted In – Miguel Cabrera (DET) 79
Stolen Bases – Juan Pierre (CHW) 33

Wins – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) 15
Saves – Heath Bell (SD) 26
ERA – Josh Johnson (FLA) 1.62
Strikeouts – Jered Weaver (LAA) 142
WHIP – Cliff Lee (TEX) 0.94

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Kerry Wood, Mat Latos, Mike Adams, Eric O’Flaherty, Reed Johnson, Matt Wieters, Justin Morneau, Doug Davis

Return from the Disabled List: Zach Duke, Manny Ramirez, Chad Durbin, Carlos Beltran, Jason Heyward, Placido Polanco

To the Minors: Jason Jaramillo, Dan Meyer, Brandon Hicks

Called Up: Allen Craig, Lorenzo Cain, Josh Bell

Trades:

• The Braves traded SS Yunel Escobar and P Jo-Jo Reyes to the Blue Jays for SS Alex Gonzalez and minor league prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky.

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• The All-Star Game festivities were this week, so there were only 4 days with games on them. The National League finally managed to get off the bench and win one, as they defeated the American League 3 to 1 on Tuesday. Brian McCann had the deciding hit, and was named the game’s MVP.  Manager Joe Girardi of the American League received a small ration of grief as well for not pinch running Alex Rodriguez for David Ortiz in the bottom of the 9th inning, but overall the game was pretty well played and well managed.
• The Home Run Derby on Monday was won by David Ortiz, and since the majority of the players participating had very little home run derby experience, it was nice to see them get so much national exposure.
• Sadly, the Yankee family lost a titan on Tuesday, with the passing of owner George Steinbrenner from a massive heart attack. I wrote up my thoughts on the Boss here.
• The All-Star break ended with a surprising trade, as the Braves sent their starting SS Yunel Escobar to the Blue Jays for their starting SS, Alex Gonzalez. It appears that Escobar was not well liked in the Braves’ clubhouse, and there seemed to be constant concern with a lack of effort from Escobar. A true challenge trade, it remains to be seen which side will win this trade in the end, but I actually think it could be good for both teams.
• It had been widely discussed that Padres’ ace Mat Latos would be on an innings limit, and there was talk that he might be placed on the disabled list so that he could be skipped for his next start and help to keep him near that innings limit. The surprise was the “injury” that he sustained to put him there. Apparently he tweaked a muscle trying not to sneeze. At least it’s not a deer meat injury.

From the Twitter Followers and Friends

If you aren’t yet, you can follow me over at Twitter here. These are some of the better reads I found from the previous week.

• From Wezen Ball – A guest post by Bill from the Daily Something about the Best Seasons by Players Who Never Made an All Star Team
• From the Kings of Kaufmann – They did a write up on what’s next for prospect Eric Hosmer now that he has been promoted to AA. I wrote about Hosmer in the offseason, and I think he’s really turned the corner at this point.
• From Colorado Springs Fantasy Baseball Addict – Daniel Aubain posted a link to an article by Eriq Gardner of Fantasy Ball Junkie where he talks about the two types of Fantasy Analysts, and I think his points are pretty dead on about it actually.

Upcoming Posts This Week:

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday: I will be continuing on with my series of posts about the 2003 BA Almanac, going over both the Minor League All-Stars  the Top 20 Prospects by League, and the 2002 Top 100 Prospect List

Friday:  Trade Retrospective of Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs. This one is a huge trade, since 4 teams were involved in it, and also clearly had an impact on the pennant races as well.

Other News

I also wanted to let everyone know that in addition to writing for Fake Teams, I am also now a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. The group of over 200 blogs has writers who cover nearly every aspect of baseball you could think of, and honestly a couple I had not thought of yet.

The BBA has, as a secondary aim, the goal of producing year-end awards in a similar fashion to the Baseball Writers of America.  These awards can be found here in October with links back to the voters, ensuring transparancy and, most likely, the onset of some good baseball arguments.

Over the coming weeks, I will be taking a look at a lot of them (there are so many!), and may potentially writeup a few of them. We’ll see what happens, but I’m really excited to be here!

One Other Thing

Lastly, I wanted to bring up a charity that the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has taken up. Here’s the official word, and what you can do:

Pitch In For Baseball is delighted to have been selected to participate in State Farm’s ‘Go To Bat’ campaign.  Now we need your
help!

‘Go To Bat’ was launched nationally during the State Farm Home Run Derby.  ‘Go To Bat’ gives entrants a chance to win tickets to the upcoming World Series and selected charity partners the chance to receive significant financial support.

Here’s how to play and how to help Pitch In For Baseball:

* Go to  www.statefarm.com/gotobat to register for your chance to win World Series tickets.
* As you register, you will get a chance to designate a charity that could win up to $25,000/week.
* To designate Pitch In For Baseball as your charity, select PUBLIC GOOD as the charity category and then choose Pitch In For
Baseball from the drop down list.
* Revisit www.statefarm.com/gotobat each day and play the ‘Go To Bat’ online game to increase your chances for tickets and Pitch In For
Baseball’s chance at financial support

Thanks to all the readers who help out with this. You can find a lot more information about Pitch In For Baseball at their website

Midseason Review

We are halfway through the season and as happens every year, it doesn’t quite go exactly as we all thought it would.

Right before the season started, I wrote up my preseason predictions of how I thought the playoffs and awards would go:

American League

Correct so far: New York Yankees
Incorrect so far: Boston Red Sox (Tampa Bay Rays), Minnesota Twins (Chicago White Sox), Seattle Mariners (Texas Rangers)

National League

Correct so far: None
Incorrect so far: Philadelphia Phillies (Atlanta Braves), Chicago Cubs (Cincinnati Reds), Los Angeles Dodgers (San Diego Padres), St. Louis Cardinals (Colorado Rockies)

League Leaders at the Half

Batting Average: Miguel Cabrera (DET) and Josh Hamilton (TEX) – .346
Runs: Carl Crawford (TAM) – 70
Hits: Martin Prado (ATL) – 121
Home Runs: Jose Bautista (TOR) – 24
Runs Batted In: Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 77
Stolen Bases: Juan Pierre (CHW) – 32

Wins: Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 15
ERA: Josh Johnson (FLA) – 1.70
Strikeouts: Jered Weaver (LAA) – 137
Saves: Joakim Soria (KC) – 25

The Top Stories

The Year of the Pitcher Again?

The pitchers look like they may have gained back some of the advantage again versus the hitters, as we’re seeing a lot of amazing performances out of both elite and non-elite pitchers.

Starting Pitchers with an ERA under 3.00: 17
Starting Pitchers with 10+ wins: 12
Starting Pitchers with a FIP under 3.00: 6
Starting Pitchers with a WHIP under 1.10: 14

And of course, there’s the no-hitters:

• Ubaldo Jimenez on April 17th against the Braves
• Dallas Braden on May 9th against the Rays (perfect game)
• Roy Halladay on May 29th against the Marlins (perfect game)
• Edwin Jackson on June 25th against the Rays

Let’s not forget Armando Galarraga either, and his near-perfecto on June 2nd.

Ken Griffey Jr Abruptly Retires

Almost randomly,  Ken Griffey Jr. announced his retirement on June 2nd. I wrote up my thoughts on his career shortly after the announcement, but the long and short of it remains that Griffey always seemed to be having more fun than anyone else on the field, and was really a joy to watch play, no matter what he was doing.  I have no doubt in my mind that he’s going into the Hall of Fame at first opportunity.

Sadly, the story was lost among the Armando Galarraga near perfect game, as it happened about an hour after the announcement. Hopefully the Mariners will have him back at some point before the end of the season to really give him a great sendoff.

The Cliff Lee Sweepstakes

The Mariners were widely predicted to win the AL West on the strength of the arms of Felix Hernandez and offseason acquisition Cliff Lee. Unfortunately, the team has floundered quite a bit, to the point where it became only a matter of time for the Mariners to start selling off the pieces, including their newly acquired ace Lee. The trade discussions centered around the unlikely competitors of the Reds, Twins, and Rangers, along with the usual suspects (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays). Nearly every top prospect in their systems was mentioned as the potential trade pieces in return. It was even stranger when the Mariners had come to a deal with the Yankees, only to have that one fall apart and be replaced by a trade with the Rangers. I wrote up what I thought of the trade, and really liked it for both teams involved.

Break Up the Reds and the Padres!

Completely unexpectedly, the Reds and the Padres are both leading their divisions as we approach the All-Star break. The Padres are doing it with the best pitching in the Majors, led by young phenom Mat Latos (10-4, 2.45) and top power hitter Adrian Gonzalez (.301, 18 HR, 56 RBI). The Reds are being led by MVP candidate Joey Votto (.315, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 1.014 OPS), and a resurgent Scott Rolen (.292, 17 HR, 57 RBI). I honestly think that barring some unexpected injuries or other unusual circumstances, both teams have the talent available to hold on to their leads throughout the rest of the season.

3 Teams, A Maxiumum of 2 Spots

The AL East continues to improve every single year, as the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees have been trading 1st through 3rd in the division back and forth all season. Through Friday’s games, all 3 teams have the 3 top records in the American League. Clearly, this presents a problem, as only 2 of them can make the playoffs. Someone is going to have to separate themselves at some point, but I’m not sure when that is going to happen. The Rays got off to a hot start, but have struggled of late. The Yankees got off to a slow start but have come on strong and now lead the division. Even the Red Sox are only 5 games back despite having suffered an unusually high amount of injuries. Someone is going to be sitting at home unhappy despite potentially winning 90+ games in that division.

Managers Available for Hire

We could be looking at potentially having nearly half the teams in the Majors change managers by the start of the 2011 season. 4 teams have already gotten the ball started, with Fredi Gonzalez (Marlins), Trey Hillman (Royals), Dave Trembley (Orioles) and A.J. Hinch of the Diamondbacks. In addition, major skippers like Joe Torre of the Dodgers and Lou Piniella of the Cubs are both in the final year of their contracts, and it appears that more and more that neither man is likely to return. And of course, there is the expected retirement of the Braves’ Bobby Cox and Blue Jays’ Cito Gaston after this season as well. Invariably, there will be some other managers that could lose their jobs before the start of next year, and my own speculation leads me to think that potentially teams like the Brewers, Pirates, Athletics and even the Mariners could all potentially see new managers as well.

The Rookie Class of 2010

It seems like this year’s rookie class is by far one of the best in many years. The season started out with Atlanta Braves’ OF Jason Heyward making the team out of Spring Training, and has not let up ever since. 13 of Baseball America’s Top 20 prospects have already made their debuts, and many of them are seeing a lot of success.

• Carlos Santana of the Indians is hitting .284 with 5 HR and 16 RBI since being called up on June 11th.
• Buster Posey of the Giants is hitting .333 with 6 HR and 20 RBI while playing both catcher and first base.
• Tyler Colvin of the Cubs has hit 12 homeruns in part time playing time so far this season.
• Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch of the Tigers have been going back and forth for the AL Rookie of the Year award. Jackson got off to a hot start, but Boesch has passed him at this point. Boesch is leading all rookies with 12 homeruns and 48 runs batted in, and also is hitting .345.
• Gaby Sanchez of the Marlins is quietly hitting .299 with 9 homeruns and 38 runs batted in.
• Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals has exceeded all expectations, posting an 8-4 record with a 2.17 ERA and 80 strikeouts so far.
• Mike Leake of the Reds surprised everyone by coming up without playing a single game in the minors and has a 6-1 record with a 3.53 ERA.
• Neftali Feliz of the Rangers has stabilized the back end of their bullpen, recording 23 saves and earning himself an All-Star appearance.

Other top prospects that have come up as well: Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates, Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Alcides Escobar of the Brewers, Ike Davis of the Mets, and Justin Smoak of the Rangers… er Mariners.

Clearly though, the most anticipated debut didn’t come until June 8th…

Strasburg

June 8th was the Major League debut of the phenom, Nationals’ top prospect Stephen Strasburg. His starts in the minors were selling out every time through. He was sent down to the Minors after Spring Training to work on his performance with runners on base. As if he was actually allowing any of those down there. His minor league numbers (AA and AAA): 11 starts, 7-2, 1.30 ERA, 65 strikeouts to 13 walks in 55 1/3 innings pitched. At times, his stuff looked absolutely dominant, but the concern remained: Could he repeat this performance at the Major League level?

For the most part, the answer to that question is a resounding Yes. His debut against the lowly Pirates: 14 strikeouts, 0 walks, and a victory in 7 innings. So far, he has a 3-2 record with a 2.32 ERA and 61 strikeouts in just 42 2/3 innings pitched. He has had some games where his control has been less than stellar, including the 5 walk performance against the Indians. I have to admit, I thought that he would have some struggles when he got up to the Majors, but I didn’t anticipate the excellent performance overall that he has given to this point. The longer that Jason Heyward stays on the disabled list, the more likely it becomes that Strasburg will win the Rookie of the Year award for the National League. He simply looks dominant out there in nearly every start, and the stuff he throws is simply amazing. I hope he can stay healthy long term, as he is really going to be something special if he can.

Overall Reactions

After so many games being played, it has been a really good season to this point. As it seems to happen every season, there are some things that don’t go the way everyone expects, but it definitely makes it more interesting when there are new stories that emerge over the span of the season. It looks like it’s going to be a good race in many of the divisions, and could go down to the wire.

No post on Tuesday this week, and I’ll be back with a new post on Wednesday.

Week in Review – June 21 to June 27

If the Playoffs Started Today

Boston Red Sox (46-31) vs. Texas Rangers (45-29)
Minnesota Twins (41-34) vs. New York Yankees (46-28)

New York Mets (43-32) vs. San Diego Padres (45-30)
Cincinnati Reds (42-34) vs. Atlanta Braves (44-32)

League Leaders

Batting Average – Robinson Cano (NYY) – .359
Runs – Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – 61
Home Runs – Miguel Cabrera (DET), Paul Konerko (CHW), Jose Bautista (TOR) – 20
Runs Batted In – Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 64
Stolen Bases – Juan Pierre (CHW) – 29

Wins – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 13
Saves – Matt Capps (WAS) – 22
ERA – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 1.60
Strikeouts – Jered Weaver (LAA) – 118
WHIP – Cliff Lee (SEA) – 0.91

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Dustin Pedroia, Mike Lowell, Felipe Paulino

Return from the Disabled List: Aramis Ramirez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jimmy Rollins, Nelson Cruz,

To the Minors: Sam LeCure, Dioner Navarro, Rick Porcello,

Called Up: Matt LaPorta, Madison Bumgarner, Brad Bergesen, Matt Joyce, Andrew Oliver,

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• Erik Bedard made two different rehab starts this week, and is tentatively slotted in to make his return to the Majors on July 6th.
• Tommy Hanson had a pair of forgettable starts this week, as he allowed a total of 14 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings pitched.
• Ubaldo Jimenez had what was probably his worst start of the season, allowing 6 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday. The regression was due at some point, and this could be it.
• Injuries abound over the week, especially if your jersey says Red Sox on the front. The day after hitting 3 homers in a game, Dustin Pedroia fouled a pitch off the inside of his foot, breaking it. Return timetable: Uncertain, but placed on the disabled list. On Saturday, starting pitcher Clay Buchholz hyperextended his knee running the bases in the second inning. Return timetable: Unknown. And on Sunday, catcher Victor Martinez took a foul ball off of his left thumb during the game, breaking the thumb. Return timetable: Too soon to know yet. What a terrible weekend it was for the Red Sox in San Francisco, despite winning.
• Edwin Jackson of the Diamondbacks threw the 4th no hitter of the season on Friday, throwing a season-high 149 pitches and walking 8 to do it. It’s been really interesting to see so many no-hitters, and reminds me a lot of the 1991 season, when there were 7 of them during the season.
• Manager A.J. Hinch of the Diamondbacks was given a lot of grief for allowing his pitcher to throw that many pitches in pursuit of a no-hitter, but I’m inclined to believe that the group of the manager, the pitcher, and the pitching coach are going to know what their player can and cannot handle.
• In a rather surprising move, the Marlins fired manager Fredi Gonzalez on Wednesday morning. The Marlins were in 4th place at the time, and ownership had made it pretty clear that they expected the team to be in the playoff hunt and make the playoffs at the end of the season. Whether or not that was really realistic remains to be seen, but the Marlins will continue to search for his replacement.
• I don’t think we can really discuss the week that was without discussing Big Z and his big blowup during his start on Friday afternoon. Whether or not he was trying to fire up the team remains to be seen, but the Cubs did not appreciate the behavior, pulled him from the start after 1 inning, and suspended him indefinitely. It’s really been a lost season both for the Cubs and Zambrano himself, and Big Z will be sent to the bullpen when his suspension is over.
• Saturday brought the season debut of Giants’ pitching prospect Madison Bumgarner. He pitched effectively in the loss, going 7 innings and not having 100 pitches in that time. If they keep him up the rest of the season, they will have added an excellent arm to an already top-tier pitching rotation.
• Andy Oliver was called up on Friday to take the rotation spot of the recently demoted Rick Porcello, making his major league debut. His debut was nothing particularly amazing, but Oliver is probably best known for his legal fight regarding his eligibility to pitch in college.
• Josh Hamilton has been hitting out of his mind for over 3 weeks now, as he is in the middle of a 21-game hitting streak. He has hit nearly .500 with a whole lot of power since the streak started.
• Jose Guillen is also in the midst of a 21 game hitting streak, but it appears that it has not been nearly as prolific as the one by Hamilton at this point.
• Stephen Strasburg continues to dominate major league hitters, and took his first loss of the season in a 1-0 game against the Royals this week. He now holds the record for most strikeouts in his first 4 starts of the career with 41 in that time.

Upcoming Posts This Week:

Tuesday: The Original Draft Series – Team #18 and #17
Wednesday: The Original Draft Series – Team #16 and #15
Thursday: The Month of June in Review
Friday:  Trade Retrospective – Rafael Palmeiro to the Rangers

The Week in Review: June 7-June 13

If the Playoffs Started Today

Tampa Bay Rays (40-23) vs. Minnesota Twins (36-27)
Texas Rangers (35-28) vs. New York Yankees (40-23)

Los Angeles Dodgers (36-27) vs. Atlanta Braves (37-27)
Cincinnati Reds (36-28) vs. San Diego Padres (37-26)

League Leaders

Batting Average – Robinson Cano (NYY) – .371
Runs – Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – 54
Home Runs – Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 19
Runs Batted In – Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 56
Stolen Bases – Juan Pierre (CHW) – 25

Wins – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 12
Saves – Matt Capps (WAS) – 20
ERA – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) – 1.16
Strikeouts – Dan Haren (ARI) – 97
WHIP – Cliff Lee (SEA) – 0.93

Roster Movement

To the Disabled List: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Nate McLouth, Rich Harden, J.J. Hardy, Jeremy Hermida, Aramis Ramirez, Orlando Hudson

Return from the Disabled List: Miguel Montero, George Sherrill, Ivan Rodriguez

To the Minors: Jake Fox, Lou Marson

Called Up: Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Brad Lincoln, Jose Tabata

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• Clearly, the dominant story on the baseball landscape this week was the much-anticipated debut of Stephen Strasburg on Tuesday. And boy did he not disappoint. 14 strikeouts and only 2 earned runs over 7 innings on Tuesday en route to his first major league victory. As a result of this, Sunday’s start at the Indians became almost as hyped. He pitched well enough to get a victory on Sunday, striking out 8 and only allowing 1 earned run. But there does appear to be a human being under there, as he walked 5 and only went 5 1/3 innings in that start.
• Not to be outdone, the Marlins called up top prospect Mike Stanton to make his debut on Tuesday as well. In the 5 games he has played since being called up, he has hit .368 with 4 runs batted in and 2 stolen bases. The strikeouts will remain a bit of a concern for him, but let’s remember that the kid is still just 20 years old, and probably likely to see at least a bit of growing pains.
• On Friday, the Indians called up their top prospect C Carlos Santana. He is hitting .273, but slugging .636 after a homerun and a double in Saturday’s game. He faced off against Strasburg in his start on Sunday, and was the only player in the Indians’ starting lineup to not strikeout against the phenom. Pretty good start so far.
• Lost in all these top prospects making their debuts was the fact that on Monday, Bryce Harper’s rights officially became the property of the Washington Nationals. I did find it interesting that the Nationals have announced already that he will be moved to the outfield immediately upon his signing. Looking at the Nationals’ minor league system, this is probably the fastest way for him to get to the Majors, and the Nats also have a solid prospect (Derek Norris) already at the catcher position who is more likely to make it to the Majors behind the plated before Harper would. Either way, Harper could very well end up making it to the Majors in two to three seasons at most, and is very likely to be no older than 20 when he does so. Lots of paydays in his future.

Links are a bit light this week, as I’ve been pretty busy. I am looking for some input from the readers, as I am starting to look into which prospects I should review in the offseason. My only rules really for this for the next offseason is that I want to preview a prospect from each team again. So if you have someone you think is going to be a top-10 prospect in an organization that you’d like to see a scouting report for, leave a comment and let me know.

Upcoming Posts This Week:

Tuesday: The Original Draft Series – Team #30 and #29
Wednesday: The Original Draft Series – Team #28 and #27
Thursday: The Original Draft Series – Team #26 and #25
Friday:  Trade Retrospective – Rickey Henderson to the Yankees

The Week in Review: May 10th – May 18th

A little bit longer of a week for review this time around, as I’m a bit behind what with some travel and such.

If the Playoffs Started Today

Texas (22-18) vs. Tampa Bay (28-11)
New York A (25-14) vs. Minnesota (24-15)

San Francisco (22-16) vs. Philadelphia (24-14)
Cincinnati (23-16) vs. San Diego (23-16)

Current Statistical Leaders:

Batting Average: Andre Ethier – .392
On Base Percentage: Justin Morneau – .482
Slugging Percentage: Andre Ethier – .744
Homeruns: Paul Konerko – 13
RBI: Andre Ethier – 38
Stolen Bases: Juan Pierre – 18
Runs: Matt Kemp – 34

Wins: Ubaldo Jimenez and Tyler Clippard – 7
ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez – 1.12
Strikeouts: Tim Lincecum – 69
WHIP: Doug Fister and Tim Lincecum – 0.94
Saves: Matt Capps – 14

Roster Movement and Job Changes

Disabled List Movement:

• Going onto the Disabled List: Justin Duchscherer, Andre Ethier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jim Edmonds, Eric Young Jr., John Baker, Matt Diaz, J.J. Hardy, Alfredo Aceves, Franklin Morales, Travis Snider, Brad Lidge
• Coming off the Disabled List: Yunel Escobar, Kurt Suzuki, Jason Hammel, Everth Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Hawpe

Call Ups and Demotions:

• Call Ups: Drew Storen, Armando Galarraga, Henry Rodriguez, Jack Cust, Derek Holland, Hank Blalock
• Sent Down to the Minors: Max Scherzer, Scott Sizemore, Wilson Ramos

Job Changes:

• To the Bullpen: Jeremy Bonderman, Javier Vazquez, Oliver Perez
• Now Closing: Jose Contreras

Top Stories and Weekly Links

• Yesterday, Mike Lowell was interviewed and essentially came to the conclusion that he is a waste of a roster spot for the Red Sox. While I tend to agree with the premise, and understand his frustration, the Red Sox are invariably going to do what they believe to be in the best interest of the team.
• Carlos Zambrano will be headed back to the starting rotation sometime in the near future. It’s probably good that this experiment is over, as he didn’t really appear to be pitching any better in the bullpen. Unfortunately this probably means that while Tom Gorzelanny has pitched well to this point, he’s likely headed to the bullpen.
• Andre Ethier‘s broken finger could very well set him back for a while.  Hopefully he’s not going to be out for too long, as he’s pretty much leading the league in every offensive category.
• Hanley Ramirez is in a bit of hot water, after spouting off for being benched yesterday. Frankly, it seems like both manager Fredi Gonzalez and Ramirez over-reacted a bit, but today will tell us whether or not it continues or finally resolves itself.
• The first manager to lose his job this season was the Royals’ Trey Hillman. He was replaced by Ned Yost. I’m not sure that this was Hillman’s fault, but the team was no longer responding and something needed to be done. I figure that at the end of the season, Dayton Moore will be next.
• Carlos Guillen will be coming off the disabled list soon, and he’s due for another position change again, as he’s being slotted in to play 2B for the Tigers. I thought this was actually a pretty smart decision, as Brennan Boesch is hitting the cover off the ball, and Scott Sizemore was not.

Fantasy Preview – Outfielders

A note about my rankings: I am assuming a standard scoring league (5×5) with the following categories:

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, ERA, K, WHIP

Also, I have done a lot of statistical analysis in the past, but I’m not ready to start calculating my own projections statistically. So for me, a lot of this is based entirely on gut feel (which of these 2 players would I want), and looking at previous performance. All statistics are from the 2009 season.

My top 45 Outfielders for 2010

1. Ryan Braun – MIL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
113	32	114	20	.320
What’s not to love about Ryan Braun the fantasy outfielder? He gives you elite runs and RBI, excellent power and batting average, and great speed. And he’s still young, and has the potential to improve even more. Seriously, Braun is a top-5 talent right now for fantasy, and would definitely be on the short list of players I would want to start a franchise around. I am extremely confident that Braun could give you all those stats again in 2010.

2. Matt Kemp – LAD
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
97	26	101	34	.297
As good as Braun has been, Kemp vaulted up into the same tier after his excellent 2009 season. Kemp is another top-10 type player who is going to provide you great value in all 5 categories. Honestly, I think that Kemp would actually put up better numbers than Braun if he didn’t play so many of his games in the spacious parks of the NL West. And he’s only going to be 25 to start the 2010 season. Another player on the short list to start a franchise around.

3. Matt Holliday – STL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
94	24	109	14	.313
Holliday started off slow last season while in Oakland, but really turned it up once he arrived in St. Louis. I’m sure that having that Pujols guy as protection for you in the batting order doesn’t hurt, but I think that the Holliday we saw in the second half is legit. I can see him posting another season of 100 runs scored, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and probably 10 steals, all while hitting around .320 again. I don’t think that Holliday has any drop-off related to the gigantic contract that he signed in the offseason, but it may be something to watch for.

4. Carl Crawford – TAM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
96	15	68	60	.305
I put Crawford here because I think there is still some upside for him. I think that he’s probably not going to hit more than the 15 HR he hit last season, but I think there’s actually the potential for his SB total to increase on the career high he set last season. An elite basestealer who I believe has the potential to approach the 75-80 range, and post solid-to-great values in some other categories, and there’s a lot to like here. Something to keep an eye on will be his contract situation, as there remains the possibility for him to be traded midseason if the Rays fall out of it and cannot get him signed to an extension.

5. Justin Upton – ARI
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
84	26	86	20	.300
Upton really started showing us the potential we had all been hearing about last season. Despite missing almost 3 weeks in August due to injury, he still posted a 20-20 season, and was on pace to score 100 runs and drive in 100 also. And he’s still only going to be 22 years old this season. I think he probably has a 30-30 season in him at some point, but for this season, I think he probably posts a 25-20 season. He’s missed time in each of the last 2 seasons related to strains, so I’d be at least aware of that possibility, but I wouldn’t put a lot of weight into it when you’re drafting him.

6. Torii Hunter – LAA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
74	22	90	18	.299
This is probably where you ask how on earth I can have Hunter this high. He missed over 30 games last season, and still put up an excellent season. While I don’t think that he necessarily will hit quite as well as he did last year, I can see a 90 run, 27 HR, 100+ RBI, 20 SB season with a .290 average. I’m a sucker for players that contribute well to all 5 categories. Although that could be all fantasy players. The Angels will look to him to really lead this team, as Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero are both gone. This is Hunter’s team, and I think he’ll thrive in the role.

7. Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
94	8	60	70	.301
Elite basestealer. Normally this is not going to be enough to get a ranking nearly this high. (Keep an eye out how much further Michael Bourn is to see that). But Ellsbury drives in runs at a reasonable rate, scores runs at a great rate, hits for a high average, and even provides some power. I think that if you draft Ellsbury, you’re pretty much able to ignore speed for quite a while after that. I think there’s actually some room for growth in his numbers this season with the changes that they have made to the lineup in Boston.

8. Jayson Werth – PHI
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
98	36	99	20	.268
I didn’t realize how good of a 2009 season that Werth had. He saw a spike in his fly-ball percentage (44% LY vs. 40% career), which probably lead to the increased homerun total. I don’t think he necessarily hits 36 again, but I think a 30-20 season is very reachable for Werth. The batting average is probably going to be in the same range, but with him likely to approach 100 runs and 100 RBI again, there’s quite a bit to like. I don’t necessarily prescribe to this idea, but he is also in a contract year. Something to file away in the back of  your mind.

I think this starts the next tier of outfielders. Werth was probably the last of the “elite” outfielders, in my opinion.

9. Grady Sizemore – CLE
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
73	18	64	13	.248
Sizemore probably hurt some of your fantasy teams pretty bad last year. Try to remember that the stats he didn’t give you last year have no affect on the quality he could potentially bring you this season. After offseason elbow and abdomen surgery, Sizemore has been cleared to practice at full-speed. I think that he sees a rebound to numbers close to his 2008 season, when he was a 30-30 outfielder. The slight risk I see based on the injuries of last year are what keep me from putting Sizemore back into the top 5 for outfielders.

10. Adam Lind – TOR
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
93	35	114	1	.305
Lind was one of the few bright spots on the 2009 Blue Jays, as he posted great numbers across the board. You’re not going to get speed from him, but the high average and excellent power more than make up for it. I think that Lind has a very good chance of repeating his 2009 season. He will be 26 this season, and I think that at some point in his career he’s going to top 40 HR in a season.

11. Bobby Abreu – LAA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
96	15	103	30	.293
Abreu is one of those players who never really comes to mind when talk begins of the best fantasy players, and the only reason I can think that is lies with his homerun total. He’s not particularly likely to hit even as many as 20 homeruns anymore, but he’s a professional hitter. He’s going to hit right around .300, score right around 100 runs, drive in right around 100 RBI, and steal between 25 and 30 bases. A very solid outfielder.

12. Ben Zobrist – TAM
Also qualifies at 2B and SS
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
91	27	91	17	.297
I also wrote about Zobrist in my 2B rankings. I think I have him ahead of some of the outfielders due simply to the positional eligibility he provides. It seems unlikely to me that any team is going to be using him in the OF, but there’s always the chance.

13. Andre Ethier – LAD
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
92	31	106	6	.272
The Dodgers have some pretty good outfielders, don’t they? Ethier posted career highs in runs, HR and RBI last season. I think there’s actually room for improvement on the batting average front as well, which could very well leave you with an outfielder with 100 runs, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB and a .285 average. Which also seems amazing considering all the time spent in the parks of the NL West. Ethier seems like he will be a hot commodity on draft day, and could go earlier than anticipated. Those owners may well end up extremely happy with that decision.

14. Curtis Granderson – NYY
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
91	30	71	20	.249
I think that Granderson has an even bigger season now that he’s playing at new Yankee Stadium. The place played like a bandbox last season, and I think there’s a very good possibility that between that and being in the better Yankee lineup, Granderson scores 100 runs, hits 35 HR, and drives in 90 runs. Even the batting average seems like it has the potential to head up to the .265-.270 range.

15. Shin-Soo Choo – CLE
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
87	20	86	21	.300
Choo helped to make up for some of the dropoff in performance from Grady Sizemore last year, and I think he actually can build on this performance. I can see getting closer to 100 Runs and RBI this season, providing the Indians lineup performs even slightly better than last year. Something interesting about Choo: At some point before he turns 30, he’s required to do 2 years of military service since he is a citizen of South Korea. It has happened in the past that players have been excused from this, but it’s something to keep an eye on if you are playing in a keeper league.

16. Adam Dunn – WAS
Also Qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
81	38	105	0	.267
I wrote about Dunn in my 1B rankings. He’s a lock to give you 35+ HR and 100+ RBI. Even the run total could see improvement on last year. Quietly, a very solid player.

17. Jason Bay – NYM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
103	36	119	13	.267
I don’t think that Jason Bay gives you these numbers again. If I did, he’d be in my top 10 outfielders. I think he sees a drop off in runs (probably to the 85-90 range), HR (probably toward 25-30), and RBI (probably to the 90-95 range). I just don’t have a whole lot of faith in the idea that Jason was not helped by playing at Fenway Park. Just remember that when you’re drafting him, you’re probably not going to get the same stats as last season.

18. Ichiro Suzuki – SEA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
88	11	48	26	.352
Ichiro remains a hitting machine, posting a .352 average and 225 hits despite missing almost 20 games during the span of the season. I think that he approaches 100 runs again, and could reach 40 steals potentially. But I wouldn’t bank on more than 25 steals and 8 homers out of Ichiro. He seems to be able to hit homers when he desires to, but is just as happy getting singles and stealing the bases instead. Pairing him with a high-power, low average group of hitters could be a good strategy to use Ichiro with.

I’d say that at this point, nearly everyone in this next group could be moved around based on what you think you need at that point in your draft. They’re all very similar to me in terms of value, and it’s really your preference.

19. Carlos Beltran – NYM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
50	10	48	11	.325
Beltran missed half of the season last year due to injury, and was having a very good season when he got hurt. If he’s 100% healthy, I could see him returning to his 100 run, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 20 steal form of previous years. I think that the ranking of him here is very aggressive considering that he seems unlikely to stay healthy for the full season. Definitely a lot of upside, and possibly a top-10 outfielder if he meets that upside.

20. Shane Victorino – PHI
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
102	10	62	25	.292
Victorino had a good well-rounded season, posting solid numbers in all categories. I think that Victorino is a lock to score 100 runs again in that powerful Phillies lineup. I also think he could steal over 30 bases again this season, and even possibly hit a few more homeruns as well.

21. Nelson Cruz – TEX
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
75	33	76	20	.260
I had no idea that Cruz had this good of a season last year. 2009 was really the first time Cruz got a full season at the Majors, and he provided a solid season as a result. My biggest concern with Cruz would be that he may have already peaked, as he turned 29 during the 2009 season. I think that he has some room for growth this year in batting average, and also possibly in runs as well.

22. Carlos Lee – HOU
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
65	26	102	5	.300
Lee isn’t going to steal double digit bases any more, and he seems really unlikely to score 100 runs again. He seems like an ideal candidate for the “Name not performance” award. He does have some good solid value still, as he’s practically a lock to hit 30 HR and 100 RBI with a .300 average. But I don’t think he’s a top-10 outfielder anymore, and it seems like there’s bound to be someone who will draft him like he is. I do think he does score closer to 80 runs this season as well, which still makes him a solid fantasy outfielder.

23. Michael Cuddyer – MIN
Also qualifies at 1B
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
93	32	94	6	.276
I originally had thought about Cuddyer as a candidate for my top-15 first basemen, but he ended up in the notes at the bottom instead. Cuddyer had a very good year last year, posting a career high in HR last season. I think he can repeat similar power (probably 30 or so), and conceivably repeat similar numbers in all other categories as well. I think he’s also has a pretty good chance at getting to 100 runs and 100 rbi again this season. Something to watch for: Cuddyer is going into the season as the starting RF, but has also played 1B and 3B previously for the Twins. If Nick Punto struggles really badly, I could see them conceivably moving Cuddyer if they feel that they can get better production with Jason Kubel in RF and Jim Thome as the DH.

24. Raul Ibanez – PHI
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
93	34	93	4	.272
Ibanez posted an amazing first half of the season, showing quite a bit of power (22 HR through June), but fell off a bit in the second half. That split concerns me, as he hit 12 in the second half. It is what keeps me from ranking him higher, as I think he’s probably more likely to hit 25 HR than 35. Ibanez will be 38 years old by the end of the 2010 season, and I just don’t think he can keep up this kind of performance for another season.

25. Adam Jones – BAL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
83	19	70	10	.277
Adam Jones is already showing just how good the return was on the Erik Bedard trade. He only played in 119 games last season, and I think that if he can stay healthy for a full season, he will post a 25-15 season with 90+ runs and RBI. The key to this whole theory being that he can stay healthy. Just remember to include that in your thoughts when drafting Jones.

26. Jason Kubel – MIN
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
73	28	103	1	.300
Kubel posted what was easily his best season to this point. The power is legitimate, and I can see him being good for 100 RBI again. I’m not 100% sold that he can repeat his batting average, partially due to a jump in his BABIP (.327 in ’09 compared to .295 in ’08 and .305 in ’07). While it’s not a huge spike, it could very well be the difference between him posting a .295 average and a .275 average. I do think that the run total could potentially see a little bit of growth, but probably not a whole lot more than 80 or so. He’s another player who I think could be forgotten about on draft day.

27. Hunter Pence – HOU
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
76	25	72	14	.282
Pence looks to me like he’s got a pretty good chance of repeating his 2009 season, as he essentially repeated his 2008 season, but with a slightly higher batting average. Pence was able to cut down a bit on his strikeouts in 2009 (18% vs. 21% career), and also increased his walk rate as well. I think that the thing that really appears to be holding Pence back is his own team. He really doesn’t seem likely to improve his run or RBI totals with the lineup that the Astros have built. It just doesn’t seem like it’s going to be that good.

28. Manny Ramirez – LAD
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
62	19	63	0	.290
Ramirez really wore down at the end of last season (.255/.379/.459 in the 2nd half), and that concern keeps me from ranking him too highly. Obviously, there’s a huge amount of upside possible with Ramirez, as he could conceivably post a 100-30-100-.300 season. I just won’t be the one to pay for it, because I’m a little wary of that not happening.  But if you’ve gotten some players with low risk, he could be worth it when he’s going to be drafted.

29. Andrew McCutchen – PIT
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
74	12	54	22	.286
McCutchen only played in 108 games last season, due to not being called up until the beginning of June. Once there, he cemented himself as the starting center fielder for the years to come in Pittsburgh. McCutchen could conceivably get to 100 runs, 20 homers, 80 rbi, and 30 steals if it all falls correctly for him. He’s a very good young player, and he’s only going to get better. He may see a little bit of an adjustment period with it being his sophomore season, but I think he eventually becomes a top-15 outfielder on a consistent basis.

30. Michael Bourn – HOU
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
97	3	35	61	.285
The speed is legitimate. Beyond that, it’s all a bit risky to me. He posted a career high batting average of .285 backed by a BABIP of .366. I think that there’s some chance of regression, but the .366 BABIP is not brutally out of line with his minor league numbers (.335 at AA, .353 at AAA). He’s not going to provide a lot of RBI or even more than the 3 HR he hit last season. But I think there’s still a chance he steals even more bases. Just try to temper your expectations on Bourn. The Astros’ lineup worries me a bit still, but as the leadoff hitter he should have the best chance to score of anyone on that team.

31. Nate McLouth – ATL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
86	20	70	19	.256
I actually like McLouth a lot for this season. Providing that you can get him at the right point in your draft. He missed some time last season, and could see a return to a 20-20 season again. The batting average is a bit of a drag, and it doesn’t appear to be that far out of his expected range unfortunately. He posted similar per-game numbers with both teams last season, so I’m not inclined to believe that he’s going to post a much better season due to spending the full year in Atlanta.

32. Carlos Quentin – CHW
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
47	21	56	3	.236
Quentin is another player who is coming back from an injury, and missed quite a bit of time as a result. He also posted an extremely low BABIP last season (.221 vs .278 in 2008), which should lead him to an increase in batting average if he regresses closer to his norm. I think that there’s a lot of upside here as well, with the potential for a 100-30-100 season out of Quentin. But he’s missed time in both seasons with the White Sox due to injuries, and the concern around these leads me to rank him lower than his talent probably would justify. I would want the potential to be that much higher as a result.

From this point on, you’re really getting into need. For me, all the players remaining are all extremely similar in terms of the value they provide to a fantasy team. Just figure out where you are needing some stats, and go from there.

33. Carlos Gonzalez – COL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
53	13	29	16	.284
Gonzalez appears to finally be showing the promise that made him the highlight of both the Dan Haren and Matt Holliday trades. Despite only playing in 89 games last year, he still posted excellent numbers. And he comes into Spring Training with what appears to be a very good chance to be an everyday player. In a full season, I think he can post 100 runs, 20 HR, 75 RBI, and 25 SB with a good average. The only real concern I have for Gonzalez is that the Rockies seem to have too many solid outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, Fowler, Smith), and as a result could see a loss of some playing time potentially for Gonzalez. Something to monitor in Spring Training if you get him. But I love the upside, and think he’s going to be extremely popular this season.

34. Johnny Damon – DET
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
107	24	82	12	.282
I don’t believe. He’s not going back to the Yankees, and I don’t believe in the homeruns or the runs scored based on him not being there. Someone is probably going to get a decent value on him, as he’s still out there as of this writing. Once he signs,  I think that he could conceivably score about 85-90 runs, hit 15-20 HR, and steal 10+ bases. But I don’t think that there’s a lot of upside for him without playing in that Yankee juggernaut.

35. Nick Markakis – BAL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
94	18	101	6	.293
Markakis is one of those players that I think ends up doing well on his name, as opposed to his actual numbers. I don’t see a full repeat of the numbers he posted last season, but I can see another 85 runs and 90 RBI season. The problem I keep running into is the power. Even with a spike of almost 8% in his fly ball rate, he hit even less homeruns. There’s still the potential for growth since he’s only going to be 26 during the 2010 season, but I’m not necessarily taking the risk. For me, the upside for Markakis appears to be what he did last season. Which is good, but not amazing. And for upside, I’d rather take some other players first.

36. Alex Rios – CHW
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
63	17	71	24	.247
He can’t be as bad as that batting average, right? I think he may rebound this season, but it really speaks to me that the Blue Jays were willing to give up on the talent for just salary relief. He has the potential to post a 25-25 season I think, but at this point the risk that he continues to be what he did in Chicago (.199/.229/.301) is what keeps me from drafting him like he could do that.

37. B.J. Upton – TAM
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
79	11	55	42	.241
The batting average is a concern, especially since his BABIP of .310 was actually fairly solid. I think he could very well hit .250 again. The steals are nice, but I’m not convinced that he could give you a 20-20 season again. I’m not really sold he will give you 40 steals again, but I think he’s got a better shot of that. Strikeouts remain a problem, as he had 152 last season against only 57 walks. If he can improve that ratio, he could see some improvement, but I’m not inclined to believe it will happen.

38. Josh Hamilton – TEX
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
43	10	54	8	.268
Hamilton is probably one of the higher-upside high risk players you could draft. If he’s back to 100% healthy (both mentally and physically), he could be an elite outfielder again. But this remains a player who has missed significant time in 2 of the last 3 seasons. And while I do have to remind myself that he is still developing, I’m averse to the risk in this case. I’ll let someone else take the chance on him. If he does perform to his potential, he could post an 85 run, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 15 steal season with a .280 average. But the odds of that seem really low to me.

39. Alfonso Soriano – CHC
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
64	20	55	9	.241
The Cubs would probably like a do-over on this contract. Soriano missed quite a bit of time last season due to injury, and will look to rebound in 2010. His batting average should improve, as he posted a BABIP about 20-25 points lower than his career norms. I think that he’s more likely to have a similar season to 2009, with probably about 80 RBI instead of 55, and a few more homeruns as well. But I think that his days as a top-10 outfielder are over, and I don’t think he steals more than 15 bases this season. At this point he’s just not quite the same player he once was.

40. Brad Hawpe – COL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
82	23	86	1	.285
Hawpe is always knocked as a player who benefits from playing at Coors Field, but the dropoff between home and away does not seem that severe to me. (.297/.397/520 at home, .275/.372/.518 on the road). Something to watch about Hawpe would be whether or not the Rockies consider moving him mid-season. There was rumor that he may get moved during the offseason, but remains with the Rockies. I think they’d have to hold onto him unless they’re blown away by whatever is offered, as he remains a solid power hitter. I don’t think the upside to get to 100 runs or 100 RBI is there for Hawpe, but he’s still likely to provide solid production in 4 categories. Probably a fair 2nd outfielder or great 3rd outfielder for a fantasy team.

41. Franklin Gutierrez – SEA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
85	18	70	16	.283
Gutierrez quietly had a very solid season last year. he’s not going to provide top-tier stats in any category, but he will provide you with value in all 5 categories. I think he has the potential to post a 20-20 season at some point in his career, but I’m not convinced it will be this season. But he should still give you about 15 HR and 15 steals to go with a solid batting average and run totals.

42. Denard Span – MIN
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
97	8	68	23	.311
Span finally got consistent playing time, and made great use of it. Span probably drops slightly in batting average this season, but we’re talking about him still being around .300, so it’s not really that much of a drop. He’s not likely to be a power hitter, probably providing no more than the 8 homeruns he had last season. But if you pair him with someone like Adam Lind or Adam Dunn, he’s going to be a great balance and give you solid production from a 3rd outfielder.

43. Juan Rivera – LAA
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
72	25	88	0	.287
Rivera was healthy for the most part in 2009, and his numbers really showed it. He cemented himself as a starter in the Angels’ outfield last year, and with the trade of Gary Matthews Jr., this is unlikely to change. I think he’s going to provide similar numbers again in 2010. Reasonable power, and some solid run-production. He’s what I would call a “bland” player, in that none of the stats that he provides really stand out. But you need players like this on your team just like you need the ones that provide elite values.

44. Juan Pierre – CHW
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
57	0	31	30	.308
Pierre has finally been freed from the bench in Los Angeles, and will be a starter in Chicago. I don’t think he’s going to give you 60-70 steals anymore, but I can see him getting into the 50’s potentially with the Sox. He could very well get back to around 85-90 runs as well. And you should know better than to expect even a single homerun. But he’s likely to give you a solid batting average to go with those other stats. I think he adjusts to the American League just fine, as he has quite a track record of performance at this point in his career.

45. Nolan Reimold – BAL
R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
49	15	45	8	.279
As you get down into the 40s for outfielders, you’re mostly looking for upside. Or maybe that’s just me. Reimold only played a little more than half the season, and I think he could pretty easily post a 20-15 season with a full season. The upside is 85 runs, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 15 steals. Something to watch for is how the playing time sorts itself out. Reimold is probably going to lose a little playing time to Felix Pie, but could also see some time at 1B or DH as well. I can’t imagine that the Orioles think that Pie is the better long-term play, but I don’t imagine that they’ll ask me either. Not that they should.

From here, you’re really going to be looking for specific skills or stats. You’ve got lots of steals out there if you need them: Rajai Davis (41), Nyjer Morgan (42), Dexter Fowler (27). But for me, I tried to avoid players who didn’t provide at least reasonable value in 3-4 categories. There’s still some upside plays, with Vladimir Guerrero and Jay Bruce both having the potential to be special this season.

The one thing that I did notice is this: More than any other position, nearly every outfielder provides value with stolen bases. This seems unusual to me, and it’s something to keep in mind when you’re drafting. There are a lot of positions that don’t provide speed particularly well, but outfield is not one of them.

Tomorrow I will continue on with my fantasy previews, with the first half of my starting pitcher rankings.